TLC Weekly Update April 5, 2025

What a week for the US stock market – no one believes Trump’s tariff plan has such impact on the financial markets until it was announced. The shock sent the stock market lower by around 10% going into Friday. And dumb hedge funds are piling onto shorts at extreme level going into the close.

I said dumb hedge funds because they are dumb – they are over leveraged at 150% long right at the top and now after the stock market dropped like 15% from the top they went all-in going short? That’s a great indicator of a great market bottom is coming very quickly to make sure these funds are toasted again.

For those of you who hold onto old thinking of the financial markets with classic useless shit like Elliott Wave, etc. watch this video by Cem Karsan. The financial markets are changing and how the markets behave on anything beyond one day is no longer the same. Hence all these b.s. warning of another black Monday is coming, whatsoever, is not the reality we are dealing with these days.

This normal correction of the stock market is just business as usual – we always have 8% to 15% market correction almost every year ever since we have that Dow Industrial Average Index. The funny thing though, is that for some reason, similar to the very predictable non-farm payroll bias, that people choose to not remembering these market patterns and instead letting their emotions flying high with every market up and downs …

On the other hand, a lot of people are talking trash about the tariffs imposed by Trump. None of these people are qualified to even talk about tariffs in the first place, and especially those so called economists who have been wrong on everything all the time. What really matters is the net effect of the tariffs in a very connected world – check out this news update and you will see the implications of so called made in America “only” is next to impossible. In other words, we should see major revision to the tariffs as soon as this weekend.

This week we have trading server updates so that will keep me busy all weekend.

Have a great weekend all!

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