TLC Weekly Update April 29, 2022

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Can’t believe end of April is already here. And we are going to end it with a solar eclipse. How interesting it is.

Read an interesting article about micronations. I wonder, what if, that all these natural disasters depicted in movies happen in real life. Then the so-called nations we have around the world will be meaningless as law and order cannot be enforced. In fact, we are seeing the early sign of that in many parts of United States and Canada where crimes of all kinds are rising. Should things get really bad, I guess forming gangs and tribes with military capacity protecting one’s turf will be necessary.

Just like the TV show Walking Dead …

Ray Dalio is repeating his message again in this interview by Tom Bilyeu. That subtle hint of geographic risk means so much as he moved to Singapore. His actions tell us how serious it is.

For those of you interested in spiritual world, I bump into this video of a dying human being scanned in his final moment. I’ve heard some people call this flash back of one’s entire life as “soul review”. If you are interested in the subject, you can search that up and knock yourself out with many hours of videos.

The selloff in the stock markets we’ve seen in April is not really as bad as many people think. Why? The insane level of rise in big tech stocks over the past two years created “pockets” of weaknesses that has to be taken care of first. Whether this selloff will turn into something more serious will heavily depends on geopolitical issues.

Time to get back to work.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update April 8, 2022

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This is Sunday April 10th that I got the chance to sit down and write about the week. Totally lost track of time …

The talk of the market (and the world) this week obviously goes to Elon Musk accumulated significant percentage of shares of Twitter. Twitter stocks got a boost of like 25% and more right after he announced his move. So, the big question is whether a fucked company like Twitter could be fixed with Musk sitting in the board. My guess is …. it will take a long time.

But the way Musk interacted with Michael Burry is priceless, enjoy!

I was told to check out this website for their very interesting world model. Pay attention to figure 4 in the article. It has done a great job forecasting the future so far.

I watched this video, a clip from the podcast by Tim Ferriss with Susan Cain, on inheriting the grief of ancestors. I find the idea very interesting because in Chinese astrology, if you collect multiple generations of birth data from within a family, one will notice that certain recurring patterns exist. If you like what they talked about, you may as well watch the complete podcast.

It is first time ever since Magnus Carlsen became World Champion in classical chess that there are so many strong players emerged to participate in the 2022 candidate tournament. It will be very interesting who will be the winner to challenge Carlsen next year. Here is a video of Carlsen winning a game in such a way that it destroyed a specific line of chess from being played ever since.

More work and not enough time seems like something I am stuck with in coming weeks. Workflow from a completely rearranged work environment has its unintended consequences. For example, my trusted compact printer was fried after 10 years of working daily. After unplugging it for a few days and reconnected it at a new spot, it died on me.

Another 10-year cycle thing?

Enjoy the rest of this weekend everyone!

TLC Weekly Update February 18, 2022

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There is a first time for everything. So I have completely forgotten to write this weekly update last week for the first time. I am so overwhelmed by work that I don’t even recall that I missed the writing until this Wednesday. Time flies.

The biggest news here in Canada is the abuse of power by Justin Trudeau for declaring emergency state due to the protests by the truckers. Everyone in Canada knows that he is a corrupted little weasel. Now, we know that he is not only corrupted but also a coward and disgrace to the human species. Sad to see the police forces here not arresting him instead of the truckers.

Congratulation to Hikaru for winning the first leg of the FIDE Grand Prix 2022 classical chess competition. The last game is epic, check it out.

For those of you thinking chess is a game for people who just sit a lot, check out this video on GM Dubov doing pull ups. This is super human strength.

Many traders who jump into trading without learning much about the industry can learn a lot from this video. Jane Street being one of the biggest liquidity providers are often taking the opposite side of your trade. Very interesting take on the crypto markets too.

