Author: Lawrence Chan

A first ever event just happened to the stock market this week, 9 days straight up sending SPX back up to the level before the Trump tariff announcement. So are we on our way to new all time high then?

I don’t know – this bounce was expected but it is not unfolding the way that many FURUs think. We are at a crossroad here – if the tariff mess continue to unfold as expected, meaning that the fight between US and China should last at least 1-2 years, the stock market will not be heading higher. On the other hand, if Trump can take care of the tariff mess in coming 2 weeks, optimism will take over and squeeze the shorts so hard that a new all-time-high is reasonable.

One thing I noticed is that Trump is definitely in fear when the US bond markets are not responding positively to his tariff game. And in multiple occasions he and his team straight out lie to the world that they are in talk with China about the tariff. This is not a good sign because it tells us that he is no different from anyone else in the same position. So called transparency only applies when it is convenient to him.

Here is a bearish view of the situation. Or if you prefer to listen to a person who is wrong on everything all the time, check out this video instead.

In coming months, what matters most is definitely the US bond markets, and this video captured the essence of what US is facing at the moment.

For those of you don’t care about the financial markets much, enjoy this Chris Williamson podcast with Naval Ravikant. I like this one a lot.

Back to work as usual for me.

Have a great weekend all!

After serious trouble emerged in the US bond markets, Trump did what all politicians do all the time – lie to the world that there will be a deal, and he will lower tariff against China, etc. The Mag 7 stocks overall gave the impression that things are not going that bad so far. Hence we got a magically lift 4 days in a row in the US stock market.

Is the stock market correction over? Maybe. Is the real crash coming? Maybe.

This is a event driven market environment – so far the way things are unfolding is not stable. The focus on tariff being the reason for the selloff, is a lie. The real reason has always been the infinite printing by Bank of Japan that allowed the Yen Carry Trade to happen for over 15 years is now being cornered again like July 2024. Last time the central banks managed to stop the bleeding by extreme measures. This time, however, it does not look like the central banks can do anything at all.

Here is a better summary of what we are dealing with at this point. Of course, there is always something else to be bullish on.

Instead of listening to the FURUs, why not listening to these two wise men on their takes of the current US-China trade war. Their takes can surprise many China haters.

Another very busy week ahead …

Have a great weekend all!

After a crazy week of of extreme volatility in the stock market, we have a relatively quiet market this week. In addition to that, it is also a shortened trading week thanks to Easter Friday. What makes this week special is that the normal option expiration for the month was supposed to be yesterday, but due to Easter holiday, the expiration is pushed one day earlier on Thursday. That explains a lot why Thursday was relatively quiet and stuck in range.

Next week, it will be a lot more complicated thanks to earning reports from Tesla on Tuesday, Japan tariff negotiators left US without any sign of progress over the weekend, etc.

Bears are all focusing on the potential of a melt down scenario while the bulls believe that the correction can be over anytime soon.

People are all too serious about this tariff fiasco. Check out this lighter take on US tariffs.

And, pay attention to what doomberg said … a very timely piece on the current situation.

In a time of uncertainty, what’s more fitting than another dose of astrology talk of what we are dealing with now. Personally, I find that people who take astrology too seriously lose their ability to take things less seriously. Life is too short to keep thinking that next “important” astro setup in the sky will disrupt the world …

Happy Easter!

We just experienced the most volatile week in the entire history of the US stock market. Nasdaq 100 index future actually went limit down at 7% without breaking the previous trading day low for 2 minutes. The exchange authorities, however, chose not to lock up NQ and waited for S&P index future to do the same before activating the market pause protocol. Lucky for those who bet on a bounce from there, ES did not drop to 7% limit down and started to recover fiercely.

What does this imply? No one wants to see lock limit down happening, at least not the exchange officials.

This is a clear warning sign to the bears – you can only win, when those in power let you to.

So what can we expect from here. Well, Trump has another announcement made today exempting all the consumer hi-tech products from the reciprocal tariff. So all the big techs will squeeze much higher by Sunday evening.

There is no need to guess why … you just need to watch this video to understand.

One thing that stands out during last week was the US bonds (and European bonds too) are selling together with the stock markets. Many people learned from media or even classes in finance / economics that shouldn’t happen. Well, it did. And you can learn about the reason why from Jeff.

And those perma bears all jumped out of their closets and screaming that they warned you, blah blah blah.

Well, did they called the top? No.

Do they know why the market is selling off from that top? No.

Stop listening to these idiots can help you staying calm if you have a significant stock portfolio.

Personally, I think people are just influenced badly by the current astro setup in the sky. Don’t worry. Clarity will come soon enough by April 14. Why? This is the date for which majority of those planets that were in retrograde over the past 2 months are now returning to normal motion. Although it is still tough to navigate the current environment economically and financially, going forward we can at least gaining clarity of what will happen next.

Lots of work piled up. Catch up time for me.

Have a great weekend all!

What a week for the US stock market – no one believes Trump’s tariff plan has such impact on the financial markets until it was announced. The shock sent the stock market lower by around 10% going into Friday. And dumb hedge funds are piling onto shorts at extreme level going into the close.

I said dumb hedge funds because they are dumb – they are over leveraged at 150% long right at the top and now after the stock market dropped like 15% from the top they went all-in going short? That’s a great indicator of a great market bottom is coming very quickly to make sure these funds are toasted again.

For those of you who hold onto old thinking of the financial markets with classic useless shit like Elliott Wave, etc. watch this video by Cem Karsan. The financial markets are changing and how the markets behave on anything beyond one day is no longer the same. Hence all these b.s. warning of another black Monday is coming, whatsoever, is not the reality we are dealing with these days.

This normal correction of the stock market is just business as usual – we always have 8% to 15% market correction almost every year ever since we have that Dow Industrial Average Index. The funny thing though, is that for some reason, similar to the very predictable non-farm payroll bias, that people choose to not remembering these market patterns and instead letting their emotions flying high with every market up and downs …

On the other hand, a lot of people are talking trash about the tariffs imposed by Trump. None of these people are qualified to even talk about tariffs in the first place, and especially those so called economists who have been wrong on everything all the time. What really matters is the net effect of the tariffs in a very connected world – check out this news update and you will see the implications of so called made in America “only” is next to impossible. In other words, we should see major revision to the tariffs as soon as this weekend.

This week we have trading server updates so that will keep me busy all weekend.

Have a great weekend all!