TLC Weekly Update September 24, 2021

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Canada has turn colder since the Mid-Autumn Festival. Some even say that this year we may encounter extreme coldness this winter. Hopefully it will be just another year with normal winter. It is hard to deal with extreme coldness here …

A lot of talks about “gamma squeeze” over the past few months. I was asked about it several times too. If you do not understand what it is, check out this short article. Someone already wrote a good piece explaining the concept, why write it myself?

We can’t stop talking about covid these days and here is a nice clip on how people are so out of touch with reality. I am not sure if this clip will be removed for spreading misinformation. Check it out and you may be surprised what was said in the clip.

Another great interview by Tom Bilyeu with Dr. Huberman. His work is extremely useful for anyone who wants to achieve better results in life. For many people they are hopelessly addicted to emotions that are harmful to them. The ability to control and manage your emotions is a powerful tool to improve one’s life. I like Tom’s way to kick himself into sleep. Got to give it a try.

Crazy work schedule still dominate my life. Lots of progress on research and development front is making it all worth it. I finally see light at the end of the tunnel and my plan will work out eventually even though it is taking more time than originally planned. But what happen according to our plans lately everywhere?

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update September 17, 2021

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Today is quarterly expiration for index options, index futures and index future options. More and more retail traders are engaging in option trading activities. That in turn forced the market makers to create larger and larger hedged positions that has to be unwind by option expiration. The exaggerated price swings are expected. There is really no need for the MSM trying so hard to explain everything …

ZH has an interesting article about covid situation in Sweden. Not that I am a conspiracy theorist but how can we not thinking about this whole mandatory vaccination and vaccine passport mess worldwide being a evil plan or some sort?

Here is an educational video about sex that feels so awkward due to the fear of offending some people. Science is now being robbed of its function and identity in this messed up world …

For those of you who find it hard to engage in difficult conversations, this video from Tim Ferriss is a nice framework to learn from.

I have been very busy all week and I told my friends that I wish there are 28 hours a day. So many things I am trying to get done yet something always comes up that has to be taken care of first. Let’s see if this troubling trend will end next week.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update September 10, 2021

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Rollover week for index futures this week. So far this week volatility picked up a bit but every attempt to move lower are forced back up fiercely. All overnight selloffs are erased so that normal people can’t tell that they ever happened as it does not show in their portfolio. Now that today the markets finally have a weak weekly close, what do you think Powell will do this weekend?

CGP Grey has done another crazy project again. Enjoy the fruit of his work here. This is how research on historical records really looks like.

I found this series of videos the best summary of Charles Mungers life long wisdom. No matter you invest or not, his “techniques” for handling life and everything else is the best self-help advices you can get. It can be easy to just listen to the series and forget about it right after. So I recommend watch it, reflect on each individual mental model and learn to incorporate that into your own decision making process.

Here is a less technical video about virus which addresses a fundamental concept, are they alive? When we discuss about the covid situation, everyone has an opinion but normal people most likely have a completely wrong mental picture about virus. In fact there is no unified understanding of what they are at all because we still know very little about them. Science is still very lacking on this frontier …

Thus I can’t understand why talking about common sense like personal hygiene, exercise, healthy diet and exposure to sun (or direct Vitamin D intake) as first line of defense against covid are banned on YouTube and various mainstream media. I have received many links from others quoting “factcheck dot org” on related materials that they are all “false”. Unluckily, everything I read so far from that site are written in evasive language to misguide people.

Who is going to fact check the fact checker, eh?

As usual, I will focus on my work and hopefully getting more things done. When the world has fallen into chaos, shutout the noises and keep oneself busy really help.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update September 3, 2021

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Last month of the third quarter just started. Another week of all-time-high price actions. Some gurus even believe that the stock market will continue to melt up just like Germany back in 1919 to 1933. If so, I guess we will see S&P500 going a lot higher from here.