Back to work again.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update January 28, 2022

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All the major big techs have already reported their earnings. However, it seems like people couldn’t decide if interest rate hikes will destroy the future growth or not. Crazy wild swings every hour at 1 to 2% everyday all week while the normal average range for a whole trading day being 1% to 1.5%, you know people are very emotional and not likely to be thinking clearly.

For those of you who is open minded to listen to a more reasonable narrative about the current market situation, check out this video with Jeremy Grantham. Grantham is famous for his calls of the major bubbles in history with his distinctive career in the financial industry for more than 50 years. Many retail investors who has no patience nor the aptitude to understand Grantham’s philosophy in investing will probably hate his approach because he does not provide precise timing which is a dumb idea in the first place for any longer term investments.

But for those of you willing to listen and reflect deeply, you will gain a lot of insights into the current market environment.

The biggest news in Canada at the moment is the Canadian Truckers rally against the Trudeau government’s tyranny of vaccine mandate. Personally, I can tell that Trudeau, a perfect example of a man child who knows nothing but scamming and lying to the public, should resign now. The future world will be very unforgiving to these politicians who messed up the world for two whole years.

Good news though in other countries that more are dropping all restrictions related to covid. My conjecture that this scam will be over pretty soon looks good.

Another great video coming from Patrick Boyle explaining the current situation in China. He makes several good points about what to expect economically in the near future for China. For those of you thinking that investing in China as a diversification from the US markets, you should definitely watch this before making a rushed decision.

Snow storm is expected this weekend and extreme cold warning is issued here in Toronto. So I am stuck at home again. What’s better than focus on work?

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update November 12, 2021

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Another week of roller coaster ride with Tesla shares plunging more than 15% thanks to Musk declared that he is selling his shares. Tesla never stops amazing me that it moves like a penny stock all the time. How can a company with market valuation ranking as one of the top ten worldwide havs its stock price moving like crazy?

According to Nassim Taleb, Bitcoins worth zero by valuation because its price is so unstable that it is impossible to valuate it properly given the risk it presents. His argument also includes many more factors but what I like to say is that using the same argument, Tesla also worth near nothing given the fact that it is selling nothing more than thin air. None of its promises are delivered so far and all its so called profits are really the dividends from government subsidies as pointed out by Michael Burry.

I have no position on Tesla at all so it is not a hit piece on Tesla. If Tesla were a charity like those dotcom stocks that declare themselves having no intention to become profitable ever, I would understand the noble intention. But I don’t think Tesla wants to become a charity. My guess is that Tesla will have a tough time ahead going into year 2022 if it continues to deliver nothing but empty promises. For those Tesla fans, if you have profit on the stock it is time to consider your exit plans.

A deep conversation between Tom Bilyeu and Ian McGilchrist on youtube. I like the fact that McGilchrist pointed out the majority of Nobel Prize winners in physics are religious. Yet the woke crowd and less knowledgeable people think that they know more than these hard science deep thinkers …

Jordan Peterson just made his first public speech over a long period of time. This time the topic is about free speech which is of great concern to all of us given the current political environment where almost all western governments turn into woke machines and tyranny.

Since I am throwing two videos out here with “controversial” topics why not including a third one on climate change. I was able to predict with pretty good accuracy on the extreme weather changes just based on astrological calculations of the net electromagnetic influence on Earth. I even mentioned in my past newsletters several years ago than we should see food prices and fuel prices going through the roof due to these expected changes.

I am not trying to claim that I know more than the so-called climate scientists. But hiding facts and deleting key data to fit the narrative of what you want to say is not science. That only makes them liars.

After the podcast with Better System Trader, I find that I am quite comfortable with the format and maybe I can add new materials to daytradingbias site this way. After all, I have prepared a bunch of topics to be added but never get the time to complete them. I will have to take a look at them and figure out how to procced within my tight schedule.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update October 15, 2021

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We’ve got an early option expiration week due to the first of the month landed on Friday. No one seems to care about China’s potential financial crisis nor the skyrocketing gas prices as the stock markets have recovered much as of today. The earnings of the major companies, however, are lined up next week. So expect volatility to return then.

