TLC Weekly Update January 28, 2022

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All the major big techs have already reported their earnings. However, it seems like people couldn’t decide if interest rate hikes will destroy the future growth or not. Crazy wild swings every hour at 1 to 2% everyday all week while the normal average range for a whole trading day being 1% to 1.5%, you know people are very emotional and not likely to be thinking clearly.

For those of you who is open minded to listen to a more reasonable narrative about the current market situation, check out this video with Jeremy Grantham. Grantham is famous for his calls of the major bubbles in history with his distinctive career in the financial industry for more than 50 years. Many retail investors who has no patience nor the aptitude to understand Grantham’s philosophy in investing will probably hate his approach because he does not provide precise timing which is a dumb idea in the first place for any longer term investments.

But for those of you willing to listen and reflect deeply, you will gain a lot of insights into the current market environment.

The biggest news in Canada at the moment is the Canadian Truckers rally against the Trudeau government’s tyranny of vaccine mandate. Personally, I can tell that Trudeau, a perfect example of a man child who knows nothing but scamming and lying to the public, should resign now. The future world will be very unforgiving to these politicians who messed up the world for two whole years.

Good news though in other countries that more are dropping all restrictions related to covid. My conjecture that this scam will be over pretty soon looks good.

Another great video coming from Patrick Boyle explaining the current situation in China. He makes several good points about what to expect economically in the near future for China. For those of you thinking that investing in China as a diversification from the US markets, you should definitely watch this before making a rushed decision.

Snow storm is expected this weekend and extreme cold warning is issued here in Toronto. So I am stuck at home again. What’s better than focus on work?

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update October 8, 2021

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Another Non-Farm Payroll week gave the world a head scratching rally while the media bullshit with all sorts of explanations. This is how funny the world has become – fewer and fewer people have a brain on their head thanks to continuous feeding of sensational news and information. Is there a thing called detox your thought process?

An interesting talk about the supplement N-acetyl-cysteine (NAC). It is something useful to keep ourselves healthy in this era of everything shortages. One thing I don’t understand why US chooses to ban the supplement. Well, I guess I know why but I can’t sa it out loud …

One of the biggest news this week is the release of the Pandora papers. Very interesting peek into the world of hidden wealth.

Found this old video from Ben Greenfield that allows you to exercise your whole body in one move. Nice exercise to start your day!

This week we have twice experienced data outage in the middle of the trading sessions. Just this morning our eSignal feed got a crazy level delay of 20 seconds before it catches up again. Not that I like to promote superstition but seriously, Mercury retrograde ends on 18th. So 2 more weeks of technical problems like this will get me on the edge!

I’ve got lots of paperwork to catch up with this week. Someone asked when will I write another post for the trading automation series. I will try to fit that into the schedule this week. Don’t hold me on that though.

Have a nice weekend all!

For my fellow Canadian, Happy Thanksgiving and have a wonderful long weekend!

TLC Weekly Update October 1, 2021

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What a quarterly end we got this Thursday! The congress tug-of-war sideshow is really getting old – deal or no deal based on lies and deceptions. It is still a budget to spend the future money they will never have. Bots acting on the no deal b.s. hammered the stock markets lower before open and then the stock markets magically rally all the way back up thanks to Powell and gang’s hardworking team.

Can’t help with the sarcasm. Maybe I have been trading for way too long.

Here is an interesting comment made by South China Morning Post’s editor. Maybe, just maybe, that the younger generations no longer care about the “real world” out there anymore?

Nassim Taleb taking a jab at a psychology research paper referred to by Adam Grant. It is a good lesson to learn from because Nassim pointed out an important point in statistics that is often ignored by people applying statistical analysis. Again, the lack of understanding the probability world led to conclusions that are obviously wrong.

An interview of Jordan Peterson on current matters. It is an hour long discussion so plan ahead if you intend to watch it. His take on the current situations around the world really worries me much. How low will the Western politicians sink before we see common sense and responsibilities return?

