TLC Weekly Update February 21, 2020

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Took me long enough to gather the daily trading records on the reference account to produce the updated monthly performance on Big-Game Hunter ES. Some people messaged me that I must be afraid of disclosing the losses. Some even think that the model must have lost everything. Well, BGH has been doing fine.

I do not pay much attention to the daily activities of BGH and downloading the daily statements is something I don’t like to do. Hence I batch process it once in a while. Until I find a way to automate the process, I will limit the updates to the monthly performance only.

I came across this video made by Nassim Taleb on some major misunderstanding of risk by the economist Richard Thaler. It is a must watch for all traders and investors. I have been advocating defensive money management for decades now. Nothing changed. People everywhere still not able to grasp the risk they are taking can actually put them out of any speculative game.

This week I finally get back on track with my exercise regime. My goal is to up my game this year from normal pull ups to single arm pull ups. It is a big challenge – I recall I was able to do that when I was a teenage. Wonder if I can train myself to do that at this age.

Given the virus outbreak, people are getting more cautious everywhere. Restaurants used to have long line up now have empty tables at peak hours. Fewer people going out to the malls. Personally, I am thankful to the technology we have now that I can video conference with people pretty much everywhere.

I guess it will be a long fight against the outbreak so stay safe and keep up with the hygiene routine!

My Journey to Fully Automate My Trading: How Did It All Begin

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In this internet age, people always question the authority of anyone who tries to make a point. That’s especially true when the point of view one has is completely different from what the mainstream beliefs are. Since my beliefs are at odds with the mainstream trading education community, I guess it is time to set the record strict so that you can decide for yourself why you should listen to me on things related to trading.

Interviewing Myself

I have a habit of interviewing traders (if they allow me to) and collecting answers from them if they prefer the questionnaire format. That adds up to several boxes of records over the years. Many of these traders are good traders whose life long trading experience are extremely useful to newcomers. However, my trader friends also prefer not being put in the limelight, so to speak. I can only use the information myself as oppose to publishing volumes of trader interviews.

One of the questions I always ask these traders is, “How it all begin?”

I am going to answer that myself. Right here, right now.

How It All Began

Many people get into trading because they learn about it from a friend or saw on TV how traders are making big money. If you are interested in making money quickly, you will give trading a try. That’s not what happened to me at all.

When I was young, I have no interest in money making. I did not have what they call entrepreneur spirit. I was not interested in the financial markets. My hobbies were reading books, playing chess and making my own electronic devices.

My older brother was completely opposite. He liked creating his own businesses. He had a keen sense about the financial markets since he was young. He was the person who, at the first opportunity he found, became a floor trader in the Toronto Stock Exchange.

As a young trader, being Asian no less, in a place dominated by very aggressive western people, who would have imagine that he can last six months?

He went on to set a record there – as a first time newcomer, he not only survived the game for a full year but also made 4 times his trading capital by the end of the year. He was the hottest new guy.

From there the direction of my life took a sharp turn. My mother believed that my brother’s new found prosperity was the way to go. My brother thought that my intention to become a full time academic was stupid. Without any other option, I had to give trading a try.

So I followed my brother’s footstep to became a floor trader at the Toronto Stock Exchange.

I also set a record there – I was the youngest floor trader they have accepted thanks partly to my brother’s star power and partly for my perfect score in their exam which never happened before. I had an advantage over others in taking the exam – the hardest part of the exam was related to option pricing and strategies which was damn easy for someone who spent most of his life studying math and science.

That’s why I do not think like others who try to beat this game.

I did not even want to play this game, for God’s sake.

That’s how my trading career started some thirty years ago.

TLC Weekly Update February 14, 2020

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I am busy working with my team to port the trading strategies from my training courses to support NinjaTrader. To my horror, we’ve found significant discrepancies among the data which in turn making the performance results not consistent. I will write more about this on DaytradingBias after we have completed our investigation.

I did not know that there has been no complete explanation explaining how planes can stay in the air. Interesting read for those interested in science and engineering stuff.

The coronavirus outbreak has serious implication to the global economy. At this point we do not have enough information to understand its full impact yet. One thing I know for sure is that retail stores and restaurants are in terrible shape everywhere where the virus has landed. The damage is done and it will show in first quarter economic data worldwide.