Watched this disturbing news regarding Biden’s mental health. What’s most disturbing is not that Biden looks completely disoriented and can’t even speak coherently.  The most disturbing issue is that none of the mainstream media and major media platforms have any reporting about this in US and Canada. I thought China was the evil communist country that sensor this kind of news …

Imagine a world with tires that do not require pumping. I will definitely replace my car with these tires when they become available.

A lot of people do not know that they are lactose intolerant. The reaction to drinking milk is not always that serious for many people if the amount they drink is small. Many people have low awareness of their bodies’ internal reactions to food. Hence it is difficult to help people understand this issue which has huge impact on their overall health.

In Toronto, the Autumn season is real short. Sometimes it is just a few weeks and the temperature will drop to below zero. The street I walk by has this interesting scene where trees growing on one side of the road are still green and on the other side, all turned yellow.

Hopefully this winter we don’t need to deal with too much snow.

Have a nice weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update October 1, 2021

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What a quarterly end we got this Thursday! The congress tug-of-war sideshow is really getting old – deal or no deal based on lies and deceptions. It is still a budget to spend the future money they will never have. Bots acting on the no deal b.s. hammered the stock markets lower before open and then the stock markets magically rally all the way back up thanks to Powell and gang’s hardworking team.

Can’t help with the sarcasm. Maybe I have been trading for way too long.

Here is an interesting comment made by South China Morning Post’s editor. Maybe, just maybe, that the younger generations no longer care about the “real world” out there anymore?

Nassim Taleb taking a jab at a psychology research paper referred to by Adam Grant. It is a good lesson to learn from because Nassim pointed out an important point in statistics that is often ignored by people applying statistical analysis. Again, the lack of understanding the probability world led to conclusions that are obviously wrong.

An interview of Jordan Peterson on current matters. It is an hour long discussion so plan ahead if you intend to watch it. His take on the current situations around the world really worries me much. How low will the Western politicians sink before we see common sense and responsibilities return?

Mercury retrograde started this week and has already claimed casualties against our computer network. One of the major components of our servers is the tunneling through PureVPN. Our dedicated IP server suddenly went offline during market hours. Took us a while to figure out what happened. And then reporting the problem to PureVPN led to more frustration because they said it would take 12 hours to get the server up and running. This has never happened before …

If you are a long time reader you may recall that the start and end of Mercury retrograde can be a great time for research breakthrough. Since I am well prepared to utilize this opportunity, I managed to solve the final piece of the puzzle to my price discovery theory. We are talking about decades long journey that comes to an end. Since I feel so great that I will celebrate this with a short break over the weekend.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update September 17, 2021

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Today is quarterly expiration for index options, index futures and index future options. More and more retail traders are engaging in option trading activities. That in turn forced the market makers to create larger and larger hedged positions that has to be unwind by option expiration. The exaggerated price swings are expected. There is really no need for the MSM trying so hard to explain everything …

ZH has an interesting article about covid situation in Sweden. Not that I am a conspiracy theorist but how can we not thinking about this whole mandatory vaccination and vaccine passport mess worldwide being a evil plan or some sort?

Here is an educational video about sex that feels so awkward due to the fear of offending some people. Science is now being robbed of its function and identity in this messed up world …

For those of you who find it hard to engage in difficult conversations, this video from Tim Ferriss is a nice framework to learn from.

I have been very busy all week and I told my friends that I wish there are 28 hours a day. So many things I am trying to get done yet something always comes up that has to be taken care of first. Let’s see if this troubling trend will end next week.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update September 10, 2021

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Rollover week for index futures this week. So far this week volatility picked up a bit but every attempt to move lower are forced back up fiercely. All overnight selloffs are erased so that normal people can’t tell that they ever happened as it does not show in their portfolio. Now that today the markets finally have a weak weekly close, what do you think Powell will do this weekend?