Mercury retrograde started this week and has already claimed casualties against our computer network. One of the major components of our servers is the tunneling through PureVPN. Our dedicated IP server suddenly went offline during market hours. Took us a while to figure out what happened. And then reporting the problem to PureVPN led to more frustration because they said it would take 12 hours to get the server up and running. This has never happened before …

If you are a long time reader you may recall that the start and end of Mercury retrograde can be a great time for research breakthrough. Since I am well prepared to utilize this opportunity, I managed to solve the final piece of the puzzle to my price discovery theory. We are talking about decades long journey that comes to an end. Since I feel so great that I will celebrate this with a short break over the weekend.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update August 20, 2021

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Another week of market weaknesses saved by magic rally on Friday. Many are wondering who are buying these dips. Well, there are two main groups of people who can’t wait. First, it is the retail traders and investors who are piling everything they have into this easy money game. Second, it is the hedge funds and traders who have to answer to their investors and bosses. Lack of a reason that can put fear into the longer term investors, a technical correction may only induce a 10 to 20 percent damage to the US stock market.

I watched this video on politicians using their positions to make money in the financial markets. It is a good introduction to the subject. What’s missing is the reporting of the net worth of all these politicians before they became elected and where they stand now comparing to someone who worked in the private sector with comparable salary and compensation. If you are interested, look it up yourself. You will be astounded.

Thorium Molten Salt Reactor is a much safer form of nuclear power plant. It is safe than any Tesla moving around the world, as a comparison. However, countries like Japan and United States chose to build the much more dangerous versions for the sake of military potential. Thus, I am very surprised that China would go for this safe route.

Mr. El-Erian, former CEO of PIMCO, commented about the current global economic environment. His take on interest rate carries weight. Indeed, big guns in the markets would not worry until Powell makes up his God damn mind.

Lately I see a trend emerging from the governments worldwide pitting their own citizens against each other by blaming their failures in handling the covid crisis on those who are not vaccinated. This type of strategies I thought was only employed by the dictators and crazy regimes. Of course, many people who does not know better often fall into this kind of traps. Remember, it is the governments worldwide that failed to focus on finding an existing drugs to repurpose for frontline treatment that leads to the mess now. Leaky vaccines are not the answer as admitted now by those who pushed the agenda for so long.

It is now proven, that there are at least 30 existing drugs, both safe and cheap, are useful for the fight against covid. If the governments did not waste time and put resources into this area, we would have identified them in the first 3 months of the pandemic. Even now, these governments still block the use of these drugs because they can’t admit to being wrong, or that they are in bed with the vaccine makers, I really don’t know. The information is out there, all you need to do is look. And by the way, do not use those so-called fact checking sites. They are owned by the big pharma too. I am not joking.

This weekend I will be doing chores again, to take a break from the regular research and development work. It is hard to stay productive and creative when one is looking at the same thing everyday. Maybe enjoy some sunshine while summer is here in Canada is exactly what I need.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update July 30, 2021

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Can’t believe it is already the end of July. Time flies when you just work until you are so tired and crash in bed day after day.

An interesting video explaining why first class is disappearing. Airline business is indeed a tough one. I wonder how long it will take for the industry to recover from covid.

A friend sent me this video about people dumb enough to go online shopping for hitman. Are people really losing their common sense these days?

After watching this video, I want to get one of these beautiful chess sets too. Maybe I will buy myself that this Christmas …

Some of you asked why I have time to watch all these videos and read all kinds of articles while complaining about not enough time to work on my projects. Well it is quite simple to answer – I accomplish all that during my lunch and dinner. And I only eat two times a day.

This will be a Canadian long weekend. My schedule wouldn’t change though – research and development is a forever grind that takes someone who enjoy the process.

Have a nice weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update June 18, 2021

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Quarterly option expiration Friday today and as expected with the stock market indices pinned lower. Nothing special yet the media continues to make up reasons for something that happens regularly. Is it that hard to figure out the third Friday of a quarter end? I am not trying to be mean here … could it be the case that many financial news reporters are having dyscalculia.

