TLC Weekly Update July 23, 2021

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Another all time high for the stock markets this week. What a stunning performance this week from down 2% to printing triple all time high records today. The big question remains – how long can it last?

My take as a day trader is to deal with it one day at a time. There is no point guessing when the markets will stop going higher or lower. Here is a good point made by Jeff Gundlach.

Hikaru took the challenge to play 5 miuntes to 1 minute odds games. When you look at his games with the other GMs in the world it is hard to realize how good a super GM really is. But then when he plays against normal people …

Read this piece from YouTube and confirmed the story myself. I am speechless of what Ontario is going to do to math and hard sciences in schools. I guess no opportunity is wasted when it comes to spreading this disease to the younger generations.

More work to be done for my projects. Good news is that I managed to complete tons of stuff this week. The bad news is that I hurt my right wrist badly due to extreme long hours of typing. My hand will get a break this weekend from typing. I guess I will focus on reading instead.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update June 18, 2021

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Quarterly option expiration Friday today and as expected with the stock market indices pinned lower. Nothing special yet the media continues to make up reasons for something that happens regularly. Is it that hard to figure out the third Friday of a quarter end? I am not trying to be mean here … could it be the case that many financial news reporters are having dyscalculia.

Those crypto fans with many followers have been very bullish about bitcoin for like a week now. They even come up with all kinds of charts with squiggly lines to show that Bitcoin has already “bottomed” and that it will go to $100,000 “very soon”. Well, I stand by my prediction made back in April through Twitter and here is the latest update of the chart that I added a few lines (once in mid-May and then Jun 1) to show how easy it is to read a chart like bitcoin due to its participants are mostly emotional beings.

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How do I know Bitcoin will go sideway for a month? It is simply basic chart reading. I even wrote a book on chart reading years ago showing how to do it. And here is rule #1 : read the chart from left to right only. Why? So that you cannot add opinions of your own after the fact.

Of course I can be wrong since charts only tell at most 60% of the story. For the well being of the crypto HODL crowd, I wish them luck and that I am wrong because the projected down move is not the end of the drop. I just do not want to give them a heart attack.

Here is a nice video on a pretty bird nesting. Something feel good is called for as the re-opening of the world is happening.

Patrick Boyle has not disappointed and came up with yet another very good video about the current state of the stock markets. What he said is something I know for a long time from my investing in various companies these years. Majority of them chose not to go public because of funding availability in private sector. When you are a profitable business and have all the funding you need to grow, what’s the point of going for IPO. Watch it if you want to understand the subject better.

To round up my clips, here is Paul Tudor Jones talking about the inflation trade (well, we can’t rule out the fact that he maybe touting his positions). I like to add just one minor but deadly point about this view of Fed failing to contain the inflation or that hyperinflation is coming. All it takes the G7 governments to do is manufacturing another “crisis” like alien invasion or a really deadly pandemic to allow for forever printing of money, at least within their sphere of control. In other words, with a very violent transformation from so-called democracy, which is never really the case anyway, into authoritarian states and viola, you can forget about inflation for good …

This week has been a very productive week that I managed to get many things done in a short period of time. Hope that I can keep this up and ready for the deadline (end of June) I imposed on myself to be ready for the soft launch of my proprietary trading. Exciting time!

Happy Father’s Day!

TLC Weekly Update June 4, 2021

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Non-Farm Payroll report today helps sending the stock market higher so far this morning. Looks like we are back to the bad data is good for the stock market regime. How long would it last though given so much money has been pumped into the system yet we are not seeing what the politicians promised …

I found this pair of videos very amusing. First, an attempt to make an unpickable lock. And then how this lock was picked. The way these two guys interact may lead to some real improvements in making locks, finally.

Lately I find an explosion of horoscope videos on YouTube. Many are jumping onto this new era of superstition to see if they can make a career out of it. Well, being an astrologer is not for everyone. Circular argument, ignorance of obvious common sense and choose to creatively interpret the astrology classics would not turn one into an expert of astrology overnight.

