Author: Lawrence Chan

Another week of bull bear fight in the stock market resulting in another successful defense of weekly support. Bears are very frustrated and drawing all kinds of lines projecting from a steep pullback to an outright crash. Bulls are laughing to the bank and poke fun at the bears.

So classic – holiday mode trading always in favor of a bullish up grind.

One funny news in the chess world that’s worth checking out is that Hikaru Nakamura is being accused of cheating by former world chess champion Vladimir Kramnik. The whole thing is summarized by this video and the ongoing development of the situation is getting to surreal level. In short, some people just can’t grasp the basics of statistics and refuse to accept the fact that some events that are deemed near impossible to happen are actually common events.

For example, to win some kind of lottery at one out of 14 million chance by a single person is exactly that – near impossible. But we see lotteries are always won somewhere everyday. Would you call those winners cheating? No, of course. When there are so many people buying every single lottery game, it is bounded to happen very often.

Here is an argument against the idea of an imminent stock market crash from none other than Raoul Pal.

While there are tons of videos saying shit will hit the fan like this one.

I have been asked many times what I think will happen to the stock market – I think both sides are right! Hence the future hinges on the next 1-second event does not happen in coming 2 years then you get what Raoul Pal predicted. If any one-second event hits, the system collapse. We have all the necessary conditions in place for a potential “global reset” but that does not imply it will happen quickly.

Another busy weekend for me so better go back to work now.

Have a great weekend all!

Another week of climbing the wall of bad news is good news for the stock market. At this point the wounded bears who refused to accept the fact that the stock market is just a fu#ckery should really wake up to this reality. There is no need to have long term opinions about the market to make money from it. The key to come out ahead is always playing this game with good risk control.

To have a good laugh, here is a video talking to Robert Prechter on his ultra bearish view. Some of you know that I am not a fan of the Elliott Wave stuff because it is quite useless for active players. But then given his guru status, many loves hearing from him, especially those who need the comfort that their bearish view is “right”.

Here is an opposite view on the stock market from a newsletter guru. I find it funny that the background has several miniature Japanese swords with some other Asian themed items.

One thing that I find many people, including those “financial experts”, confused of, the causation relationship of the stock market indices and the general economic environment. The stock market indices are designed with specific rules to construct them from the component stocks. For example, the Nasdaq 100 index is made up of the top 100 stocks traded on Nasdaq, by their capitalization size. It has nothing to do with the economy. These companies can be completely unrelated to the everyday life of 99% of the world population.

So these indices can go up and down for whatever reasons. They are just part of the casino’s offerings to take money away from those dumb enough to play the game without knowing what they are getting into.

This video puts this concept together nicely in the context of geopolitics. Yep, we are f$#ked.

For my US readers, have a great Thanksgiving weekend!

For the rest of my readers, just enjoy this weekend and stay safe!

Third week of more gain for the stock market makes the bears angry. Well, can’t blame them. The 5-stages of grief take time to complete. In the mean time, the bulls are so excited that I see on youtube and X that many of them are bragging non-stop already. What’s the point to brag? In the not too long history of the stock market indices, having a 8-12% correction was the norm every year.

I find this video talking about the future of finance very interesting. The level of b.s. is off the chart. And David Lin was not able to ask any intelligent questions or getting any meaningful answers from the guest. This tells me a lot about this so-called “future” is highly questionable.

On the other hand, this video has a lot more useful information for everyone. Just the story of the guest jumping from being a successful lawyer to a successful entrepreneur is worth the time.

Lately I started to see a lot more pessimistic videos from those feng shui masters talking about a difficult future due to the “9th era” which is the last 20 years of a 180-year cycle. And that will start by early February 2024. I still recall a few years back many of these  so-called masters keep saying this coming “9th era” will be good fortune for owning real estates because this next era is represented by the fire element and in the Chinese astrology system fire element can create / assistance the earth element, blah blah blah … and now they all changed their views.

This is the reason why these esoteric knowledge are rarely useful in real life – it is way better to focus on one self, inward, to see what can be done to improve one’s life.

This speech from Jordan Peterson is way more useful to everyone.

I couldn’t do any writing yesterday due to all day hard labor working on getting our server room ready for doubling the capacity. Yes my team has a big plan for next year and we can doing everything we can to get things done not just on schedule but ahead of it. That’s focus on what can be done today so that one can better the potential outcomes in the future.

