TLC Weekly Update November 9, 2024

Another new all-time-high for SPX with 6000 tagged. All the averaged historical pattern for election year failed this year as there is no real increase in volatility going into the election and then right after, the bulls unleashed 200% all-in. We can all tell by common sense that it is not normal. But how can this happen?

Here is one possible answer that tells you we were that close to a global financial breakdown. If this observation is correct, central banks of the West are now on 7/24 watch to Band-Aid the financial system, until they can’t. And that implies serious liquidity will be pumped into the system, leading to hyperinflation of all the risk assets.

For those of you who are no longer young and would like to finally do something to stay fit, here is an inspirational video of someone who shows us serious exercise is not something out of reach. My take from this is that if you make exercises a consistent part of your life, you can get away with eating a lot …

Many people are making predictions that after Trump’s victory, we will soon face a major financial crisis. Well, that’s not fair because whoever won will face the same damn consequence of crazy money printing. Here is a balanced look at the situation.

Back to work.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update November 2, 2024

US stock market took a breather last week and the hidden bears all came out saying the sky is falling. Well, no serious damage to the up trend on daily yet. And even a 20% correction is nothing relative to the gains made so far this year. Only those who chase the move back in October are now trapped, if, they use a lot of leverage.

I like this video a lot because rarely we see this kind of frank discussion with a working exorcist. People who are allergic to religion can skip this. Those who are curious, prepare to take a deep dive.

This video from a year ago looked at a research that finds men are not good at identifying potential cheating partners, while women are, by just looking at the face. I will let you ponder why that’s the case.

Doomberg has been very active lately on quite a number of podcast, etc. Here is one of them. As always, I do not necessary agree with what people say but listening to others’ analysis can help.

I am extremely busy still given multiple projects I am working on are reaching important milestones. Hopefully by mid November I will have better clarity on what to do going into 2025. Can’t believe we are in the last two months of the year already.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update October 26, 2024

Another week of going nowhere near the all-time-high for both SPX and NDX. This time thanks to TSLA and NVDA doing so well. All large firms have upgraded their year end targets for the indices. So is it clean sail to another 10% higher or should we worry about a market crash that never comes?

As I explained many times, after covid crash all central banks and their governments in the world seized the opportunity to go “all-in” with printing for their friends and families. So there is no way to go back to “reasonable” fiscal and monetary policies. In other words, we are at the end stage of the current financial system. The game play for this environment is very different from, say, the “normal” environment back in the 1980-2000, and definitely not the same as 2000-2018.

Here is a good take on what’s next for the stock markets in the coming months.

Many astrologers predicted the world will be very different starting October. Yet, many people do not feel any different. So are they just exaggerated the expected impact of these greater cycles, or, is it just a matter of time that will hit us all?

What I know is that such long term cycle effects do not impact everyone at the same time. Hence it is a new wave of changes coming and then as the collective effects become detectable, they will be in full force already.

So here is yet another video on what may happen in 2025.

From my point of view as a trading professional, all the signs are there that major disruptions in geopolitical order, energy transportations and global population decline are all going to affect us all in coming years. The first one could be US election mess that is going to happen very soon.

But is it the prophetic “end of times” era landing upon us? I don’t know. For that we have to consider what these gurus have to say.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update October 19, 2024

Yet another all time high with S&P500 this week while Nasdaq 100 lacking behind. The stock market looks unstoppable while the FURUs out there having two extremely opposite opinions on what will happen in the coming months. We are just 2-3 weeks until US election. Historically the US stock market are more likely to pullback until the election result is in. We will see if this year the same pattern recurs.

And we also have the potential drama of election results being challenged similar to what happened back in year 2020. At this point if you still believe year 2020 election results was not manipulated, you have a mental issue. The question is how long does it takes this time to decide who is the winner.

My bet is that it will take, literally, forever. Why? All US mainstream media are paddling that Harris is actually gaining ground and is like a 50-50 bet at this point against Trump. Musk pointed out German MSMs even calling Harris is at 70% chance of winning at this point. However, third party polls and betting sites all tell a different story with Trump’s lead widening. So whatever the outcome of the election, there will be people not believing in the results, even if the election is not rigged.

Here is an interesting video of Doomberg talking about the upcoming disruption of US economy. What is explained in the video is very simple to understand. Yet, the whole world seems to be so disconnected to reality …

Lately, there are so many ads on all kinds of money making schemes from trading options to all kinds of hustles, it reminds me of Tom Vu. Here is a funny recount of his work from 1990s.

Time for something funny for a relaxed weekend.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update October 12, 2024

Another new high for S&P500 this week with AAII sentiment reaching new low for bearish sentiment. Large banks all upgrade their forecasts with higher level for both SPX and NDX. Yet, perma bears are warning that a crash is coming. Who to trust?

Here is a take of the current market situation by a veteran trader. One thing great about Jason Shapiro is that he is a traditional pro who look at the markets as a whole and adapt to the environment.

A great clip of Kelly McGonigal on why doing 15-20 minutes exercise every morning is essential to start your day. Enjoy!

A discussion on upcoming energy play by Doomberg. I agree that given winter is coming and that Europe is now pretty much all messed up by Ukraine for its refusal to transmit natural gas to other countries from Russia. A crisis is definitely in the making.

This weekend marks the end of Pluto in Capricorn era as Pluto turned direct on Friday and is marching towards Aquarius. By November 19, Pluto will stay in Aquarius for good. Be ready for the subtle changes worldwide. The post picture is a hint on what to expect – whatever you sowed since 2008, be ready to face the consequences now.

