TLC Weekly Update May 10, 2025

A relatively quiet week in the stock market while the world is waiting for “trade deals” is reasonable. As majority of the trading professionals are staying on the sideline, we have a new record of 21 weeks of consecutive weeks of inflow from retail investors into the stock market. If the short break in late December to early January is ignored, we have the longest inflow by the retail investors ever.

Is the worst yet to come, as claimed by some perma bears? Or is that this correction is over with new all-time-high coming soon?

Here is a more balanced view of what to expect down the road.

One thing that matters most for the world, is the news of Warren Buffett retiring after this year. The retirement of iconic figures are always omens to what is coming next to the world. When General Electric CEO Jack Welch retired back in 2001, that marks the end of US manufacturing and a new era of “financialization” of everything. Now that Buffett is retiring this year, I think the end of long term investing by fundamental valuation is here.

I find that the Spain blackout and the announcement of cash withdrawal punishment are potential alarming trends of what’s to come everywhere in the world. The infrastructures around the world have been aging over the years and majority of them are only maintained without modernization. So seeing bridges collapse, power grid blackouts and other man made disasters are likely to be happening way more frequently then the past.

The future of our world will be shaped by the relationship between US and China for sure. However, this relationship is very complicated. Sarah Paine sums it up nicely on what China wants.

BTW, my website is hit by several attacks these few weeks. In case you find that it is not accessible, just wait a little and try it later.

Time to go back to clear my inbox this weekend.

Have a great weekend all!

 

TLC Weekly Update May 3, 2025

A first ever event just happened to the stock market this week, 9 days straight up sending SPX back up to the level before the Trump tariff announcement. So are we on our way to new all time high then?

I don’t know – this bounce was expected but it is not unfolding the way that many FURUs think. We are at a crossroad here – if the tariff mess continue to unfold as expected, meaning that the fight between US and China should last at least 1-2 years, the stock market will not be heading higher. On the other hand, if Trump can take care of the tariff mess in coming 2 weeks, optimism will take over and squeeze the shorts so hard that a new all-time-high is reasonable.

One thing I noticed is that Trump is definitely in fear when the US bond markets are not responding positively to his tariff game. And in multiple occasions he and his team straight out lie to the world that they are in talk with China about the tariff. This is not a good sign because it tells us that he is no different from anyone else in the same position. So called transparency only applies when it is convenient to him.

Here is a bearish view of the situation. Or if you prefer to listen to a person who is wrong on everything all the time, check out this video instead.

In coming months, what matters most is definitely the US bond markets, and this video captured the essence of what US is facing at the moment.

For those of you don’t care about the financial markets much, enjoy this Chris Williamson podcast with Naval Ravikant. I like this one a lot.

Back to work as usual for me.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update April 26, 2025

After serious trouble emerged in the US bond markets, Trump did what all politicians do all the time – lie to the world that there will be a deal, and he will lower tariff against China, etc. The Mag 7 stocks overall gave the impression that things are not going that bad so far. Hence we got a magically lift 4 days in a row in the US stock market.

Is the stock market correction over? Maybe. Is the real crash coming? Maybe.

This is a event driven market environment – so far the way things are unfolding is not stable. The focus on tariff being the reason for the selloff, is a lie. The real reason has always been the infinite printing by Bank of Japan that allowed the Yen Carry Trade to happen for over 15 years is now being cornered again like July 2024. Last time the central banks managed to stop the bleeding by extreme measures. This time, however, it does not look like the central banks can do anything at all.

Here is a better summary of what we are dealing with at this point. Of course, there is always something else to be bullish on.

Instead of listening to the FURUs, why not listening to these two wise men on their takes of the current US-China trade war. Their takes can surprise many China haters.

Another very busy week ahead …

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update April 19, 2025

After a crazy week of of extreme volatility in the stock market, we have a relatively quiet market this week. In addition to that, it is also a shortened trading week thanks to Easter Friday. What makes this week special is that the normal option expiration for the month was supposed to be yesterday, but due to Easter holiday, the expiration is pushed one day earlier on Thursday. That explains a lot why Thursday was relatively quiet and stuck in range.