CGP Grey has done another crazy project again. Enjoy the fruit of his work here. This is how research on historical records really looks like.

I found this series of videos the best summary of Charles Mungers life long wisdom. No matter you invest or not, his “techniques” for handling life and everything else is the best self-help advices you can get. It can be easy to just listen to the series and forget about it right after. So I recommend watch it, reflect on each individual mental model and learn to incorporate that into your own decision making process.

Here is a less technical video about virus which addresses a fundamental concept, are they alive? When we discuss about the covid situation, everyone has an opinion but normal people most likely have a completely wrong mental picture about virus. In fact there is no unified understanding of what they are at all because we still know very little about them. Science is still very lacking on this frontier …

Thus I can’t understand why talking about common sense like personal hygiene, exercise, healthy diet and exposure to sun (or direct Vitamin D intake) as first line of defense against covid are banned on YouTube and various mainstream media. I have received many links from others quoting “factcheck dot org” on related materials that they are all “false”. Unluckily, everything I read so far from that site are written in evasive language to misguide people.

Who is going to fact check the fact checker, eh?

As usual, I will focus on my work and hopefully getting more things done. When the world has fallen into chaos, shutout the noises and keep oneself busy really help.

Have a great weekend all!

A Non-Conventional Approach to Investing by Following the Long Term Cycles of CEOs and Hedge Fund Managers

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The financial industry is full of idiotic ideas on how to pick the right stocks using all kinds of so-called scientific approaches like fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Lately, they even added physicists and other hard science PhDs to find new ways to profit from the markets. Based on my 30+ years of trading experience, however, none of these stuff works consistently. They don’t work well because markets really move due to aggregated human beliefs, not because of some voodoo earning multiples that someone from the past telling you that 8 is normal and 20 is too high.

So what has Wall Street missed in finding a way to beat the markets?

Well, they failed to utilize the most esoteric analysis tool of all – astrology.

I am not talking about Western astrology here. I am talking about classic Chinese astrology that has a full fledge system in determining a person’s luck cycles with money, fame and career. Instead of looking at a company’s birth chart like many Western astrologers assumed to be of any significance, why not look at the person who has most to lose on the rise and fall of a company’s stock price?

Yep, I just said it. All you need to do to see if a stock is going higher is to find a company founder or just anyone whose wealth is more than 50% tied to a stock. If that person is entering a lucky cycle with money and wealth, the stock price would go higher, if this postulate really works.

We can even extend this concept to look at the famous hedge fund managers to see if they are in their lucky cycle or not. If they are lucky, lean on their bets. If they are unlucky, bet against them, or at least be very careful if you agree with them.

So I finally say it out loud publicly that astrology may have useful applications after all, aside from being a party trick or entertainment among friends.

If this approach really works, the implication is far more interesting than just discovering yet another market timing tool. Think deeply on how Western culture likes to worship all these big company founders and famous market gurus. Public regards whatever these people say about their philosophy in running businesses and in investing as some kind of wisdom to learn from. But in reality, if my conjecture is correct, they were probably in their lucky cycle that manifested into fame and fortune. Once their luck is gone, whatever they say no longer has that magic quality …

This also creates another issue often misused by casual astrologers. Many people who believe in astrology often go one step too far assuming they can find all the reasons of success from the exact birth time of a famous person. That is so wrong. For even the most famous billionaire of our time, at the moment, Bill Gates, has other people who were born at the same time he was, in the same city and did not fare as well as Mr. Gates does financially.

In short, we maybe able to use astrology to identify important decision time and the luck cycles but the rest is all about personal choices and the environment influence. Accept the limitation of astrology will help one use it correct.

Here comes the challenge: who should I choose to experiment with and see if the Chinese astrology system really works?

Tell me who you want to be studied first.

I will work out the specifics and post it here.

Let the experiment begins!