TLC Weekly Update October 22, 2021

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What a week for the stock market to challenge its all-time-high right by the end of the week and only to be disrupted by Fed chair Mr. Powell’s comments. Seriously, do these government officials time their statements right at these critical price levels? Conspiracy theory anyone?

Someone sent me this video about Bonhoeffer’s Theory of Stupid and told me he is thankful that I did not give up on him years ago as suggested by the video. To me, it is really him who determined that he could not live the same way anymore that induced the transformation. However, it takes a lot of courage for those who have this realization to take the steps necessary to turn around their lives …

I could not believe that there is a YouTube channel called Canadian Prepper. I was looking for backup power and emergency items in case of power outage this coming winter. And it is very amusing to see how far preppers can go to prepare for survival. This video talks about storing dry food powder that can last for 20 years.

Bought my son a compact hunting knife as birthday gift and taught him some basics on using one. Basic survival skills are rarely taught anywhere these days. In an emergency, they put the odds on your side. I am grateful I got the chance to learn them when I was young.

For those of you astronomy fans, I found this stunning video of Europa, one of the moons of Jupiter.

Right on the last day of Mercury retrograde, my VPN server completely broke down and I have to replace the computer. I thought my nightmare was over until the next morning I found my stock market historical data server frozen. Although I have full backup of everything, I still need to get the machine working again. After days of observation, it is now clear that it is a hardware failure issue as the computer just freeze up randomly. So my other projects have to be put on hold until I setup a new server to replace this computer too.

I agreed to do a podcast with Better System Trader coming Monday night. For those of you interested in trading, tune-in by then or wait for the video on YouTube. Actually I don’t know if you can tune-in live …

Back to my painfully slow process of setting up a new server here.

Have a great weekend all!

Maximum Chaos with Many Planets Going From Retrograde Back To Direct In October 2021

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With Mercury turned retrograde September 27, we now have quite a number of planets in retrograde, a rare event by itself. However, it is even more rare that quite a number of them will go direct in October. This signifies potential drastic changes to the world. Buckle up for the ride.

Pluto is the first one going direct on October 7.

Then Saturn will go direct October 12.

Jupiter is next on October 18.

Mercury will join Jupiter going direct the same day.

These days are not that precise and various camps of astrology use slightly different definitions.

The point is that when a planet is in retrograde, its influence will be messed up or weaken.

When a planet comes out of its retrograde, there could be a sudden surge in people’s emotions and energy on the specific areas in their life affected by the planet.

Compound that with new moon happening on 6th and full moon on 20th, both near a planet going direct, will magnify the effect even more.

So do some house keeping by listing out what is bothering you at the moment. Learn to not act on your impulse or your emotion for these troubling areas in this coming October. Things will be easier to deal with after the changes settle down.

I am not those “sky is falling” people who proclaim that October will be very bad, or very good, depending on your belief. Call me eternally optimistic, I believe awareness is the key to handle life as it is. If you haven’t done so, you may start by learning some breathing exercises to improve your awareness.

Good luck!

TLC Weekly Update September 3, 2021

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Last month of the third quarter just started. Another week of all-time-high price actions. Some gurus even believe that the stock market will continue to melt up just like Germany back in 1919 to 1933. If so, I guess we will see S&P500 going a lot higher from here.

For those of you who find meditation not your cup of tea, there are other ways to achieve the same. From my family’s tradition Chinese medicine teaching, we have all these breathing techniques that claim to achieve wonderful results. And now science confirms that the claims are true.

I still find the scientific explanation making things too complicated though. Common sense – use it or lose it.

A video about the rarely mentioned issue with interference on our computers from outer space. I guess blaming the stars for my computer woes has some merit after all. The damn Mercury retrograde is coming back to haunt us from September 27 to October 17. Prepare for machine malfunctions by then.

Talking about computer trouble, one of my trusted Surface Pro 6 got BSOD and it looks like its hard drive died after 2 years of everyday use. I am glad that I bought the full extended warranty on the machine. 3 days after I reported this to Microsoft, the replacement is already at my door. Although I don’t like Microsoft much, this superior customer service is definitely worth mentioning here.

A very good follow-up on the Great Barrington Declaration by Unherd. During this covid crisis, we hear nothing from governments worldwide doing anything resemble common sense. The declaration made by these brave medical professionals was not only ignored but also led to hardship on them for speaking out. This is the ultimate sign that the so-called democracy based systems around the world is failing …

My busy schedule continues to use up all my time. Progress is made but not as quickly as I hope for. That’s the natural of research and development – it takes time to get results.