As usual, am going back to work now. Good trading and Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update October 5, 2024

Another week of surprise in the stock market with strong NFP leading to another attempt to push for all time high. Isn’t it amazing even though FURUs believe that a strong number would tank the market?

Remember the stock market is not a random machine. Things that matters in the stock market are really controlled by a small group of people.

A new magic number to watch out for is 9-9-9. I can’t disclose much more due to a promise.

This October is supposed to be very important astrologically because of Pluto finally finishing its retrograde motion by the 11th near Capricorn 29 degree and will then resume the normal path to exit Capricorn and enter Aquarius for good by early November. Once that is done, Pluto will stay in Aquarius for about 20 years.

Many astrologers on YouTube have long videos discussing the impact. Here is one talking about what to expect in 2025. Many people, especially those who have done a lot of bad things since 2008 when Pluto enters Capricorn, may face karmatic consequences. Last time the world saw this shift is back in 17th century when many countries worldwide burnt to the ground due to civil wars and revolutions.

Even normal technical analysts are picking up signals that the current up trend in the stock market is unsustainable.

Bears have to keep in mind that those who control the world learn from past market corrections and always finding new ways to mess it up even further. Current market bubble is the direct results of Fed and its peers’ interventions. That’s why all these correlations long term funds are using no longer work.

I received quite a number of requests on my view of the recent mega rally in China. I don’t think I am the right person to discuss about this because I do not follow the Chinese stock markets. What I gathered from the news and the price actions is that it is clearly the same kind of government manipulations used by the Fed to squeeze the shorts. China just took one step further to make sure the short must take a huge loss. Given the new policy on all existing mortgages, we can countdown to nationalization of their banks in no time. All in the name of greater good for the people, but is it?

Not fear mongering, but the reality of WW3 is very real now. It you are religious and forget to pray for a long time, you should start doing it. For those who are not religious, you may as well look at your bucket list.

Back to work.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update September 28, 2024

Another record high week for S&P500 while Nasdaq 100 doing its best to get closer to its all-time-high above. Impressive work by the bulls indeed.

But but but but … yen carry unwind is threatening to happen again. Well, Fed will do whatever it takes to ensure our financial system can survive enough time until all their masters, friends and family are ready for the eventual happening of the crisis.

So what to expect in coming months?

Here is an ultimate bull, Raoul Pal, talking about his view of the financial markets. He made a number of valid arguments and that if he is correct, it will be a very different world in 6 years.

On the other hand, we have those who believe a major shock to the markets is imminent.

So what do I believe, is far simpler – Florida is a great example of what I believe is happening to Earth. The weather changes caused by our solar system, especially the Sun, instead of the idiotic stupid man-made b.s., will give us a world very difficult to deal with in coming years. It will only get worse. That impact is never taken into account by these financial gurus …

Now, when bulls and bears are fighting and that we do not know who to believe, let’s add astrology into the mix, in hope of finding some clues.

Remember our world is really shaped by events. So as long as these incoming events throwing a curve ball to us, the world will change direction and everyone on Earth will be affected.

This weekend I have triple workload than my regular schedule after marathon meetings with several firms led to the need to provide customized reporting of our algos. Back to work now.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update September 21, 2024

New all-time-high S&P500 weekly close is now in place. Everyone who thought that the yen carry trade unwind would destroy the financial markets are now scratching their heads while losing tons of money betting on it.

So is it now clean sail to higher prices? I don’t think so.

Here is a funny prediction about the upcoming US president election using astrology. If he is correct, this will be a very bizarre sequence of events to unfold going all the way into inauguration.

A frank discussion of what to do when the current economic landscape is changing rapidly. One point that stands out is that we cannot just look at the expected down turn in the economy and react to that because what the policy makers will do in response to that matters even more.

Yuval Noah Harari is coming out with a new book hence his road show of interviews popping up everywhere. Here is one of them with him talking about the theme of his new book. Since we all know he is a hitman working for the dark side, you can figure out the purpose of this book is to promote their agenda.

My team is working overtime to get more algos ready for last quarter this year. So back to work for me.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update September 14, 2024

Second time in a row the world famous PPT stepped in to save the US stock market when Japanese yen breaking to new highs against US dollar. You may heard that it was NVidia CEO’s quip that sparked the rally. Don’t be fooled.

Howard Marks made a series of short videos discussing several basic concepts that is fundamental to make sound investment decisions. This one is my favorite so far.

Patrick Boyle came up with another funny video poking on the bullshit ventures and apps we see popping up everywhere.

I like the explanation from this video on why the baby boomer generation is the biggest rise in birth rate worldwide. One thing I disagree with the video is BoA’s claim of a new baby boom is coming because we already see a total bust of all birth rates around the world since 2023.

This is rollover week for index futures so another busy weekend for me.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update September 7, 2024

First week of September turns into a real shocker for the US stock markets according to FURUs and whatever Elliott Wave “seers”. Well, as I said it does not matter all these fancy analysis pointing to higher prices a week ago. What really matters are the risk factors outside of the bubble of financial world.

Here is an interesting discussion on all kinds of conspiracies that can affect our lives. One thing to keep in mind is that even what the guest said are all true, we still have to survive today first …

Finally, someone just said it out loud what really caused the 2008 financial crisis – an evil person who abused his power and yet we see no punishment to him and his associates.

If there is one thing that keeps me up at night, it would be what Eric Weinstein said in this video. However, I am also hopeful that even if the world falling into chaos is inevitable, humankind will likely adapt and survive.

Lots of work for me this weekend so can’t even take a break today even though it is so nice outside.

Have a great weekend all!