TLC Weekly Update September 30, 2023


Third quarter end this year now being the worst quarter end on record for the major indices. However, the bulls are so high right now that their all important support zone is saved. Many of them loaded up on this “pullback” target looking for at least a retest of the year high. Even more interesting, the so-called bears out there all covering their shorts at this same zone as they can’t see why the stock market would go much lower.

In other words, everyone is bullish now, unlike what the AAII sentiment suggested. Actions speak louder than opinions. What if something out of the the blue happens, like, Bank of Japan fails to defend their financial system? Anyone really paying attention to the global financial system stability at all?

Or, what makes it alright to let the US Federal government to shutdown when US is actually at war with every non-NATO nations in the world?

I find this great example on ChatGPT that shows how stupid it really is. Of course, AI enthusiasts will say that we can train it to solve these problems too. What they failed to see is that by Godel’s Theorem, this blindspot within an AI system will forever not be able to get the correct answer with just a little twist to the conditions. In short, as I pointed out, AI will always be the most useless and being harmful when you seriously need it to help you solve a real problem.

Here is an interesting video update from David Lin talking with Milton Berg on what will happen next in the stock markets. Berg called the top successfully for the year so far so his opinion is definitely worth listening to.

Bill Ackman showed up at CNBC’s Delivering Alpha Summit and gave his insights on the current market environment. His bond short trade is now another legendary move on record. His talks are always interesting.

For my Asian fans, Happy Mid-Autumn Festival!

TLC Weekly Update September 23, 2023


What a difference a day makes … Bulls thought that they have Friday in their pocket after two consecutive selloff days. However, they are not strong enough to fend off the selling in the afternoon. Now, they are facing the first bearish weekly close that can threaten more downside in coming two to three weeks.

Right after FOMC announcement, Jeff Gundlach joined CNBC to comment on their decision on interest rate. What matters though, is that he has a webcast to his clients two weeks ago on the current market conditions. This webcast has a lot of very good information regarding various segments of the economy. Watching that will give you a much better idea why Gundlach said in that short comment.

Although I don’t like Peter Zeihan’s comments in general, there are something that is obvious yet people choose not to pay attention to. Hence, his take on China’s imminent economic collapse is important. It gives everyone who do not care what happens in China a chance to be prepared for the impact on the rest of the world.

Michael Gayed, whose favorite posts on X lately, is that something is f#*ked! I actually find his takes on the current market environment is on point. Unlike Ray Dalio, trying so hard to sugarcoat the fact that US and its allies are f$#ked, Gayed has explained in details of his approach and how the world, with majority of its participants all blindsided, that some odd event can trigger massive price adjustments in many financial markets.

Back to work for me as usual.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update September 16, 2023


Another extremely wild week ended for the stock market. Everyday it is as if something surprised the market and forced it to go in the opposite direction from the day before. By Friday close, it ended up closing somewhere near the close from the week before.

Jeff Gundlach talks about the current economy just several days ago. His detail explanation of the mortgage market is something anyone who has a mortgage should watch and learn from.

I loves this old video from Thoughty2 on fake martial arts. I find it very funny because I have watched many demonstration videos lately, from so-called martial art masters in China, demonstrating their so-called incredible fighting skills. I totally understand why these people have to boast because they need to make money from teaching their “arts”. However, fancy moves execution does not equal to ability to fight …

Jim Bianco’s take on energy prices actually matters. The price of gas here has been going straight up week after week. The pain is felt and a frequent mention in local news on TV. Looks to me it will wreck the economy hard for a long time.

Going back to work now. I have a long list of things to take care of this weekend.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update September 9, 2023


Next week is quarterly option expiration for stocks and stock market indices, it will be interesting to see how next week unfold due to another inside week was formed. I bet a very intense battle between the bulls and bears will start next week as majority of the professional traders come back from their summer vacation.

A very interesting take of the current stock market environment by Milton Berg, who successfully predicted a rally since early 2023.

Jeff Snider has made some very good points on the impact of higher oil price.

The Juice Media finally roasting Canada. Enjoy!

As usual, weekend is the time I catch up on m work. The only difference this time is that I am working from my cottage overlooking the lake. I am hoping a nice change of environment may help improve my productivity.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update September 2, 2023


Another Non-Farm Payroll week that caught the perma bears by surprise. And the silly bulls are dancing and celebrating their victory. Both camps should calm down and enjoy this long weekend. Relax! Next week can be something completely different, again.