Have a great long weekend everyone!

A Non-Conventional Approach to Investing by Following the Long Term Cycles of CEOs and Hedge Fund Managers

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The financial industry is full of idiotic ideas on how to pick the right stocks using all kinds of so-called scientific approaches like fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Lately, they even added physicists and other hard science PhDs to find new ways to profit from the markets. Based on my 30+ years of trading experience, however, none of these stuff works consistently. They don’t work well because markets really move due to aggregated human beliefs, not because of some voodoo earning multiples that someone from the past telling you that 8 is normal and 20 is too high.

So what has Wall Street missed in finding a way to beat the markets?

Well, they failed to utilize the most esoteric analysis tool of all – astrology.

I am not talking about Western astrology here. I am talking about classic Chinese astrology that has a full fledge system in determining a person’s luck cycles with money, fame and career. Instead of looking at a company’s birth chart like many Western astrologers assumed to be of any significance, why not look at the person who has most to lose on the rise and fall of a company’s stock price?

Yep, I just said it. All you need to do to see if a stock is going higher is to find a company founder or just anyone whose wealth is more than 50% tied to a stock. If that person is entering a lucky cycle with money and wealth, the stock price would go higher, if this postulate really works.

We can even extend this concept to look at the famous hedge fund managers to see if they are in their lucky cycle or not. If they are lucky, lean on their bets. If they are unlucky, bet against them, or at least be very careful if you agree with them.

So I finally say it out loud publicly that astrology may have useful applications after all, aside from being a party trick or entertainment among friends.

If this approach really works, the implication is far more interesting than just discovering yet another market timing tool. Think deeply on how Western culture likes to worship all these big company founders and famous market gurus. Public regards whatever these people say about their philosophy in running businesses and in investing as some kind of wisdom to learn from. But in reality, if my conjecture is correct, they were probably in their lucky cycle that manifested into fame and fortune. Once their luck is gone, whatever they say no longer has that magic quality …

This also creates another issue often misused by casual astrologers. Many people who believe in astrology often go one step too far assuming they can find all the reasons of success from the exact birth time of a famous person. That is so wrong. For even the most famous billionaire of our time, at the moment, Bill Gates, has other people who were born at the same time he was, in the same city and did not fare as well as Mr. Gates does financially.

In short, we maybe able to use astrology to identify important decision time and the luck cycles but the rest is all about personal choices and the environment influence. Accept the limitation of astrology will help one use it correct.

Here comes the challenge: who should I choose to experiment with and see if the Chinese astrology system really works?

Tell me who you want to be studied first.

I will work out the specifics and post it here.

Let the experiment begins!

TLC Weekly Update July 2, 2021

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2021 2nd quarter finally ended. We just got our Canada Day on the first and this weekend July 4th for United States. It is a long weekend for people like me who work with the US stock markets. It is also my chance to take a break from my hectic schedule and hopefully get some rest.

Another young chess player just got his grandmaster title this week. His name is Abhimanyu Mishra from United States. He breaks the record of being the youngest grandmaster that held for 19 years. Here is a video of him talking about his experience.

Master Lock has outdone itself again with this combination lock – it is so bad you don’t need to pick the lock to have it opened. LockPickingLawyer has done it again!

I have learned something very fascinating about smell and how that affects animals. Dr. Huberman takes it a step further with interesting studies on how you breath and smell can affect your ability to learn and and remember things. For those of you like to learn more about this, check out his podcast #25.

For some mysterious reason the hardware problems that gave me so much headache is now gone. Everything has been working fine since Mercury retrograde ended. Could that be me and my team who finally fixed the technical problems or is that something unexplainable happened? I will let you decide.

I was told that this coming week or two are very significant because of the astrological setup in the sky. Well, so far this year nothing much really happened even though many people claiming more bad things should be happening. Hopefully these predictions will be proven wrong and that our lives can go back to normal soon.

Time for me to take a break this long weekend!

To my U.S readers, Happy Independence Day!

TLC Weekly Update June 25, 2021

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Another week of the stock market squeezing the shorts hard. Next week is end of quarter and the long weekend. I wonder if any bears will be left by the end of next week.