I found this video a great snapshot of at least a part of the crypto crowd’s mentality. The theme is really nothing new. Going all-in for instant gratification and when things not going their way just lie to themselves that they are in this for the long term.

I am not against playing with cryptos. I made very decent profit from it myself and have no complain. What I like to point out is that new technology of every generation always led to extreme speculations and crashes. Right now we are going through the process of elimination of those things that should not exist in the first place. Think for a moment, how many of those 9000+ coins are really worth anything at all?

This process usually takes several years to complete. I will take the sign that when these 9000+ coins are reduced down to like fewer than 300, the crypto space will be ready for its next phase.

I was asked a very interesting question the other day about automated strategy generation. My take is very simple, the current quant approach to strategy development, including AI based and genetic programming, will only yield models that are bounded by their framework. As long as the framework they use stays the same, which is serial data analysis, they will not be able to discover anything useful or consistent over time. I collect these platforms since the 1990s and never stop testing out these stuff. Nothing impress me at all so far …

This month I have to focus on polishing our prop trading models. I work best alone when serious research work is required. It feels great to get things done this way.

Have a good weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update May 28, 2021

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Today is last trading day for the month of May, It is also the lowest volume week so far for the year. I don’t know what the implication is. Maybe just that the weather is getting so nice that people prefer to go outside to get some fresh air instead of staring at their screens all day.

Next Monday is Memorial Day, a US holiday. As a Canadian, I rarely have a break on Canadian holidays if US markets are open. My holiday schedule actually follows the US ones. So next Monday I will be able to carry out some long overdue chores finally.

This is a very good video on Robinhood IPO Access. Mr. Boyle goes in-depth explaining how IPO works and the historical statistics on IPOs. I could not have done it better myself. So if you want to understand IPOs better, or that you want to invest in IPOs, watch the entire video.

Another process disrupted by internet connectivity – startup funding, has led to some interesting change in the makeup of startup investors. I am not sure what will happen to startup funding with a down trend in economy that almost everyone is expecting that to happen “soon”. The enabling of young people to easily invest into startups is a double-edged sword. Young people often lacks the knowledge and life experience to make smart investment decisions. On the other hand, they have time on their side. With just one good bet on a startup, it can be life changing for them in the future.

For this Memorial Day long weekend, enjoy this video of scotch and puzzle. I like watching this youtube channel during my lunch hour because the videos are pretty short and can distract my mind from my work. A form of ASMR maybe?

For those of you who are into astrology, tomorrow is the start of Mercury retrograde until June 22. I assume astrology fans already know about its general implications. But there is one unique feature of the pattern that people rarely talks about. the 10 days around the start of the retrograde is also a time of inspiration for those who conduct research and deep learning. So take your time to reflect and dive deep in coming few days can help you discover new understanding in things you are stuck at.

I just completed a round of hardware upgrade on my servers to make sure they are battle ready for my prop trading launch. Now that the hardware are mostly ready, I will go back to fine tune the software side. So much work, and as usual, so little time.

Have a great long weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update May 21, 2021

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Option expiration Friday today. To the surprise of the new crop of retail traders, the stock market did not go straight up off the open. What they have mistaken as a sign of the stock market bottoming out this week is in reality the normal option expiration dynamics at work. Option market makers can’t just sit there watching their books get toasted by close today, can they?

Hence they do their best to defend the markets from dropping lower on Wednesday to protect the puts they wrote and now on Friday they do their best to put a cap on the rally to protect the calls they wrote. It is really business as usual but the media always put a spin on this.

I was working on upgrading our network infrastructure and somehow when I search for network routing this completely unrelated article came up. It talks about how easy it is to do something extremely malicious to others that police will have a hard time catching the perpetrator. Cyber crime is real and can happen to all of us.

Watched a long discussion between Jordan Peterson and Stephen Fry. Very interesting talk as one of them is a religious person and the other is a declared atheist. It is a great conversation demonstrating how people can conduct meaningful conversation even though the standpoints are not the same.