Next week, it will be a lot more complicated thanks to earning reports from Tesla on Tuesday, Japan tariff negotiators left US without any sign of progress over the weekend, etc.

Bears are all focusing on the potential of a melt down scenario while the bulls believe that the correction can be over anytime soon.

People are all too serious about this tariff fiasco. Check out this lighter take on US tariffs.

And, pay attention to what doomberg said … a very timely piece on the current situation.

In a time of uncertainty, what’s more fitting than another dose of astrology talk of what we are dealing with now. Personally, I find that people who take astrology too seriously lose their ability to take things less seriously. Life is too short to keep thinking that next “important” astro setup in the sky will disrupt the world …

Happy Easter!

TLC Weekly Update April 12, 2025

We just experienced the most volatile week in the entire history of the US stock market. Nasdaq 100 index future actually went limit down at 7% without breaking the previous trading day low for 2 minutes. The exchange authorities, however, chose not to lock up NQ and waited for S&P index future to do the same before activating the market pause protocol. Lucky for those who bet on a bounce from there, ES did not drop to 7% limit down and started to recover fiercely.

What does this imply? No one wants to see lock limit down happening, at least not the exchange officials.

This is a clear warning sign to the bears – you can only win, when those in power let you to.

So what can we expect from here. Well, Trump has another announcement made today exempting all the consumer hi-tech products from the reciprocal tariff. So all the big techs will squeeze much higher by Sunday evening.

There is no need to guess why … you just need to watch this video to understand.

One thing that stands out during last week was the US bonds (and European bonds too) are selling together with the stock markets. Many people learned from media or even classes in finance / economics that shouldn’t happen. Well, it did. And you can learn about the reason why from Jeff.

And those perma bears all jumped out of their closets and screaming that they warned you, blah blah blah.

Well, did they called the top? No.

Do they know why the market is selling off from that top? No.

Stop listening to these idiots can help you staying calm if you have a significant stock portfolio.

Personally, I think people are just influenced badly by the current astro setup in the sky. Don’t worry. Clarity will come soon enough by April 14. Why? This is the date for which majority of those planets that were in retrograde over the past 2 months are now returning to normal motion. Although it is still tough to navigate the current environment economically and financially, going forward we can at least gaining clarity of what will happen next.

Lots of work piled up. Catch up time for me.

Have a great weekend all!

 

TLC Weekly Update April 5, 2025

What a week for the US stock market – no one believes Trump’s tariff plan has such impact on the financial markets until it was announced. The shock sent the stock market lower by around 10% going into Friday. And dumb hedge funds are piling onto shorts at extreme level going into the close.

I said dumb hedge funds because they are dumb – they are over leveraged at 150% long right at the top and now after the stock market dropped like 15% from the top they went all-in going short? That’s a great indicator of a great market bottom is coming very quickly to make sure these funds are toasted again.

For those of you who hold onto old thinking of the financial markets with classic useless shit like Elliott Wave, etc. watch this video by Cem Karsan. The financial markets are changing and how the markets behave on anything beyond one day is no longer the same. Hence all these b.s. warning of another black Monday is coming, whatsoever, is not the reality we are dealing with these days.

This normal correction of the stock market is just business as usual – we always have 8% to 15% market correction almost every year ever since we have that Dow Industrial Average Index. The funny thing though, is that for some reason, similar to the very predictable non-farm payroll bias, that people choose to not remembering these market patterns and instead letting their emotions flying high with every market up and downs …

On the other hand, a lot of people are talking trash about the tariffs imposed by Trump. None of these people are qualified to even talk about tariffs in the first place, and especially those so called economists who have been wrong on everything all the time. What really matters is the net effect of the tariffs in a very connected world – check out this news update and you will see the implications of so called made in America “only” is next to impossible. In other words, we should see major revision to the tariffs as soon as this weekend.