An interesting read about Peter Thiel’s Roth IRA. After reading the whole article, I get a sense of hatred from the author against Mr. Thiel as if he has done something wrong. But what he did is perfectly legal and in fact more people should have done the same. You may not have bought a future unicorn startup but that your relative’s venture of opening a bar may offer you a very decent return still.

Lately many people asked about the upcoming market crash. Well, if that many people are concerned about it, especially from those who are not active investors, it is a sign that even if there is a crash coming, it will take a long time before it happens. How long? Until these people no longer think that the market crash is going to happen …

Ray Dalio has a talk lately whether the stock market is in a bubble. He did a good job explaining the dilemma of the concept and what he thinks the current market level represents. It is a short video worth watching.

Lately there are many “fake” experts posting videos about COVID and the vaccines. These fake experts are usually medical doctors trying to jump on the bandwagon of this trending topic to get more views. However, you must understand that someone with MD is not a scientist. Many of them do not have the proper training to think scientifically. One telltale sign to look for with these fake experts is that they try to explain technical details that they barely understand themselves …

It is hard for normal people to judge who can be trusted on YouTube. It is even more difficult to tell if an “expert” is really an expert at all on the subject they talk about. Adding potential evil intentions and human ignorance to the equation, my suggestion is to stop binge watching COVID related videos. It is better go outside to have a walk and do some exercise. I am sure that will do you more good.

I am very glad that Mercury retrograde is finally over. I experienced so many BSOD within past few weeks that I already lost count. And communication problems also flare up as expected from paperwork missing to outright misunderstanding of some simple terms. Hopefully things get back to normal soon.

I am happy that my self imposed deadline helps me unleash my potential in productivity so much that I think I will have time to spare before end of June. That also means I may be able to give myself a holiday break during next week’s Canada Day / US Independence Day long long weekend. It feels great when I get things done with time to spare.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update June 4, 2021

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Non-Farm Payroll report today helps sending the stock market higher so far this morning. Looks like we are back to the bad data is good for the stock market regime. How long would it last though given so much money has been pumped into the system yet we are not seeing what the politicians promised …

I found this pair of videos very amusing. First, an attempt to make an unpickable lock. And then how this lock was picked. The way these two guys interact may lead to some real improvements in making locks, finally.

Lately I find an explosion of horoscope videos on YouTube. Many are jumping onto this new era of superstition to see if they can make a career out of it. Well, being an astrologer is not for everyone. Circular argument, ignorance of obvious common sense and choose to creatively interpret the astrology classics would not turn one into an expert of astrology overnight.

I found this video a great snapshot of at least a part of the crypto crowd’s mentality. The theme is really nothing new. Going all-in for instant gratification and when things not going their way just lie to themselves that they are in this for the long term.

I am not against playing with cryptos. I made very decent profit from it myself and have no complain. What I like to point out is that new technology of every generation always led to extreme speculations and crashes. Right now we are going through the process of elimination of those things that should not exist in the first place. Think for a moment, how many of those 9000+ coins are really worth anything at all?

This process usually takes several years to complete. I will take the sign that when these 9000+ coins are reduced down to like fewer than 300, the crypto space will be ready for its next phase.

I was asked a very interesting question the other day about automated strategy generation. My take is very simple, the current quant approach to strategy development, including AI based and genetic programming, will only yield models that are bounded by their framework. As long as the framework they use stays the same, which is serial data analysis, they will not be able to discover anything useful or consistent over time. I collect these platforms since the 1990s and never stop testing out these stuff. Nothing impress me at all so far …

This month I have to focus on polishing our prop trading models. I work best alone when serious research work is required. It feels great to get things done this way.

Have a good weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update May 28, 2021

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Today is last trading day for the month of May, It is also the lowest volume week so far for the year. I don’t know what the implication is. Maybe just that the weather is getting so nice that people prefer to go outside to get some fresh air instead of staring at their screens all day.

Next Monday is Memorial Day, a US holiday. As a Canadian, I rarely have a break on Canadian holidays if US markets are open. My holiday schedule actually follows the US ones. So next Monday I will be able to carry out some long overdue chores finally.

This is a very good video on Robinhood IPO Access. Mr. Boyle goes in-depth explaining how IPO works and the historical statistics on IPOs. I could not have done it better myself. So if you want to understand IPOs better, or that you want to invest in IPOs, watch the entire video.