For those of you interested in financial market outlook, Jeff Gundlach uploaded a video of him presenting his view at a Tony Robbins event. It is a nice summary of his view and what he believes will happen soon. His recommendations for the young guy is priceless.

This weekend will be another brutal week for me to take care of the details before the launch of my proprietary trading venture. It is just over a month away. So much more to get done and I wish I have 40 hours a day.

Have a great weekend all!

For my fellow Canadians, Happy Victoria Day!

TLC Weekly Update May 14, 2021

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The sell in May pattern returned this year after many years of hiatus. But then traders who started trading over the past few years would take this as a something that has no place in this new era of Fed printing until it can’t. So, we got a wonder rally today taking the stock market back up to about half of the drop made earlier in the week. At this point, the stock market is not closed yet so I can’t tell which side has won the week.

Nassim Taleb came out with a new video trashing Bill Gates. Not mentioned in the video is that Gates Foundation has been doing the same in many other places for a long time. So the damage is likely done already. I would go as far as contemplating that all the so-called climate change, virus outbreak, alien invasion are all his faults …

World chess champion Magnus Carlsen did it again – he can simply look at a chess board and recall what game it was, including the players involved and in which event. Normal humans can only analyze a board to try to find out the next best move, let alone remember the exact game right after. There is a reason why he is still the world champion today.

For those of you interested in intermittent fasting (IF), check out this video by Dr. Fung. The more clarity you have, the better you will be able to stick to your plan to utilize IF as a tool to keep yourself health. My warning though is not to jump into the more difficult fast until you are comfortable with handling your hungry first. It takes time to train your body to not signal you to eat even though you do not need food yet.

This week I will need to take care of chores that I have no time to deal with over the past few weeks. Will probably grind through them at a slower pace. So much has been done this month yet I still feel like I am behind schedule.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update May 7, 2021

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Today is Non-Farm Payroll report Friday and I just can’t believe the so-called economists and Wall Street analysts could have estimated that there would be a blockbuster employment figure. Anyone I know who runs a business tells me that the young adults refused to work because of the support payment they are receiving. The shortage of young adult workers will continue until the support payment stops. It is simply human nature …

Interesting read about Tom Anderson, the co-founder of MySpace – the retro look at social media back then and now. Are we entering a new norm in politicking worldwide thanks to the power of the modern social media?

Lately I discovered that Dr. Huberman has started his own podcast at YouTube. It is great news for anyone who is interested to learn more about themselves through the lens of biology and neuroscience. Dr. Huberman has put in much effort to make these podcast understandable by normal people without the scientific training. You don’t need to watch (or listen to) everything he puts out. Pick and choose the topics you want to know more and I am sure it will be time well spent.

Some of you have email me asking why I am super busy all the time. Well, if I am just trading and do nothing else, I will have a lot of free time on hand. However, I am in the process of building my own proprietary trading firm. I am busy raising fund, interviewing coders and research assistants to help me build the company.

My goal is to grow it big like Renaissance Tech one day. Given Dr. Simons started Renaissance when he was 44 years old, and that it took him and his partners 5 years to really figure out their approach, I am in a good position to start my firm since I already have my trading framework all developed over the years. The lockdown here makes it difficult to look for office space and hiring people. Training is especially hard as many things are much easier done face to face but it makes no sense to wait until after lockdown is over.

I will work on my emails over the weekend. If you are waiting for my reply, I think I will manage to catch up with the rest of my inbox finally.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update April 30, 2021

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Another all-time-high week for the stock markets. Now that the major big tech companies all have announced their earnings, we are entering the “Sell in May and Go Away” time window. Be ready for a normal pause in the stock market this coming month. Details of the possible scenarios is already provided to my premium members. We probably need to buckle up for a more volatile market environment over the next few months.

Lately I’ve heard many idiots telling me how bad eating beef is to the environment. This is classic propaganda done by some people with very specific agenda to shape the world. Funny how people can fall for this and spread the lies without understand a word they are told?