For those of you who find meditation not your cup of tea, there are other ways to achieve the same. From my family’s tradition Chinese medicine teaching, we have all these breathing techniques that claim to achieve wonderful results. And now science confirms that the claims are true.

I still find the scientific explanation making things too complicated though. Common sense – use it or lose it.

A video about the rarely mentioned issue with interference on our computers from outer space. I guess blaming the stars for my computer woes has some merit after all. The damn Mercury retrograde is coming back to haunt us from September 27 to October 17. Prepare for machine malfunctions by then.

Talking about computer trouble, one of my trusted Surface Pro 6 got BSOD and it looks like its hard drive died after 2 years of everyday use. I am glad that I bought the full extended warranty on the machine. 3 days after I reported this to Microsoft, the replacement is already at my door. Although I don’t like Microsoft much, this superior customer service is definitely worth mentioning here.

A very good follow-up on the Great Barrington Declaration by Unherd. During this covid crisis, we hear nothing from governments worldwide doing anything resemble common sense. The declaration made by these brave medical professionals was not only ignored but also led to hardship on them for speaking out. This is the ultimate sign that the so-called democracy based systems around the world is failing …

My busy schedule continues to use up all my time. Progress is made but not as quickly as I hope for. That’s the natural of research and development – it takes time to get results.

Have a great long weekend everyone!

TLC Weekly Update August 27, 2021

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Jackson-Hole Fed meeting started with Powell’s speech sending the stock markets printing yet another new all-time-high today. The so-called uncertainty about these Fed governors whether they would do anything to ruin the gravy train is obviously an outright lie. Why would they do that and be blamed for causing market crash or whatever economic disaster?

If you still believe that people in power would do the right thing or having any form of moral standard, you need to grow up.

I watched this video from Vice about the CIA’s involvement in drug dealing back in the 1980s. Very interesting video that shows why absolute power corrupts absolutely. Notice how major media always cover up and distort everything. Whatever and whoever they go against, are often the right side of the moral compass. Hence it is important to stop reading anything written in these media to keep your mind from contamination.

Here is an old video about the ancient computers predicting the future. Seriously, it is just a simple dynamic system that updates its equations one year at a time. It is nothing more than a toy. But it made it to the news back then almost 50 years ago and again back in 2018.  It shows how human loves to live by predictions of the future.

On a funny note, Patrick Boyle made a one minute video on Robinhood. Hope you get a laugh from it.

I am working hard to complete our next set of goals by this quarter end. We’ve started investigating various markets to see which ones are better fit with our trading objectives. So much work and so little time as always. I am not sure if I bought a lemon computer but the continuous high CPU load on that computer doing optimization and related tasks led to several BSOD already. May have to replace the computer soon.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update August 20, 2021

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Another week of market weaknesses saved by magic rally on Friday. Many are wondering who are buying these dips. Well, there are two main groups of people who can’t wait. First, it is the retail traders and investors who are piling everything they have into this easy money game. Second, it is the hedge funds and traders who have to answer to their investors and bosses. Lack of a reason that can put fear into the longer term investors, a technical correction may only induce a 10 to 20 percent damage to the US stock market.

I watched this video on politicians using their positions to make money in the financial markets. It is a good introduction to the subject. What’s missing is the reporting of the net worth of all these politicians before they became elected and where they stand now comparing to someone who worked in the private sector with comparable salary and compensation. If you are interested, look it up yourself. You will be astounded.

Thorium Molten Salt Reactor is a much safer form of nuclear power plant. It is safe than any Tesla moving around the world, as a comparison. However, countries like Japan and United States chose to build the much more dangerous versions for the sake of military potential. Thus, I am very surprised that China would go for this safe route.

Mr. El-Erian, former CEO of PIMCO, commented about the current global economic environment. His take on interest rate carries weight. Indeed, big guns in the markets would not worry until Powell makes up his God damn mind.