I found this documentary on Mrs. Watanabe a great summary on this subject and its effect worldwide. If you have never heard of this, its definitely worth watching the whole video.

Brent Johnson of “US Dollar Milkshake” fame discussing the effect of China’s economic troubles.

A good overview of the current trading landscape across multiple markets including bitcoin, AI, etc.

As a short term trader, I don’t have strong opinions on long term outlook for the markets I trade. However, I notice madness is developing among many market participants. People can’t help themselves arguing all day on trading forums and X (formerly known as twitter) about where the market is heading.

One thing all investors and traders must remember is that how a market unfold in the future depends on its participants’ perception of the future but their views can change abruptly due to external events. For example, aliens suddenly declare their existence among us can totally disrupt our world. People keep saying these things are unpredictable so they choose to ignore such risk. Is ignoring these risk really make sense?

Although it is a long weekend, I have no time to take a break. Maybe sleep a little longer tonight?

Have a great long weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update August 26, 2023


What a week for the stock market – NVidia blowoff earning midweek and Powell hawkish statement on Friday gave the world completely opposite outcomes based on normal expectations. Nvidia earning sent its stock price up 11% on Wednesday night but then on Thursday all that gain were wiped out during normal market hours. Powell hawkish statement initially was thought to have pressured stock market lower on Friday but then the stock market went higher in the afternoon. Media and gurus keep trying to give an after the fact explanation of what happened. But does that matter?

Here is a video discussing Burry’s bearish bet in better context. For those of you who want to ride his coattail, watch it to gain a better understanding of the macro situation. But keep in mind that the real reason why Burry made the bet can be something else completely. And also remember that the reporting of one’s positions for each quarter has a 45 days time window. So between end of June and now, Burry’s position may have changed already.

I find this video has a more balanced view of the macro factors that will shape the near future of world economy. If you don’t want to watch this hour long video, I can summarize it here – we are f$#ked.

Back to work for me. No point overthinking much on what to do when the financial system collapse or reset.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update August 19, 2023


Option expiration week ended with SPX closing at the lowest level over the past few weeks. It is not something unexpected because of the largest technology companies had a huge rally earlier this year. Even if they are not crashing down, taking a breather for a few weeks is reasonable.

The biggest news in the financial world this week must be Michael Burry’s 13F filing. It is reported that he has positioned himself on a bearish outlook for the SPX and NDX indices using put options on SPY and QQQ. It is the largest position he has put on over the past few years. First, we do not know the expiration dates of these options. Second, we do not know the strike prices of these options. Most important of all, we do not really know if it is just a short term trade for a normal market correction which many pros expected, or a conviction trade that Burry thinks that something way worse is coming.

So no point to speculate why he is doing that. And more importantly, you can’t mimic what he does without more details. I am positioned since July on a major pullback for the big techs. I even posted charts on Twitter with the reasons and the expected downside targets. It is not that hard to figure this out.

An interesting discussion of our ever increasing demand of electricity by Patrick Boyle. His takes on EV and electrify everything are very reasonable and the expected eventual taxing on everything electric will come sooner than later. Here is my warning to anyone who think EV is the future, think of the flooding in China – the moment the power grid is down, all things electric are f$#ked.

Just search online for portable solar electric car charger and you will see all kinds of “promises” that in the future, it will become possible, but not now. I think the better answer is never. Many months ago I discussed this topic in detail from the astrology view point. In short, better expect a completely new energy source being developed than to believe whatever we have now will solve this forever increase in demand of electricity problem.

The doomers are thinking the sky is falling – an honest discussion of what to expect in the near future on the economic front.

And of course, there is David Hunter, who tells everyone that the melt up has not happened yet, and that sky is the limit for gold.

In a way, I agree with him, as long as the “one-two punch” I always refer to has not happened, the only solution for the governments and central banks worldwide is to keep printing. So hyperinflation will persist and of course, all risk assets will go through the roof.

Another busy weekend for me – can’t even take a break in the cottage country here the whole summer so far … I miss my cottage.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update August 12, 2023


After 2 weeks of volatile swings in the stock markets, we had a relatively quiet Friday to conclude the week. Next week we have option expiration week again for the month. I think another volatile week is coming so get ready to deal with it my fellow traders.

For those of you tracking many markets, here is the weekly take from Gareth Soloway on David Lin’s show.