Here is a balanced video about the subject.

Many of my friends’ parents are getting to the age with dementia issues. They have been actively looking for drugs to help their parents to slow down the problem. Trying to learn more about this, I came across an interesting read on terminal lucidity. It makes me wonder if I will suffer dementia as I grow older and how to prevent that from happening looks like a high priority for me.

All these governments ordering people to social distance, lockdown and whatsoever they see fit, have failed so miserably because they have absolutely no common sense about human behaviour. As oppose to focus on offering reasonable workarounds (e.g. tell people to start taking Vitamin D / C, injection of Vit. D to patients with symptoms, etc.) and beef up their ICU capacities when they have the luxury over the last nine months, all they are doing is wasting time. Here is a story about New York and the unintended consequence of its government telling its people what’s not allowed.

In peaceful time, when effective governments are not needed, we have the luxury to allow clowns to be elected. We even have a laugh from their dumbness too because whatever they do, it does not really matter. However, in time of crisis, it is these clowns who will destroy people’s lives …

I hope this crisis will soon be over but I suspect that it will not due to extensive vaccination. Here is a video talking about what is now known and what to expect to happen soon. The sad scenario suggested by this doctor implies that we will see massive dying in coming years due to the inability of those who is in charge at understanding nature. I suspect this video will be removed soon so watch it while you can.

Too many complains from me this week. Time to get back to work.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update April 23, 2021

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What a roller coaster ride for the stock markets this week. S&P started the week dropping 2% and then magically rallied all the way back up. Yet, after Biden’s capital gain tax announcement, the whole recovery was wiped out once again. Today, we are witnessing the true animal spirit of the bulls who bravely push the stock market back up all the way again. Just like cats with nine lives, this bull market has proven once again it is not ready to die.

I came across this piece about two entrepreneurs taking on McDonald’s and its ice cream machine supplier. My first reaction after reading the whole article is that monopoly can exist not because of someone has a better technology or secret formula. It can also exist when those people in charge do not have the desire to improve customer experience.

If you are into first person flying experience, you may want to check out this amazing drone. Looking at it, the drone technology has really matured over the past few years. I am itching to get one too.

As someone who eat a lot of eggs and like eating eggs, this video proves what I suspected for a long time that not all eggs are equal. More importantly, the nutrition level in the eggs varies a lot but the so-called organic eggs from large companies are no better than their non-organic ones. If you pay attention enough to eat these eggs as-is, you can figure out which ones are better by their taste and texture.

I scheduled this weekend to clear my backlog of emails. For those of you waiting for my reply over the past few weeks, I will do my best to get back to you.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update April 16, 2021

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This option expiration Friday is something worth taking note of. We have all 3 major stock market indices at all time high while the expected worldwide “recovery” has turned into more lockdowns and vaccination nightmares. Is it optimism or it is pure animal instinct to bet everything on the stock market to make a few more bucks? I don’t know the answer but I am sure that if this is optimism it will have to face reality soon.

I love eggs. I eat eggs everyday. However I hate peeling egg shell. Funny that I read this article on how to boil egg that will make the egg shell easy to peel off. I will give it a try and report back next week.

Weather here in Toronto finally settled down to above zero. Trees are covered with green sprouts everywhere. And the birds came back too. I saw a bird the other day that looks very special so I tried to find the name for the bird online. Instead, I learned something fascinating about the birds and their annual migration.

Lately, I am trying to add the skill of lock picking to a long list of things I like to master. As I watch through youtube videos about the subject, I find this video on Master Lock very funny, in a dark humour way. It is a very short video and if you need a pad lock make sure you watch it so that you will never buy a Master Lock ever.

After past few weeks of intense catch up to complete multiple projects, I have completed a major milestone while setting up for the next leg of building my proprietary trading business. There are things that I have to wait for the results before I can proceed so I am stuck in a way giving me some extra time. I hope to either write or record some videos for my premium members.

Have a great weekend all!