Lately I see a trend emerging from the governments worldwide pitting their own citizens against each other by blaming their failures in handling the covid crisis on those who are not vaccinated. This type of strategies I thought was only employed by the dictators and crazy regimes. Of course, many people who does not know better often fall into this kind of traps. Remember, it is the governments worldwide that failed to focus on finding an existing drugs to repurpose for frontline treatment that leads to the mess now. Leaky vaccines are not the answer as admitted now by those who pushed the agenda for so long.

It is now proven, that there are at least 30 existing drugs, both safe and cheap, are useful for the fight against covid. If the governments did not waste time and put resources into this area, we would have identified them in the first 3 months of the pandemic. Even now, these governments still block the use of these drugs because they can’t admit to being wrong, or that they are in bed with the vaccine makers, I really don’t know. The information is out there, all you need to do is look. And by the way, do not use those so-called fact checking sites. They are owned by the big pharma too. I am not joking.

This weekend I will be doing chores again, to take a break from the regular research and development work. It is hard to stay productive and creative when one is looking at the same thing everyday. Maybe enjoy some sunshine while summer is here in Canada is exactly what I need.

Have a great weekend all!

A Non-Conventional Approach to Investing by Following the Long Term Cycles of CEOs and Hedge Fund Managers

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The financial industry is full of idiotic ideas on how to pick the right stocks using all kinds of so-called scientific approaches like fundamental analysis and technical analysis. Lately, they even added physicists and other hard science PhDs to find new ways to profit from the markets. Based on my 30+ years of trading experience, however, none of these stuff works consistently. They don’t work well because markets really move due to aggregated human beliefs, not because of some voodoo earning multiples that someone from the past telling you that 8 is normal and 20 is too high.

So what has Wall Street missed in finding a way to beat the markets?

Well, they failed to utilize the most esoteric analysis tool of all – astrology.

I am not talking about Western astrology here. I am talking about classic Chinese astrology that has a full fledge system in determining a person’s luck cycles with money, fame and career. Instead of looking at a company’s birth chart like many Western astrologers assumed to be of any significance, why not look at the person who has most to lose on the rise and fall of a company’s stock price?

Yep, I just said it. All you need to do to see if a stock is going higher is to find a company founder or just anyone whose wealth is more than 50% tied to a stock. If that person is entering a lucky cycle with money and wealth, the stock price would go higher, if this postulate really works.

We can even extend this concept to look at the famous hedge fund managers to see if they are in their lucky cycle or not. If they are lucky, lean on their bets. If they are unlucky, bet against them, or at least be very careful if you agree with them.

So I finally say it out loud publicly that astrology may have useful applications after all, aside from being a party trick or entertainment among friends.

If this approach really works, the implication is far more interesting than just discovering yet another market timing tool. Think deeply on how Western culture likes to worship all these big company founders and famous market gurus. Public regards whatever these people say about their philosophy in running businesses and in investing as some kind of wisdom to learn from. But in reality, if my conjecture is correct, they were probably in their lucky cycle that manifested into fame and fortune. Once their luck is gone, whatever they say no longer has that magic quality …

This also creates another issue often misused by casual astrologers. Many people who believe in astrology often go one step too far assuming they can find all the reasons of success from the exact birth time of a famous person. That is so wrong. For even the most famous billionaire of our time, at the moment, Bill Gates, has other people who were born at the same time he was, in the same city and did not fare as well as Mr. Gates does financially.

In short, we maybe able to use astrology to identify important decision time and the luck cycles but the rest is all about personal choices and the environment influence. Accept the limitation of astrology will help one use it correct.

Here comes the challenge: who should I choose to experiment with and see if the Chinese astrology system really works?

Tell me who you want to be studied first.

I will work out the specifics and post it here.

Let the experiment begins!

TLC Weekly Update August 13, 2021

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Today is Friday the 13th. Another record setting day for the stock markets worldwide. According to multiple sources, retail players are now going all-in. If that is really the case, then this rally will last at least until majority of these retail investors used up all their bullets first. I wonder when that will be.