Have a great weekend all!

Another week of positive gain for the stock market. Bulls are now having their victory dance while Moody waited until after the stock markets closed to announce its downgrade of USA. Would that do anything to the US stock market by Monday? I have no idea.

Patrick Boyle’s latest video on Peace Dividend is a must watch for the current generations of investors and traders. As long as this new multipolar world order continues, there is no easy way out.

Patrick has another video on Ray Dalio – it is not really a surprise because all famous and “successful” people love to re-write their history in their own narratives. I do not agree everything said in the video, as usual, but it is not because I believe in what Dalio does at his firm makes sense. In fact, I don’t.

For those interested in astrology, I find this astrologer’s videos quite interesting with this particular one applicable to us all now.

I have a lot to take care of this weekend, better get back to work now.

Have a great weekend all!

Another Non-Farm Payroll week ended with a strong close thanks to very weak NFP reported. Bulls are cheering that they have won the war while many confused bears thought that they are being scammed. Well, it is just another NFP week that has a strong bullish bias no matter what the reported number is. Nothing changed – we are still in the most risky trading environment ever.

Here is a an interesting video about Bitcoin and what the guest believe will happen in the near future. As usual I do not necessarily agree with the videos I share here but it is important for an investor to understand how others think of the markets.

This video was recorded back on Nov 2. This guest is a bear who believe the stock market will crash hard eventually but that a rally higher first is more likely.

Personally I don’t know where the stock market is heading. In fact, it is clear to me that since 2010s the stock market indices have already completely decoupled from reality. Major stock market indices used to be a leading indicator of the economy by 3 to 6 months. This is no longer true any more. In fact, they do not react to the reality at all until forced to. Think of those bankrupt companies that their share prices traded from pennies to 1000 times higher and then went straight down to zero the very next day.

What do I mean by “being forced to”? The simplest example is that one day we suddenly have no electricity in large part of the world. It is not a far fetch event. It is very likely we will experience that within a year or two given how the world is pushing for WW3. And what would happen then? All EVs turn into trash overnight. All crypto currencies worth nothing. Physical money may work for a while but eventually we will fall back to bartering all the way if electricity, the backbone of modernization, is no longer available readily everywhere.

Here is a video trying to predict where are the risky places in case of WW3 breaks out. I do not agree with the video’s predictions at all but it is a nice place to start.

Enjoy your weekend all!

At the blink of an eye, another month is almost over. US stock markets ended lower for the week as expected and two more trading days to month end. Can the bulls defend their turf or that they have been day dreaming all along by ignoring the geopolitical risk completely? It is a problem faced by every turkey upon Thanksgiving …

If you are a causal observer of the AAII sentiment index and bought the narrative that it is a great contrarian indicator, you are an idiot. Sentiment like AAII is at best a trend following indicator. For example, when you have an up trend on monthly chart, the bearish sentiments near so-called extreme are then potential low risk entry for trend buy, and vice versa.

Right now, the US stock markets are in monthly down trend so until the bulls manage to recapture the key month support price levels, the bearish sentiments is just a confirmation of the down trend.

I feel great sadness that, the so-called Western countries including US, claiming higher moral ground against countries like Russia and China, continue to push for instability in Middle East that leads to the current escalation of war and genocide. Seeing what is happening makes me believe that in the near future, all these Western countries will soon be in total chaos themselves when their own citizens no longer believe the lies told by their politicians.

I have no video to share this week as all these analysis of the stock markets out there do not take into account of major disruptions of the world.

Instead let’s just watch a bunny enjoying her strawberry. Let’s hope we can survive this chaos.

Stay safe.

With so much uncertainty out there, S&P500 closed at the low of the week on Friday. That led to fierce debate on X among those gurus where the market will be heading next week. From what I see so far, bulls and bears are pretty much 50/50 split. This makes sense though because S&P is sitting at a key middle point here and until one side can dominate the tape, we really do not know which way it will go.

Tucker Carlson’s latest episode on X is a great summary of the f#@ked up world we are in. Those in power make up narratives that fit what they want and to benefit from the outcomes. Waking up from this is very hard for the younger generation because majority of them never really think deeply about the world as the education system has been modified to ensure they can’t think critically. I feel sad for humanity …

A video on Euclid’s Element from Veritasium documented how mathematicians inspired by the book discover things that Euclid could have never think of. Nice video to watch for geeks like me.