Those crypto fans with many followers have been very bullish about bitcoin for like a week now. They even come up with all kinds of charts with squiggly lines to show that Bitcoin has already “bottomed” and that it will go to $100,000 “very soon”. Well, I stand by my prediction made back in April through Twitter and here is the latest update of the chart that I added a few lines (once in mid-May and then Jun 1) to show how easy it is to read a chart like bitcoin due to its participants are mostly emotional beings.

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How do I know Bitcoin will go sideway for a month? It is simply basic chart reading. I even wrote a book on chart reading years ago showing how to do it. And here is rule #1 : read the chart from left to right only. Why? So that you cannot add opinions of your own after the fact.

Of course I can be wrong since charts only tell at most 60% of the story. For the well being of the crypto HODL crowd, I wish them luck and that I am wrong because the projected down move is not the end of the drop. I just do not want to give them a heart attack.

Here is a nice video on a pretty bird nesting. Something feel good is called for as the re-opening of the world is happening.

Patrick Boyle has not disappointed and came up with yet another very good video about the current state of the stock markets. What he said is something I know for a long time from my investing in various companies these years. Majority of them chose not to go public because of funding availability in private sector. When you are a profitable business and have all the funding you need to grow, what’s the point of going for IPO. Watch it if you want to understand the subject better.

To round up my clips, here is Paul Tudor Jones talking about the inflation trade (well, we can’t rule out the fact that he maybe touting his positions). I like to add just one minor but deadly point about this view of Fed failing to contain the inflation or that hyperinflation is coming. All it takes the G7 governments to do is manufacturing another “crisis” like alien invasion or a really deadly pandemic to allow for forever printing of money, at least within their sphere of control. In other words, with a very violent transformation from so-called democracy, which is never really the case anyway, into authoritarian states and viola, you can forget about inflation for good …

This week has been a very productive week that I managed to get many things done in a short period of time. Hope that I can keep this up and ready for the deadline (end of June) I imposed on myself to be ready for the soft launch of my proprietary trading. Exciting time!

Happy Father’s Day!

TLC Weekly Update May 21, 2021

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Option expiration Friday today. To the surprise of the new crop of retail traders, the stock market did not go straight up off the open. What they have mistaken as a sign of the stock market bottoming out this week is in reality the normal option expiration dynamics at work. Option market makers can’t just sit there watching their books get toasted by close today, can they?

Hence they do their best to defend the markets from dropping lower on Wednesday to protect the puts they wrote and now on Friday they do their best to put a cap on the rally to protect the calls they wrote. It is really business as usual but the media always put a spin on this.

I was working on upgrading our network infrastructure and somehow when I search for network routing this completely unrelated article came up. It talks about how easy it is to do something extremely malicious to others that police will have a hard time catching the perpetrator. Cyber crime is real and can happen to all of us.

Watched a long discussion between Jordan Peterson and Stephen Fry. Very interesting talk as one of them is a religious person and the other is a declared atheist. It is a great conversation demonstrating how people can conduct meaningful conversation even though the standpoints are not the same.

For those of you interested in financial market outlook, Jeff Gundlach uploaded a video of him presenting his view at a Tony Robbins event. It is a nice summary of his view and what he believes will happen soon. His recommendations for the young guy is priceless.

This weekend will be another brutal week for me to take care of the details before the launch of my proprietary trading venture. It is just over a month away. So much more to get done and I wish I have 40 hours a day.

Have a great weekend all!

For my fellow Canadians, Happy Victoria Day!

TLC Weekly Update May 7, 2021

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Today is Non-Farm Payroll report Friday and I just can’t believe the so-called economists and Wall Street analysts could have estimated that there would be a blockbuster employment figure. Anyone I know who runs a business tells me that the young adults refused to work because of the support payment they are receiving. The shortage of young adult workers will continue until the support payment stops. It is simply human nature …

Interesting read about Tom Anderson, the co-founder of MySpace – the retro look at social media back then and now. Are we entering a new norm in politicking worldwide thanks to the power of the modern social media?