Here is a funny clip of Cathie Wood on Bloomberg TV. It is very clear comparing this latest clip of her vs the ones from her good days when ARK was flying higher thanks to the bubble stocks she bought, that her words are no longer coherent. In the past, she bullshit her way using completely illogical garbage with ease and confidence. As a minimum, we know she does not know what is going on and obviously no idea what to expect next.

Here is a clip of Jordan Peterson’s statement regarding the future of his license in Canada. My take on this is clear – there is no future for countries like US, Canada or the West thanks to this path they are going down. I an see that these countries will crumble into chaos within a decade. How people will survive in these countries going forward can be very challenging.

Another weekend full of unexpected issues to deal with. As a start, one of our servers just suddenly stopped working middle of the week. Luckily I have backup servers ready for such situation. But then we have to build another backup server to stand-by. That’s the life of a CEO, when there are problems beyond the workload of your team, you are the last resort to solve the extra problems.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update August 5, 2023


The first week of August was also the end of July 2023. What a week!

The extreme opposite reactions to the earnings of Apple and Amazon is a sight to behold. funny thing is, they kind of offset each other and leaving the stock market indices mostly going nowhere on Friday.

To understand better how we arrive at this dysfunctional world of stock market indices, check out Patrick Boyle’s latest video. His dry rumor helps. His example of Sun Microsystem from 1990s hits home. Back then I have to use their computers to do more advanced research.

Another bout of bull vs bear here.

First a bear who believes that there is easily a new high coming before a 50% crash. Since I do not agree with most of the technical analysis out there so it is not my view on what may unfold in the future.

Next is a bull who thinks new highs coming.

Notice that both bulls and bears are actually agreeing that a new high is coming … the bears are actually bulls in disguise.

I will repeat this again – the financial system worldwide is a fuckery of numbers at this point that completely behave like an American football game. Knowing who is in control of the tape at the moment will tell you where the particular market is heading. Few people understand this.

Such a dynamic system (or better called a chaos system) is very unstable. Anytime a critical event happens, the whole system will collapse.

One such concerning event is the flooding in China. It exposes how fragile it is with the modern technologies people all praising as the future. Cell phones, electric cars, etc. all render useless. The disaster hitting China is also the near future of US and the western countries as Earth changes continue to reshape the world. The financial impact of the flood in the world will be felt very soon. So embrace for the impact while you can.

I picked the story because it is posted by Reuters so not at risk of being removed suddenly.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update July 29, 2023


FOMC did another rate hike this week and immediate reactions to that was absolutely nothing burger. What happened the day after got even more interesting as S&P rushed to a new year high and collapsed straight back down. Some said the selloff was due to Bank of Japan’s failure in containing their government bond problems. Some said it is all okay and that the stock market will go straight up from here.

Same old theme continues – as long as there is no external shocks to this very fragile system, it will keep on grinding higher. Those who try to short the overall market over the past few months are the ones who pushed the market higher. They are the ones who need better education in understanding how financial market works – it is all a f*ckery of American football.

Here is an interesting discussion on China’s near term future. All the premises discussed in the video have not taken into account of some basic risk factors that I always emphasis on. For example, if there is a 1% chance of the Three Gorges Dam to collapse any year from now, what is the proper evaluation of Chinese stock market? The answer is at most 50% of the current level.

On the other hand, there are talks of the financial system will be destabilized thanks to central bankers not doing their jobs. Chicken Little’s sky is falling mentality is also not helping if you are an average investor that needs to navigate this tough environment. I do not agree with Tucker’s take mainly because the real problem is not what the Fed is going to do, but what a completely messed up US government will do to the world.

Anyone who pay attention to what Biden has done lately knows that since the US debt ceiling is removed, he has used his executive power to spend like a trillion dollar already. It is something no central bank can do to counter the effect. So welcome to the hyperinflation world.

Here is a video from a “conspiracy theory spreader” on NASA lying about climate science. If you believe what he said is true, or as a minimum, that the environment changes are real and accelerating, the future of the global financial system is already set in stone. I like to give NASA idiots who author these lies credit though because they are trying to do their jobs to lie to the public where things really matters.

By the way, it is now proven scientifically, the planetary alignments of our solar system indeed predict earthquakes and volcano eruptions. If you still think that these alignments do nothing to Earth, you need to seriously update yourself if you consider yourself someone who “believe in science”.

Another busy weekend for me. Have a great weekend all!