Another process disrupted by internet connectivity – startup funding, has led to some interesting change in the makeup of startup investors. I am not sure what will happen to startup funding with a down trend in economy that almost everyone is expecting that to happen “soon”. The enabling of young people to easily invest into startups is a double-edged sword. Young people often lacks the knowledge and life experience to make smart investment decisions. On the other hand, they have time on their side. With just one good bet on a startup, it can be life changing for them in the future.

For this Memorial Day long weekend, enjoy this video of scotch and puzzle. I like watching this youtube channel during my lunch hour because the videos are pretty short and can distract my mind from my work. A form of ASMR maybe?

For those of you who are into astrology, tomorrow is the start of Mercury retrograde until June 22. I assume astrology fans already know about its general implications. But there is one unique feature of the pattern that people rarely talks about. the 10 days around the start of the retrograde is also a time of inspiration for those who conduct research and deep learning. So take your time to reflect and dive deep in coming few days can help you discover new understanding in things you are stuck at.

I just completed a round of hardware upgrade on my servers to make sure they are battle ready for my prop trading launch. Now that the hardware are mostly ready, I will go back to fine tune the software side. So much work, and as usual, so little time.

Have a great long weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update February 12, 2021

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Today is the official lunar new year. Well, technically it was Feb 11th 2:03 pm Eastern Time for the new moon to take effect. However, lunar calendar is limited by human ability to call a day two different ways (i.e. too complex for normal people) so the next closest day has to do it.

There is absolutely no celebration of any kind visible in various areas in the city where Asians having stronger presence. The lockdown is not over. Restaurants can only sell take outs or do deliveries. Even family members not living in the same household is technically not allowed to visit each other unless “absolutely necessary”.

Psychologically, lockdown is taking a toll on many people. If you are one of those who got depressed by lockdown, please try to do some exercise and learn to do meditation to counter the effect. Even simple breathing exercise can help. Don’t let the world crumble around you just because of the dumb decisions by the government officials.

For Bitcoin fans, here is an interesting story about a bitcoin billionaire. The rise of bitcoin’s status from not recognized by the banks to the point that the banks stating that they must be involved now means a lot to the BTC crowd. What holds in the future though is anyone’s guess.

Lately Goldman Sachs did an interview on Stanley Druckenmiller. He is one of the best minds in the investment world. His take on the current market environment is useful for anyone having investments in the markets.

I came across this video of a 12-year-old kid who built a nuclear fusion machine. This makes me wonder … all these hypes on electric cars that ignore the fact that making an electric car has a front load of environment pollution equal to the amount of pollution generated by a normal car over 20 years time span. Serious research effort should be made to power cars by nuclear fusion, not electricity.

Another week just fly by so quickly I find it hard to believe it is already mid February. I have so many things I need to get done yesterday. I guess I will be busy as usual in foreseeable future.

Have a great weekend all!

Oh …

Happy Lunar New Year!

TLC Weekly Update February 5, 2021

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Another wild ride in the stock market this Non-Farm Payroll week. Majority of the bears must be questioning their existence due to the melt up style rally all week giving us yet another all time high in S&P500 and Nasdaq 100.

Well, this deal or no deal dynamics of the stimulus package has been affecting the stock market ever since last quarter. Whenever a bigger deal is promised, stock market jumps higher. Whenever there is rumor of no deal, the stock market jumps even higher because a deal is imminent.

Now that today US Senate approved the package and US Congress has the ability to pass it easily … it will be interesting to see if we get “buy the rumor, sell the news” effect.

I am not sure about you, but I did indeed dropped my cellphone into water more than once. This article provides some good tips on how to deal with the unfortunate event.

For the sake of fun, I watched this video on machines peeling eggs … very interesting. I was searching for automation related videos and this one shows up … maybe I should be more specific with my search.

And this video show up when I search for building things manually … it is a long documentary video that you do not need to watch it from the beginning to the very end. This kid is just amazing. He is probably one of those who can survive WW3.

This weekend I have to reorganize my computers and doing some hardware upgrades. Given my luck lately, things probably will not work out as expected. I will take it slow so that I will not mess things up. After all, it is Mercury retrograde from Jan 30 to Feb 21, for those of you who are into astrology stuff.

After taking care of the hardware, there are tons of paperwork waiting for me. I guess there is no break this weekend.

Have a great weekend all!