TLC Weekly Update May 11, 2024

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Another week of stock market going higher magically with sentiment going back up to no fear level. Bears are now crushed and everyone is on board the “new all-time-high is coming” train. Would you want to get on board too?

As I explained many years ago, majority of the financial market participants are delusional. Here is a great summary of what is really happening behind the scene.

Due to the real mechanism in global money flow, magically rally in stock markets and crazy flat line on the volatility index are now the norms. The big question is whether this can keep on going, or, similar to what happened back in 2007, a so-called forever rising stock market suddenly breakdown and collapse?

I found this video very disturbing and more people should watch it and be prepared in case of what Dr. Bossche predicted materializes in coming months.

For those of you who love to watch the financial markets, here is the latest take on the macro front.

This is a busy weekend for me. Preparing a replacement laptop for my current one in case of unpredictable issues happening to my trusted laptop.

I am also monitoring the solar storms hitting Earth as I type. I have disconnected all the important devices that can be disconnected already. Let’s hope this extreme event does not badly damage our power grids.

Have a safe weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update April 27, 2024

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Earning week surprises hard swing the indices multiple times all week. What will happen next? The most important event seems to be FOMC announcement coming Wednesday. So we can expect quite Monday and Tuesday then.

By Wednesday, the real fun begins.

I came across this short video that fully illustrate how useless the “nutrition facts” are. So if you are those people who wasted a lot of time reading these panels of b.s. you can stop now.

For a healthier life, it is really not that difficult. However, most people choose to be ignorant and refuse to correct their wrong beliefs leading to continuous bad practices messing up their health and shortening their life span. This video has many good tips on how to improve your health that you can apply onto yourself immediately.

Jeff Snider continues to stay angry on what is happening now to the economy while there is no real solution to the problem. It is nice that someone like Jeff putting out videos explaining what is going on so that more people are aware of the problem. However, politicians and all those people who are in charge of the world do not really care about the well-being of normal people, because if they have the right kind of moral compass, they would have never be a politician in the first place …

Mercury retrograde just ended on Apr 24. So far this year, only one of my uninterruptable power supply “suddenly” having its cooling fan malfunctioning since the beginning of the retrograde. And magically, it stopped giving out loud noise right after.

Back to work as usual.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update April 6, 2024

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A trigger event this week took S&P down about 100 points on Thursday and then on Friday, we got a bounce that recovered most of the losses. Is it the start of the long awaited “pullback” for the stock market? I don’t know. It is fun to watch though as the bull and bear bots duel it out.

An interesting take on China’s economy and potential impact on the rest of the world. Good overview of the whole automobile scene and related industries.

Someone finally produced a video comparing Canada with Australia. It is a great video telling people to think twice before immigrating to these two countries.

This video is not the only one that mentioned a similar theme of this solar eclipse, or the whole eclipse season, will change humanity’s fate. Some new age people even say that those with “higher vibration” (whatever that is) will ascend to another dimension, etc. Given how majority of the people are so ignorant, I always wonder if these believers are lying to themselves and to others with the hope that they will be saved or chosen …

Personally, as someone trained in traditional Chinese astrology stuff, will do one thing for sure during the solar eclipse. That is, I will stay home, not looking up the sky, no matter where I am, because this coming solar eclipse is of the “bad omen” type. According to the ancient teachings, those who look up at the sky during this event will induce extreme bad luck for at least two and a half year. Why? Because the actual solar eclipse will last about 2.5 minute.

There is a huge misunderstanding that the events affecting the world will be happening exactly on the day of the solar eclipse. That can happen but the lasting disruptions / changes to individual lives often happen later when the eclipse angle being visited by the individual’s transiting astro bodies.

As usual, back to work on my projects.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update March 16, 2024

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Quarterly options, index options, index future, index future options all went through expiration Friday and not much happened again. Somehow all attempts to go just a little lower for the broad market always met with one of the big techs going higher like a penny stock to offset all the losses from the other 99% of the stock market. In particular, this Friday we have Nvidia going higher and so the indices just stuck in place and close near their opening prices.

Next week we have line up of many market moving events like WW3, financial system total collapse, etc. but none of that matters until they do. So no point guessing which way it will go … that’s the beauty of day trading – taking it one day at a time.

