TLC Weekly Update November 26, 2022

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US Thanksgiving week ended with the US stock markets edged higher a little, just like most of the past Thanksgiving weeks. What is interesting is that next week we will get early reporting on retail sales figures over the Black Friday weekend which can set the tone for the stock market or create a rush higher that turns out to be an important swing top. Powell will speak next week so volatility will return. I think this December will be a very interesting one for the financial markets.

As someone who has been telling the climate change crowds that they are being used by politicians and large companies, it is interesting to see this video available on YouTube. I wonder if it will be taken down soon …

I told my team working on our trading algos that I will update our core engine with C++ myself so that the performance can be many times better. Most people do not understand how important it is when one is doing intensive computations to research on any subject, the performance of the algos will directly affect the productivity. Here is a video talking about a friendly competition among coders and the difference in performance they can made. I tried to hire C++ programmers with experience working with several common trading platforms for like months now and every single one of them turns out to be not qualified.

Some idiots with fancy degrees even claim that what I am trying to do will not have much performance gain. Seriously? I wonder if they cheated to get their degrees in the first place …

Since we are so close to the end of year 2022, inevitably people ask what’s my outlook for year 2023. The outlook is that chaos is coming whether you are prepared for that or not. A new multi-polar world is very different from the single polar one we lived in over the past two decades. This video provides a good overview of the problems surfacing right now.

A nice change of pace as we enter the year-end holiday season. We all know it has already started because the radio stations here are playing Christmas songs 24 hours a day. Time to do all kinds of chores to wrap up this hectic year and prepare for the next.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update November 19, 2022

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This option expiration Friday we got this whiplash move within 10 minutes from close on all the major indices. I’ve read that another $2.1 trillion dollar worth of options to be settled on Friday. What a way to end the week.

I did not forget to write my weekly blog last week. I couldn’t because of some freak accident and most of the week I could only work a few hours a day. I am much better now but it will take some time before I fully recover.

Here is a clip of Andrew Huberman talking about testosterone. If you think you are low on testosterone, you may want to try out some of the suggested supplements in the video.

For those of you interested in crypto, you all are aware of the FTX scandal. Patrick Boyle made a great video summarizing the situation. It is a bit longer than the other videos Patrick made because the story of FTX is indeed very complex.

Lately I have seen a disturbing trend of big firms coming out to say people can buy into this bear market rally because it may have legs. And there are all these active traders who claim that the bear market is over already. Whenever the big firms telling us something, their motive is to drum up business and it is never about having the correct call of the future. At the same time, there are reports that dark pools are seeing size players unloading their stocks at record speed these past two months when the stock market has been rising.

I refer you to this video on Michael Burry’s latest tweet. What I think Burry believes is that we will see the stock market go lower a lot more from the current level. Many people do not believe that’s the case. Many even calls Burry a broken clock because they think he always call for market crash. This particular belief about Burry is wrong. From his track record, Burry’s calls are often early, by 6 months to a year. The reason why he is always early is that when all the factors are in place leading to some disruptive changes down the road, you still need a catalyst to end the current trend.

For example, even though the current stock market environment is ready for a dive, without some external forces the stock market can stay range bounded for a long time. It does not need to go higher or lower by much. In fact, throughout history of the US stock market, there are many years in the past where the indices went nowhere.

After typing this up, I am already drained. Will go back to rest.

Have a great weekend all!

And an early Happy Thanksgiving to my US readers!

TLC Weekly Update November 5, 2022

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What a Non-Farm Payroll Week we experienced. Chairman Powell, once again, has made it clear that the Fed will fight inflation and keep rate at higher level until inflation comes back down to their target. Yet, all we hear from MSM and those talking heads is that Fed will “pivot” soon. Such misleading bullshit shapes the minds of majority of the retail investors to keep on piling into the stock market. Insanity indeed.

It is so simple and clear where the overall stock market is heading. But those who grew up in this zero interest rate environment would not understand, or choose to not understand, why everything is so expensive suddenly. It is not going to end well for many people if they continue to live in their own bubble …

Some people asked how come we are getting high inflation suddenly? It is not a sudden event. Watch this video with Milton Friedman explaining where these inflations come from. He made that speech back in 1978. And it tells you everything you need to know and why it will end badly.