Earlier this week I uploaded a new video to Youtube to mock those people who brag about their day trading. From time to time, my readers will send me links to these videos and ask what I think about them, whether they are legit, etc. It is really a mindset issue – I think I explained very well in my Smarter Way to Trade series but who wants to be told that “they are not the chosen one”?

Just like to take this opportunity to wish you all a very happy Valentine’s Day!

TLC Weekly Update February 7, 2020

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Another totally messed up week with scheduling issues, stuck in traffic thanks to crazy weather here and heat to my place stopped working. Sometimes technologies really test our nerve. Looking at the bright side though, I managed to finish reading another book when my internet was fucked up all evening …

Yes, plain old printed books still rock!

I was working hard to come up with all kinds of ideas for my teaching videos on trading. I ended up with like 20 ideas, each I wrote like 10 pages of script and stopped. It is hard indeed to create something that is both educational and functional. Serious, if I go too negative, people walkaway without learning the lessons they need. If I go real gun ho and downplaying the difficulties of trading, people gets too excited and forget about the main points. Striking a balance is not easy.

I was a good lecturer way back then. I was a good mentor to hundreds if not more pro traders working for firms. But this goal of helping the retail traders is super challenging. How to disrupt people from fantasizing trading as something more than what it is? It is fun taking on a challenge like this.

For some interesting reason, I have to retell how I first get started in trading to quite a number of people this week. Maybe people need to know me better so that they are not that intimidated. I am sure I have written about this way back when somewhere. Maybe it is time to do it once more in one of my new article series for easy reference.

So many random thoughts this week. Next week should be better, I hope.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update January 31, 2020

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Completed my second webinar yesterday. The explanation webinar is really long overdue but I just couldn’t do it over past 2 years. So here it is, my introduction webinar about my Real-Time Commentaries service and my approach to discretionary day trading Emini.

It took several rewrites until yesterday before I am satisfied with the presentation. It is something I know will help a lot of traders, no matter they subscribe to my service or not. Hence I make it available for free!

I came across this story posted by Tim Ferriss. Trust me, just read it.

Nassim is doing it again, interesting read about tail events and the relationship with strength training. Not that I totally agree with him, but his examples on things not related to body fitness are good reminder of the importance of paying attention to tail events when building anything that is expected to be used rigorously in the real world.

I should finally have time to wrap up the reorganization of my office. That means it is time for me to decide if I will show up in my videos. Maybe time to find an acting coach?

Until next time, have a nice weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update January 24, 2020

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Time flies when you are having too many correspondence at the same time! My week was flooded with all kinds of messaging – emails, conference calls, instant messages … Many still ongoing so no end in sight with this challenge, yet.

Things should get better next week.

I came across this article on a better way to teach kids mathematics. Just as I thought, it is all about building a better foundation that matters most. I’ve been advocating this concept in trading education for years now … rarely anyone would listen. Maybe I should try harder.

Here is an interesting video of a stock market bubble you may never heard of. Check it out.

This Saturday is Chinese New Year. I guess I will have some unavoidable social gatherings then. Hopefully my schedule is not affected much by then.

My second webinar will be held on this coming Thursday 4:30 pm Eastern Time. For those of you interested in participating, check out my post here for more details.

Happy Chinese New Year!

TLC Weekly Update January 17, 2020

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Temperature is back down to –15C here in Toronto. Nature is reminding us that winter is not over yet …

Read about this drink from Ancient Rome, anyone tried that?

Falling into Grace by Adyashanti is a book that I read several years ago thanks to a good friend trying to help me out. It is a modern take on the mental issues we all face as human. Interesting, my brother just recommended the book to me lately. My brother consumed the book in audio form. Well, thanks for his reminder and I will have my son read it soon.

I was talking to my friend last week about philanthropic work that we plan to do in coming years. During the conversation I mentioned that medical research funding has often been misplaced due to the classic bias of committing more funding to those who had some kind of contribution or breakthrough in the past. My friend pointed out Albert Einstein is a prime example of this issue. Well, here is an article about Eintsein and I will let you decide if Einstein is really the genius everyone thinks.