I came across this video talking about moral code from Immanuel Kant. Pretty good explanation that helps people to at least giving the concept a thought.

I thought about going to Antarctica for a long time. If anything it is definitely on my bucket list. And I found this video talking about a cruise going there in comfort. What a nice surprise.

For those concern much about the financial markets, here is a video of Lyn Alden talking about her take on the current situation. It is an hour long video and many topics are covered. As usual, I do not necessary agree with the opinions in these videos. It is just good practice to observe what influential people think about the markets because they affect the behaviour of many people who follow them.

Here is a great video for those of you young adults or those who have kids. The world is changing and whatever people who are still alive believe in of the social norm or a good path going forward are all wrong. The currently alive 4-5 generations of people have no idea that this 9th phase (20 years starting now) of the 180 years cycle according to Chinese feng shui will do to them all. When I get the chance, I will write something up on the subject.

Back to work as usual.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update January 27, 2024

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Another week the US stock market closing higher and it looks like January will close positively by next week if FOMC does not want to ruin the bull party. But who knows. Given the geopolitical mess we are seeing everywhere … we just don’t know when and where a shock may happen to upset the current bullish outlook.

Here is a video trying to piece together the economy of the Roman Empire. The focus of the video is to compare the Roman Empire’s GDP against the modern era USA. This comparison makes no sense as technologies we have nowadays did not exist say, just 200 years ago or even just 100 years ago.

For those who are concerned about the current economic conditions and what may happen this year, here is Gundlach discussing his take with Charles Payne. His takes on the situation may not agree with what the MSMs are saying.

I find this interview of Patrick Boyle very interesting. He talks about the past how hedge funds are so different from the modern day version of them. He also touches on quite a number of interesting subjects. Hope you enjoy this.

As someone who eats eggs almost everyday, here is a video talking about eggs that tried to settle the arguments around the quality and taste of eggs across all kinds of eggs. I do not agree with the conclusion of the video because I know a lot about eggs and the studies he quoted are not done properly. Why? Industrialized high-end eggs offered by big companies are just another elaborate scheme to make more money from the “organic” movement.

Back to work now.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update August 26, 2023

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What a week for the stock market – NVidia blowoff earning midweek and Powell hawkish statement on Friday gave the world completely opposite outcomes based on normal expectations. Nvidia earning sent its stock price up 11% on Wednesday night but then on Thursday all that gain were wiped out during normal market hours. Powell hawkish statement initially was thought to have pressured stock market lower on Friday but then the stock market went higher in the afternoon. Media and gurus keep trying to give an after the fact explanation of what happened. But does that matter?

Here is a video discussing Burry’s bearish bet in better context. For those of you who want to ride his coattail, watch it to gain a better understanding of the macro situation. But keep in mind that the real reason why Burry made the bet can be something else completely. And also remember that the reporting of one’s positions for each quarter has a 45 days time window. So between end of June and now, Burry’s position may have changed already.

I find this video has a more balanced view of the macro factors that will shape the near future of world economy. If you don’t want to watch this hour long video, I can summarize it here – we are f$#ked.

Back to work for me. No point overthinking much on what to do when the financial system collapse or reset.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update August 19, 2023

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Option expiration week ended with SPX closing at the lowest level over the past few weeks. It is not something unexpected because of the largest technology companies had a huge rally earlier this year. Even if they are not crashing down, taking a breather for a few weeks is reasonable.

The biggest news in the financial world this week must be Michael Burry’s 13F filing. It is reported that he has positioned himself on a bearish outlook for the SPX and NDX indices using put options on SPY and QQQ. It is the largest position he has put on over the past few years. First, we do not know the expiration dates of these options. Second, we do not know the strike prices of these options. Most important of all, we do not really know if it is just a short term trade for a normal market correction which many pros expected, or a conviction trade that Burry thinks that something way worse is coming.

So no point to speculate why he is doing that. And more importantly, you can’t mimic what he does without more details. I am positioned since July on a major pullback for the big techs. I even posted charts on Twitter with the reasons and the expected downside targets. It is not that hard to figure this out.

An interesting discussion of our ever increasing demand of electricity by Patrick Boyle. His takes on EV and electrify everything are very reasonable and the expected eventual taxing on everything electric will come sooner than later. Here is my warning to anyone who think EV is the future, think of the flooding in China – the moment the power grid is down, all things electric are f$#ked.