Lately, I was re-introduced to this old game by a friend. It is called the Universal Paperclips. Wikipedia has a page about it with link to the game site. If you like playing this type of games, it can easily kill half a day off for you.

Here is a recording of Zoltan Pozsar debating his long time collaborator Perry Mehrling on Pozsar’s idea of the upcoming Bretton Woods 3.0

Notice that MSM are avoiding Pozsar on their shows lately not because what he suggested is too bizarre. In fact, what he suggested is happening now and is predicting a very bad outcome for the United States. That’s why he is being silenced.

I have some heavy moving tasks to take care of this weekend, again. Hopefully this is the last ones for the year. I need a break to to let my back heal.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update October 29, 2022

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Another week of crazy swings in the stock markets worldwide. As of today, the only things I read and watch everywhere is that the stock market can go higher from here. Notice that so far, there is no panic selling from the retail side yet. We are talking about ten months of stock market decline that there is no net outflow from the stock market. Given this is a game of majority lose it all, I will not be surprised that the bulls’ resolve will be tested soon.

A great recap of what happened this week in the financial world. The video is long and the outlook is dark. But then we already know what it is.

For a funnier take of the current situation, no one tops Hugh Hendry. Enjoy!

Some friends asked if it is a good time to buy a house now since the price has dropped quite a lot in some part of the country. Here is an interesting take on the current situation in the real estate market. If what the guest of the show said materialize in coming months, it will take a long time for any major cities in North America to see the bleeding stop in their real estate markets.

To give an example about the real estate markets here in outer area near Toronto here. I have seen houses that were sold at like $1.8 to $2 mil Canadian dollars back in February / March at the peak, have their neighbours selling at $1.6 mil and below lately. Same size, same area, just lower prices. The interesting part of this dynamics is the bullwhip effect where those buyers who bought at the top are trying to rent their properties out at a price level that makes no sense.

In short, these buyers have no idea that you can’t price a rental property based on what you want to make from the property. Renters cannot and will not need to pay up unless they think your property is a good deal. Only those reasonable landlords who understand the responsibility of a landlord know how to attract good tenants.

For those landlords who have not read the laws on how to be a landlord here in Canada, here is a friendly reminder – you better catch up now or you will be punished by law very soon when the tenants are getting frustrated in coming years.

I have a very bad cough for almost two weeks now. Can’t sleep well when one has to cough every few minutes. That affect my work progress a lot.

Don’t like it but I rarely get sick … may as well enjoy the feeling of being unhealthy until I recover.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update October 22, 2022

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Another option expiration Friday was over. How dramatic it was has proven the US stock market is very messed up. A recycled old story from a ethically questionable newspaper on what Fed is going to do, together with a completely timed statement made by a Fed governor right around market open, tells you that the Fed is extremely scared of a market crash …

So they only want orderly selloff down to whatever level they like, yet a crash is not allowed. Interesting magical thinking from an institution that does not know what it is doing.

For those of you who do not understand why Switzerland’s use of the swap line with Fed is a big deal, watch this video. The financial system has already broken given what happened to Switzerland must be extremely damaging. It tells us that it is just a countdown to even more troubles ahead.

Here is a great video giving you an overview of three large macro hedge funds’ takes on the current investment environment.

An interesting take on gold stocks and the big names in the stock market. The discussion on the lack of real exploration for precious metal is indeed a big issue.

Am extremely busy getting all kinds of things done this week.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update October 15, 2022

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The S&P500 index closed at its lowest level for the year even after European Central Bank came out with their lies about much lower anticipated interest rate going forward on Thursday. Some people may call me spreading misinformation about ECB. But I stand by my words – the timing of the announcement is exactly the same way as what they did in the past financial crisis situations. I have seen enough after decades of dealing with their b.s.

Next week is option expiration week for the month on many stocks related markets. So another roller coaster ride is likely. And now we have seen many companies are guiding lower their future earning estimates. The sell pressure will continue to build up.

A very important video for everyone to learn from. I always talk about how dumb these pension funds are. Once you understand more about this drama in UK, you will wonder how long it is going to take for pension funds in other countries to blow up …

A funny video from The Babylon Bee. Since I do have mustache, maybe I need to shave that asap to avoid being picked on.

As expected, even though truth finally coming out slowly about Pfizer and its product, why are we not seeing any criminal investigations against the company, and more importantly, no arresting of those politicians who cooperated with them yet?