Good news for all of you waiting for the NinjaTrader version of the day trading strategies offered in Trading Success Blueprint and Emini S&P Day Trading Course. My programmer told me the core part of the code is done. I will get a chance to see it working in real-time next week. If all goes well, we will have the complete set of strategies ready for download by February. Thank you to all of you who waited patiently for this!

DaytradingBias Under Attack Part 2

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Well, the attacks by bots on my site DaytradingBias.com has not stopped since I last reported that back in early December.

We’ve tried so many things but the sheer number of bots trying to take the site out is just too much to handle.

Luckily, one of the experts figured out a way to stop these attacks with a completely different approach like around 3 am this morning.

We’ve got that implemented and so far the result is better than everything we have seen before.

The site is now back to its top speed even when these bots are trying to take it down.

Amazing!

During this crisis, some of the new members who signed up in December were so frustrated with the problem that they choose to cancel the service. It was sad to see that happening. Maybe that’s the objective of these bots after all, rendering DaytradingBias not accessible.

I think we have finally turned the tide.

And DaytradingBias still stands.

TLC Weekly Update January 10, 2020

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The first real work week of year 2020 turns out to be as hectic as my schedule back in Hong Kong – long meetings with my business partners on new year goals and needs, pitching several investment opportunities to my friends with venture capital firms and family offices, and follow ups with programmers on various programming projects that must be completed this month.

It feels good to see things are getting done though. Last year was a challenging year as I tried to put in place all these foundations on automated trading for retail investors and training courses for retail traders, it takes grit for my team to see it through. I am very happy with what we have accomplished so far and I am sure year 2020 will be an amazing year.

Talking about grit, if you have not watch this video from Ted about it, you should. It is a short video from Angela Duckworth. In her own words, “Grit is the one measure that separate those who can achieve their long term goals from those who can’t.” For those of you who want to take on an ambitious goal this year, maybe you need the reminder to keep you on track.

Lately, I have been asked many times by others on whether the US stock market will see a correction. My answer is simple,”If you do not mind holding onto your long term positions with a 10 to 15 percent correction tomorrow, there is nothing to do. But if you mind or want to time the market, be ready for a market that takes full time attention from you to pull this off.”

I expect my work schedule to be very different from last year so I will have time to write on other things in this blog, not just the weekly updates. I have quite a number of requests asking me to write about other subjects from astrology to alternative medicines. I will make that happen.

People ask me why I keep writing these weekly updates. Well, it is my way to track my life so that, in retrospect, everyone can see if the 10 year and 12 year cycle are happening to me too. It is also my open journal to keep my loved ones knowing what I am up to since I may not be able to see them often given my schedule.

TLC Weekly Update January 3, 2020

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Good to be recovering from my sickness. One benefit from being ill is that I lose all the weight gained during the trip. So no need to figure out how to reduce those weight anymore. Just that getting a six-pack this year will still be quite far fetched … I am still hopeful!

Came across this article on using the mental technique of speaking to yourself in the third person can make you wiser. Well, it is exactly what I advocate for a long time to help traders improve their decision making ability. This technique is not something new as the article pointed out that even Julius Caesar used the method to improve his thought process.

Talking about New Year resolution – I have many projects that are yet to be completed. Given last year’s momentum, I am sure I can get quite a number of them wrapped up this year. The ones that I wanted to get done this year (in no particular order):

1. Courseware on Market Breadth Based Day Trading Strategies

2. At least 6 webinars / video lessons for DaytradingBias and the training courses

3. Release of my day trading strategies for gold future, bond future, etc.

4. Release of 2nd edition of Special Theory of Price Discovery

#4 holds very special meaning for me because having the 2nd edition released this year would be the 10th anniversary of the initial release of the first edition. I have the edited version of first edition on hand and I have already wrote like 50% more. I still feel like I have not put enough explanation there to help traders seeing the financial markets in my way, which is drastically different from the norm out there.

Very happy that I get to play these mini puzzles with my son last night. I picked up these puzzles while I was checking out the bookstores in Hong Kong. I cannot find them on Amazon though.

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It used to be me who finish the puzzle in no time. Now he beats me hands down. I blame it on my presbyopia!

Happy New Year!