Read a report of robbery … and it makes me wonder how low USA has sunk. I am not sure if going to USA will be a good idea for any tourist in the future.

I am thinking and preparing my trading firm’s disaster strategies. I have learnt more about the Carrington Event and it is enough to keep me waking up at night. Seriously, even NASA can only warn us just hours before the impact of these solar coronal mass ejections on Earth. Unlike more than hundred years ago, our cities and pretty much everything depends on the functioning of our electricity grids and, well, the internet. I wonder how prepared we are against this type of disaster.

The talk of the Great Resignation has been popping up everywhere. It is a phenomenon that we should not ignore. The crazy covid responses worldwide by the governments produced this movement, intentional or not doesn’t matter. What matters is that going forward the societies as we know will change drastically due to this change in attitude among many people.

And if you have the time, enjoy this lecture about a mystery period in human history. It was done back in 2016. And I think it is so relevant today that we should be aware of the possibility that, unlike what those New Age dreamers saying everyone is going into spiritual enlightenment now, the coming decades could be the world burning down to ashes with majority of human going insane first.

For those of you interested in stargazing, a spectacular light show is happening these few days. If you get the chance to observe the sky in a rural area with less artificial light, you will love what you see.

This weekend I have tons of chores piled up that has to be taken care of. It happens when I am so focus on my research work from time to time. Time to clean the clutter!

If you have email me over the past few weeks and I haven’t responded yet, just send it to me again.

Wish you all a great weekend!

TLC Weekly Update August 6, 2021

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Another week of all-time-high wild actions by the stock market. This energizer bunny just keeps going and going. Fun to watch but not easy to navigate if you are an active trader. Howard Marks summarizes this nicely in this interview.

I find this video very interesting because of its implications in improving the electricity grid on large scale basis. The hype on Musk’s work on batteries for home use is really impractical compare to this low cost solution. Well, I am bias on anything Musk does right now but that is a separate topic …

Someone sent me this video on cutting up ATM machines as if it is treasure hunting. I never imagine that people would simply leave those money in the ATM machines. Fun to watch!

The world is living in fear again lately due to the surge in cases of covid across the globe. I tried to avoid talking about this topic for a long time because I do not agree to the many propaganda promoted by the mainstream media and various dumb politicians. For example, why the focus of finding treatment for covid using existing drugs not of highest priority for almost two damn years? If it were made the highest priority, I am 100% sure than within 3 months of the spread of the pandemic we would already have an army of medications to deal with the crisis and that countless number of people would be saved, not almost two years later.

The dumbness (or scientific ignorance) of the politicians, giving them the benefit of doubt that it is not their greed and self interest, tells the world that we have to stop electing these people to manage our societies. As long as these clowns are there, the tragedy we are going through now will repeat. Sadly, I think this will not happen anytime soon.

It looks to me that we are at the eye of a storm with financial markets, covid crisis and geopolitical tensions all standing at this delicate balance at the moment. Any one of them going south, all the rest will be in total chaos again.

Buckle up!

TLC Weekly Update July 30, 2021

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Can’t believe it is already the end of July. Time flies when you just work until you are so tired and crash in bed day after day.

An interesting video explaining why first class is disappearing. Airline business is indeed a tough one. I wonder how long it will take for the industry to recover from covid.

A friend sent me this video about people dumb enough to go online shopping for hitman. Are people really losing their common sense these days?

After watching this video, I want to get one of these beautiful chess sets too. Maybe I will buy myself that this Christmas …

Some of you asked why I have time to watch all these videos and read all kinds of articles while complaining about not enough time to work on my projects. Well it is quite simple to answer – I accomplish all that during my lunch and dinner. And I only eat two times a day.

This will be a Canadian long weekend. My schedule wouldn’t change though – research and development is a forever grind that takes someone who enjoy the process.

Have a nice weekend all!