I am very busy working on my various projects as usual. If you have sent me email this week and I haven’t replied yet, don’t worry. I will work on my replies later on today.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update October 8, 2022

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Another Non-Farm Payroll week ended with total chaos by Friday close. Yet, the NFP weekly bias still worked out perfectly. Isn’t that amazing?

There are lots of talks about “Fed pivot”. I posted on twitter reminding everyone that whatever the Fed is going to do with interest rate at this point no longer matters. It is WW3 that we should care about. There is nothing left to gamble when you are already dead.

The US stock market so far shows the most committed retail all-in spirit. Overall, the inflow into the stock market has not stopped. Every one talks about dollar cost averaging suddenly as if they are all experts on investing. I am so used to deliver bad news to others why not throw in one more – dollar cost averaging does not work in rising interest rate environment. After the stock market drops to almost nothing and then spending the next 15-30 years down at the bottom, you lose.

On a lighter note, here is a video talking about Charles Darwin’s take on marriage.

For those of you want to hear more bad news about the markets and economy, you can check out this video with Mark Yusko.

On the brink of the global financial system going into full crisis mode, we have UN suggested that countries can stop that by putting price control on essentials …

I am speechless. I have no doubt that Trudeau and Biden will go for that soon though.

Today is my home improvement day. Will work on that all day.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update October 1, 2022

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Finally, after a whole week of struggle near the year low made back in June, it was taken out the last minute going into close on Friday. Majority of the trading world was calling for a bounce due to oversold. Seriously, do they know that month end have strong bias for going lower? One has to wonder how little these people know.

Instead of just summarizing what happened last week, for those of you who are into investing and trading, here is a hint of what is coming this week – Non-Farm Payroll. You can make a lot of money from this.

I have been telling people around me to stay healthy as we age because our bodies do not function the same way as we get older. This video is a good summary of what to do to stay healthy as we age.

A good history lesson about WW2 German Nazis from Thoughty2. We are so close to WW3 at this point in time … maybe everyone should pay attention to what happened back then so that we do not made the same mistaken in supporting crazy dictators. Ooops, Biden was elected, Trudeau was elected. I guess we are doomed after all.

There is a big scandal in the chess world and an interesting take on the issue by Hikaru. It is a long video and only interesting if you like playing chess.

The back breaking storage move was a great success and now I get to go over these old stuff from eons ago. It is a long term plan though so I am not in a rush to finish the job quickly. It is quite scary though that one can accumulate so much paperwork, records and stuff that I haven’t seen in 10 years. Amazing.

Got to catch up with my work this weekend as usual.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update September 26, 2022

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This past weekend I took the plunge to move all the stuff I stored in my commercial storage back to my house. It took three movers, a 30-feet truck and 4 hours to move all the items. After that I spent many hours of back breaking labour to tidy up my place so that I can still walk around. This is just the start of the process – it will take me months going forward to sort out what to throw away and what to keep.

Funny thing though, is that I look up my email records on the first time I rented a storage space. And it is almost exactly ten years ago. No one can escape from our 10 year cycle including me.

Another fun video with Hugh Hendry. He bluntly pointed out the obvious that the Fed does not know what it is doing. Yet it has to.

Many people do not understand the scale of the financial troubles the world is in. Here is a video discussing how bad money are racing to the bottom.

Another good clip from Dr. Huberman on why reading more can help one to improve their ability to speak.

I warned that things will not go well for the world in the first survival article. I didn’t make good on my promise to write more on the subject. I will squeeze some time out to write more about it as I can see many people are not aware of the situation we are facing.

Have a great day all!

TLC Weekly Update September 17, 2022

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Quarterly option expiration Friday produced no fireworks all day and settled pretty much within the day’s range. Some people suggested that we would see a major rally from open while others speculated that we would get a panic crash day. Sometimes too much conviction in a narrative would blind you from seeing the reality …

Talks by Robert Greene always catch my attention. This one is no exception.

CNBC gives a basic overview of BRICS. Not the best analysis due to bias in their understanding of non-Western cultures … it is still good for anyone who has no idea what it is.

On the brighter side, check out this video from Joe Rogan’s podcast on aliens.

Martin Armstrong did a good piece on Putin. If more people really spend more time on history, I think our world will be a much better place.

Rest of my weekend will be tons of paperwork processing.

Enjoy the rest of your weekend everyone!