Lately I discovered that Dr. Huberman has started his own podcast at YouTube. It is great news for anyone who is interested to learn more about themselves through the lens of biology and neuroscience. Dr. Huberman has put in much effort to make these podcast understandable by normal people without the scientific training. You don’t need to watch (or listen to) everything he puts out. Pick and choose the topics you want to know more and I am sure it will be time well spent.

Some of you have email me asking why I am super busy all the time. Well, if I am just trading and do nothing else, I will have a lot of free time on hand. However, I am in the process of building my own proprietary trading firm. I am busy raising fund, interviewing coders and research assistants to help me build the company.

My goal is to grow it big like Renaissance Tech one day. Given Dr. Simons started Renaissance when he was 44 years old, and that it took him and his partners 5 years to really figure out their approach, I am in a good position to start my firm since I already have my trading framework all developed over the years. The lockdown here makes it difficult to look for office space and hiring people. Training is especially hard as many things are much easier done face to face but it makes no sense to wait until after lockdown is over.

I will work on my emails over the weekend. If you are waiting for my reply, I think I will manage to catch up with the rest of my inbox finally.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update April 9, 2021

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Another week of record new all time high for S&P500 but not quite with Dow and Nasdaq 100. This is definitely an environment that we rarely seen in the past. As far as I remember from my long trading career, this is the second time we see this all-time-high phenomenon. Last time it was the end of year 1999 to the beginning of year 2000.

I warned in my newsletter for my premium members that this year we are going to see problems with essentials. Here is a video from a youtuber contractor telling us how bad things have been with the renovation / construction materials. Things will go way worse before it gets better.

Unlike a growth driven inflation, what we are experiencing is a supply side limitation-driven price hiking. There is no limit to how far such price rising wave will go. It all depends on how desperate the buyers are. If this continues for a long time, it will damage the internals of a economy beyond repair.

I just watched another video from DoubleLine talking to Louis Gave of Gavekal Research. Mr. Gave has unique insights about the long term economic changes that will affect everyone who have an investment portfolio.

A very interesting video about Ireland’s Vitamin D report. For those of you who are told by MDs that you do not need Vitamin D supplement, it is important for you to watch it.

Since it is the beginning of a quarter, I have a lot of paperwork to catch up on. This is also the tax filing season for Canadians. Getting all these accounting work done and then I will be able to relax, say, for an afternoon, before getting back to work on other pressing tasks.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update March 26, 2021

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Another week of roller coaster ride with Dow shot back up near all time high while Nasdaq 100 resumed its sell off. S&P got caught in between and could not decide which one to follow. This makes life difficult for many pro traders I know.

For those of you wondering where the market is heading, Michael Burry of “The Big Short” fame has made a series of tweets and then stopped talking about the markets all together. Business Insider made a summary of what he said, enjoy!

His point of view on Bitcoin and Tesla are very interesting. I do not know enough about crypto to say that they are “fads”. However, I am very sure every car company will catch up with Tesla eventually. And I agree with Mr. Burry on EVs being a fad because EVs are not good for driving under many conditions from extreme coldness and a post apocalyptical world with no electricity.

I have a friend being diagnosed with excessive iron in her blood. Well, most people do not know that cast iron pans can overload people with iron even if you are on a diet with insufficient iron. Read this article to understand why.

Last weekend I spent it all on hardware upgrade. This weekend I will be on turbo mode to complete some coding. Just don’t understand why something always pop up that require emergency attention. Must be some damn astrology setup on my chart … LOL

Jeff Gundlach, the “bond king”, has a new webcast made for his clients and released to youtube about a week later. It is packed with proprietary data models and analysis. If you are interested in understanding the current economy, this video is a must-watch.

Here in Toronto the weather finally goes back up to above zero and the huge piles of ice on the streets are melt away over the last few days. It is very nice to be able to walk outside without putting on layers of clothes. Being able to stroll around while tackling difficult programming problems helps a lot.

Have a great weekend all!