I know many of you worry about the near future due to the escalation of regional conflicts and wonder how that will affect the financial markets. Well, I have studied all the historical major conflicts on record and their respective outcomes during and after those conflicts. The conclusion is that there is no pattern at all. So there is nothing we can lean on using recent history as reference.

Given that being the case, if you don’t mind looking into alternative analysis like astrology, this video from Abhigya Anand should interest you.

I am kind of slow today due to serious stuffy nose problem. Whenever that happens, I know it is the autumn season is ending thanks to my allergy. Any how, so much work to get done I better keep pushing.

Have a great weekend all!

What a roller coaster ride this week for the stock market – leaning on the turnaround Friday last week, S&P pushed higher originally but then hammered back down on Friday. Of course, bulls see this as a little setback while the bears believe the sky is falling. I’ll say it is just another week similar to those with Friday being the 13th of the month.

Here is an interesting video from Patrick Boyle on Ireland. Learned something new from the video about the details of big techs using Ireland as a way to reduce their tax obligations.

Many of you know my take that EVs are not good for our future. And now we are seeing breakthrough in ammonia engines that bring the technology one big step closer to mass production.

Eurodollar University presented an alternative look at the current economy using what we know about the great depression period. The pointed raised is very important because given how broken the system is right now, there is no practical solution to fix it.

Today we have a solar eclipse. I have watched many videos on YouTube discussing the astrological implication of that on USA because it is mainly visible in the country. This particular solar eclipse is special because it has a stunning visual effect that, when the sun is fully covered, instead of the sky turning into total darkness, this one has a ring of light. If you are interested in what the astrologers say about this, just search online.

Have a great weekend all!

What a week for the stock market! First it started out flushing lower below previous week low. Then, a last moment turn around Friday saved the week from falling further. Bulls are cleansed out. Bears are cleansed out. Next week a new game begin.

Here is someone who is bullish on the short term outlook but still calling for a 50% crash.

A very interesting video from Hugh Hendry. He raised an important question – are these people holding high up positions in these largest financial institutions really having no clue of what they are doing?

As far as I can see, there are no real bears left in the stock market. Pros who shorted this weekly pullback were all doing it based on whatever technical tools they are using. Hence they get out the moment the market is no longer dropping. No one cares about geopolitical risk or the ongoing depopulation risk. Everyone in the game are now fully controlled by their fear and greed. This kind of environment is always one step away from a price shock that can lead to major disaster for the global financial system.

Here is a nice recap of how close we were from a global disaster that of course would lead to total financial meltdown. I will argue that we are very likely going to see such an event soon and this time we may be running out of luck.

This weekend is a long weekend for Canadians because our Thanksgiving holiday is one month earlier than the US one. So while my Canadian friends are celebrating or taking a break, I am working as usual.

Happy Thanksgiving my fellow Canadians!

Enjoy this weekend all!

Third quarter end this year now being the worst quarter end on record for the major indices. However, the bulls are so high right now that their all important support zone is saved. Many of them loaded up on this “pullback” target looking for at least a retest of the year high. Even more interesting, the so-called bears out there all covering their shorts at this same zone as they can’t see why the stock market would go much lower.

In other words, everyone is bullish now, unlike what the AAII sentiment suggested. Actions speak louder than opinions. What if something out of the the blue happens, like, Bank of Japan fails to defend their financial system? Anyone really paying attention to the global financial system stability at all?

Or, what makes it alright to let the US Federal government to shutdown when US is actually at war with every non-NATO nations in the world?

I find this great example on ChatGPT that shows how stupid it really is. Of course, AI enthusiasts will say that we can train it to solve these problems too. What they failed to see is that by Godel’s Theorem, this blindspot within an AI system will forever not be able to get the correct answer with just a little twist to the conditions. In short, as I pointed out, AI will always be the most useless and being harmful when you seriously need it to help you solve a real problem.

Here is an interesting video update from David Lin talking with Milton Berg on what will happen next in the stock markets. Berg called the top successfully for the year so far so his opinion is definitely worth listening to.

Bill Ackman showed up at CNBC’s Delivering Alpha Summit and gave his insights on the current market environment. His bond short trade is now another legendary move on record. His talks are always interesting.

For my Asian fans, Happy Mid-Autumn Festival!