Just search online for portable solar electric car charger and you will see all kinds of “promises” that in the future, it will become possible, but not now. I think the better answer is never. Many months ago I discussed this topic in detail from the astrology view point. In short, better expect a completely new energy source being developed than to believe whatever we have now will solve this forever increase in demand of electricity problem.

The doomers are thinking the sky is falling – an honest discussion of what to expect in the near future on the economic front.

And of course, there is David Hunter, who tells everyone that the melt up has not happened yet, and that sky is the limit for gold.

In a way, I agree with him, as long as the “one-two punch” I always refer to has not happened, the only solution for the governments and central banks worldwide is to keep printing. So hyperinflation will persist and of course, all risk assets will go through the roof.

Another busy weekend for me – can’t even take a break in the cottage country here the whole summer so far … I miss my cottage.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update July 8, 2023

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Another Non-Farm Payroll report is out and not much reaction to that comparing to the last few ones. This stock market is waiting for the next event to drive it higher or lower. Without one, it does not know what to do.

Gareth Soloway on David Lin’s show talking about bitcoin and stock market in general. One thing I find very interesting is that a whole new generation of traders are created from the covid lockdown and they are not going away. From my observation of many comments on various trading communities, they have very strong opinions on everything as if they are experts …

A short video from a Christian talking about Bill Gates and his evil deeds. If you are easy offended by those who believe in God, don’t watch it.

One of the biggest news this week obviously is Yellen visiting China. Before the trip, majority of those who pay attention to these things said that it is a waste of time. And in fact, it is. MSM we are allowed to watch here all showing the same script to describe what happened.

It is the same old bullshit we are seeing these days with the Western politicians. If you want to understand China better, here is a video of Keyu Jin on China. As usual, I don’t agree with everything she’s saying but it is a good start to understand the situation better.

I like this comment a lot from Douglas Murray on who’s going to and continue to spread and defend fucked up beliefs. The world of normal people with common sense need to fight back and stop this from ruining our societies.

Time for me to work on my projects.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update July 1, 2023

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Second quarter of 2023 ended with a bang printing another new year high for S&P500. How high can it go is the buzz all over this weekend.

Macro guys like Alf are bearish for a good reason. However, without better timing, many macro players are deep in red and can only hope the recession will eventually arrive.

Some others, like Prof. Hanke, raised an interesting point about the population issue.

As usual I don’t agree with many of these videos I link to but then being able to see what others are thinking can help me discover any blind spot that I have not thought about.

One of the biggest news in financial world this week was the flood of applications to create bitcoin ETFs by several big names. Well, all of them are rejected for now. But it does not mean that these firms will not try again after they improve their applications. This development will significantly impact the crypto space so if you trade or invest in cryptos, remember to stay on top of this.

Eurodollar university has a new video up on China’s yuan. It matters because China is the second biggest economy in the world. Any shock in Yuan’s value relative to other major currencies can create a ripple effect shocking all the major financial markets. This problem is still unfolding and can be a catalyst in forcing the US stock markets to correct suddenly.

This is first of the month. So it is chores time in addition to my normal workload. Back to work for me.

Happy Canada Day to my fellow Canadians!

TLC Weekly Update May 13, 2023

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Another interesting week has passed with the US stock market continues to be trapped inside a tight range. Bulls believe we are going to see a new high soon because of whatever reason they can come up with. Bears insist that so far this is a dead cat bounce and reality will hammer the market back down. Maybe, it is something else all together – like we have reached an equilibrium for which the next major move has nothing to do with the current state of the market at all but some external events that will decide the outcome.

Of course people don’t like to see things this way because everyone wants their own predictions come true. Both sides have a chance to win. What matters most is that when they are wrong, can they survive for the next play?

A very interesting topic to me, “Is reality discrete or continuous?”, discussed by none other than Stephen Wolfram.

Here it is with Hugh Hendry again. This time he has a conversation with Russell Clark who has an opposite view of TLT from Hendry.

We don’t get a lot on YouTube with Doomberg as they are mainly active on Twitter only. Here is a great overview of what Doomberg thinks about various markets and the future.

Got to go.

Enjoy your weekend all!