This week we have trading server updates so that will keep me busy all weekend.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update March 30, 2025

I concluded my trip this morning arriving home before dawn. And there is no time to waste as I have to prepare for a very hectic trading week ahead thanks to the freefall on Friday. Now that the sky is falling, what to expect next?
Many people keep calling April 2nd the day of tariff being the next black swan … which I don’t agree. Black swan event is only possible if majority of the people in the game do not see it coming.
If you are still thinking in terms of a narrow view within the tiny world of financial markets, you need to learn more about the real world. Brent Johnson has a good one on the subject that just came out today. Check it out.
I did not know Canada has one of the strongest persons in terms of grip strength until moments ago. I really like the way he trains himself. If you are into grip strength, this video is a must watch.
It is already late evening Sunday. I have to catch up with my work and getting ready for tomorrow.
Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update March 22, 2025

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

US stock market finally found some footing and bounced off the 10% correction level thanks to eager bulls jumping in for bargain hunting. However, the technical players are not convinced and many of them are crying out loud “sky is falling”. Next week is month end and quarter end so indeed strategic positioning by longer term funds will dictate the direction of the market. So the battle is not over …

Here is a balanced view of what to expect next after the correction we just experienced. TLDR – wait and see for now.

When we are facing this kind of cross road, people tend to look for clues from the sky. I found this new video provides a very different take on what the future holds.

In fact, I think humanity is facing a serious crisis – that the gap between the rich and the poor is now so large, is impacting the destiny of everyone who exist now and their descendants. How normal people are forced to face this created two camps of beliefs that are pretty much summarized here.

Life is tough. Yet we go through that whether we like it or not. Maybe finding peace within ourselves is all more important in this era.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update March 15, 2025

 

 

 

 

 

 

What a wild week for the US stock market. Many market participants are so happy that a bounce has finally happened on Friday. Some even say that the selloff is over.

This selloff so far is just 10% correction for SPX but it is a much deeper correction for the Mag 7. In other words, the damage is done and majority of the retail investors who went 100% all-in focusing only on Mag 7 since October last year are now very unhappy. It is not that easy to get a market bottom on weekly basis until something change.

So what to expect next? Steve Miller has a nice analysis of the current market situation. His take is very different from many FURUs who believe a lot more trouble coming quickly. Here is one of those guys explaining his takes.

As usual financial people focus only on the financial aspects affecting them instead of paying attention to what matters most. What matters most going forward has nothing to do with the stock market at all.

With Musk digging through all these records, what comes next is massive prosecutions of billionaires, Democrat politicians, etc. who have been stealing from USA. At the same time, the disclosure of aliens will pick up speed leading to destabilization of many regions of the world that are deeply influenced by religion. To compound the problem even more, we have the yen carry trade unwind risk that can destroy all the financial markets at the same time.

There is really nothing much one can do in a chaotic world like this. Maybe, it is time to learn to find peace within ourselves. Here is another great podcast from Huberman with Dr. Richard Schwartz on his IFS therapy.

This weekend is rollover time so lots of works to get things done.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update March 8, 2025

Another roller coaster ride for the US stock market. The crazy thing that we have yet another 666 low print for SPX tells a lot who is in charge of it. How far it can go higher from here? Is it the bottom that everyone is looking for? As usual, I don’t care.

The developing situation of Trump’s aggressive cleansing of the US government spending has the left going nuts on him and Musk. These people have been on the receiving end of all the “pork fats” of course would do everything they can think of to stop being DOGE-d.

But there is no way for US to keep printing without consequence. Here is a great thread on what is going on and why Trump is doing what he must. There are videos, charts etc. that will take time to read and watch. Enjoy!

After such a selloff on daily, the bears always come out telling the world that sky is falling. Here is a hot take of the situation by Chris Vermeulen. Chris is not a perma bear like many FURUs with a good track record for making good calls over the past 2 years. His opinions can help.

Of course, to balance it out, we need the perma bull Tom Lee talking about his view. Many of you who learned about Tom over the past few years do not really know the full story of him. If you are interested, you can search him up to understand how his view is formed over the years.

To round it out, let’s blame the universe. If his analysis is on point, the crazy chaotic events will continue all the way to mid-April. So buckle up.

Me? Back to work as usual.

Have a great weekend all!