Author: Lawrence Chan

A brutal week for the stock market ended with quite a few big techs losing more than 20% from their all-time-high. The indices fair better because of the weighting factor – as these big techs drop, their weighting in the indices also drop so we do not see the full impact at all if you do not pay attention to the individual stocks.

So what’s next? I already explained in the past that US election year has a very strong bias to go lower from July onward until the election is over. That’s 3 more months to go. Maybe we get an early bottom if the indices have dropped significantly lower such that fundamental players step in. We will see soon enough.

Here is a video of Gundlach’s reactions to FOMC announcement on Wednesday. He believes that the Fed will cut rate and that for sure in a year, Fed will cut 150 bps based on his models.

My take, exactly as I predicted there is no rate cut for this year, at least in the first half of 2024, while all these experts calling for 5 to 6 rate cuts. Why do I know? Because inflation at more than 3% is not a linear figure – it compounded over a 4 year period already so in order to bring inflation back to norm it has to be a negative figure for a prolong period of time before the world returns to a level that is reasonable relative to people’s income level.

BTW, every single time the Fed started to cut rate, a crash landing in economy happened that took down the stock markets by a minimum of 20% from the date that started the rate cut cycle. So do you really want to see a rate cut now?

My position stays the same – it is more likely the Fed will keep the rate at the current level and no rate cut, forever, or, until after a major crisis hits. And I have a good explanation on why the Fed is trapped. Check out this video on the extreme QE done by the US government itself that render interest rate policy useless.

You really think Powell does not know that? If he cuts rate due to political pressure, inflation will jump to unimaginable level crushing everything … 

So what to do in a world like this … I guess a dose of astrology outlook is in order.

For me, back to work as usual.

Have a great weekend all!

The first significant decline in the stock market since the bottom from last year has many people guessing whether this is a buying opportunity or the start of something more serious.

I still do not understand why people can’t even remember simple structural biases after more than 100 years of the existence of the US stock market. This is election year with a fake Democrat President – selling into election day from late July is one of the most consistent biases over all these years. As usual, humans choose to ignore facts laying right before their eyes.

Here is a clip of Jordan Peterson talking with Elon Musk about the future of USA. I don’t agree with Musk that US is still a great country. The chaos in many large cities there are already out of control. There is no way to stop this slippery slope from sending US into total chaos in coming years. This is why those who are wealthy like Ray Dalio chose to leave US.

Here is an interesting video about these AI bots predicting that China will invade Taiwan (this year). As I explained many times here, the madness in the financial markets is the result of retails entering the space at this final stage of the game. One sign of such madness is that all risk factors outside of the financial markets are ignored. What that implies is that a serious correction in the stock market is likely.

I find this documentary fascinating – it makes perfect sense how much money the Vatican has due to its longevity that no country in modern times can be compared with. What I wonder is that what else Vatican has done that the world has no idea of?

Back to work on our projects … busy week ahead.

Have a great weekend all!

Quarterly expirations of the index futures, options on stocks and indices, etc. this Friday did not produce a bang that many people called for. In fact, the day did almost nothing in terms of intraday volatility. This is all because of the opposite price actions of NVidia and Amazon.

Now that the second quarter of 2024 is almost over, the focus of the financial world will turn to the upcoming all important US election. Since so much drama is happening with the leading candidates, it is hard to tell what twists and turns may come up in coming few months.

This is a good video explaining what grounding is and its benefits. I have been doing grounding for decades following the traditional Chinese protocol like standing outdoors barefoot, etc. But the amount of time we can do that is very limited. Ever since I found these grounding mats, they are definitely one of my best investments for my health.

I love how bulls rationalize their views of the stock markets like this one. His analysis is all bullshit just like any economists out there. The only reason the S&P500 rallied so much is all about that 7 stocks. And since that is not the core argument of his analysis, his understanding of the financial markets is questionable.

Another great video from Patrick Boyle discussing the hot topic of immigration around the world.

My team is all excited with all the new trading models we have completed this quarter. The difficult part of testing them with live trading starts now before serious money is committed to trading them.

So no time to enjoy this summer – more work over the weekends …

Have a great weekend all!

Another non-farm payroll week finished and again successfully pushed higher into Thursday / Friday as usual. What happen after that will be very interesting because we have a late option expiration this quarter end by 21st. So the fight to contain the upside already started. My guess is that option market makers will want to bring SPX back down a bit.

But how they are going to make that happen can be a big surprise. Maybe it also depends on Nancy Pelosi. It was reported that she was long NVidia using options. Given her 100% winning track record, the moment she is out of her position I am sure the stock will have a large correction right after.

Many Canadians are happy to hear the interest rate cut announcement by Bank of Canada. However, the unintended consequence can be very damaging to the country. Here is a short video explaining why it is not a good idea.

And that leads to the question of what the Fed will do. Peter Grosskopf discussed with David Lin on the outlook.

Lately I am experimenting with chia seeds as a way to control my weight and then this video popped up on my youtube top page. How do they figure this out …

My schedule is now back to normal but I have tons of work piled up. So turbo catch up mode it is.

Have a great weekend all!

A very interesting week of price actions for which the stock market trying to break out of the tight range it has been stuck in for weeks. A push to the upper boundary ended up with a sharp drop. Yet the lower boundary successfully defended itself last minute on Friday. So the fight continues until one side gives up.

Michael Gayed posted this short video on what he thinks will happen to the global financial system. If his thesis is correct, the talk by Ms. Baradaran that I posted last week becomes very important. The moment the collusion of these central banks failed to keep Japan from doing something for itself, investors worldwide will face a nightmare they will not be able to wake up from.

The biggest news this week was the Trump verdict. This short video simply summarized what I often say over the years.

This week I was helping my friend with a court case all week. I will not discuss the details here but what I observed is that lately, there are many evil people who have done countless bad deeds in their lives all facing extreme adversity against them, stripping away everything they have. Is this really a sign that we are facing the end time era for which there is no more reincarnation, hence payback happening to these people quickly before they die?

This video on Pluto in Aquarius talks about the same subject but on a bigger scale of what can happen to various countries.

I need to catch up with my work all weekend.

Have a great weekend all!