Second time in a row the world famous PPT stepped in to save the US stock market when Japanese yen breaking to new highs against US dollar. You may heard that it was NVidia CEO’s quip that sparked the rally. Don’t be fooled.
Howard Marks made a series of short videos discussing several basic concepts that is fundamental to make sound investment decisions. This one is my favorite so far.
Patrick Boyle came up with another funny video poking on the bullshit ventures and apps we see popping up everywhere.
I like the explanation from this video on why the baby boomer generation is the biggest rise in birth rate worldwide. One thing I disagree with the video is BoA’s claim of a new baby boom is coming because we already see a total bust of all birth rates around the world since 2023.
This is rollover week for index futures so another busy weekend for me.
First week of September turns into a real shocker for the US stock markets according to FURUs and whatever Elliott Wave “seers”. Well, as I said it does not matter all these fancy analysis pointing to higher prices a week ago. What really matters are the risk factors outside of the bubble of financial world.
Here is an interesting discussion on all kinds of conspiracies that can affect our lives. One thing to keep in mind is that even what the guest said are all true, we still have to survive today first …
Finally, someone just said it out loud what really caused the 2008 financial crisis – an evil person who abused his power and yet we see no punishment to him and his associates.
If there is one thing that keeps me up at night, it would be what Eric Weinstein said in this video. However, I am also hopeful that even if the world falling into chaos is inevitable, humankind will likely adapt and survive.
Lots of work for me this weekend so can’t even take a break today even though it is so nice outside.
Two whole weeks of SPX trading inside the same tight range ended August with an up close above July close. What a well fought battle between the bulls and the bears. The crowd madness is so extreme that even after one of the largest customers of NVidia proven to have serious accounting issues, could not send the major indices lower, at all.
So how do we make sense out of all these conflicting news? This discussion of the current market environment can give those of you who care about the financial markets some food for thoughts.
One of the main concerns for many is that whether a stock market crash is coming. My take on this is both yes and no. Yes, the current stock market environment is at risk of a major correction of 20-50%. But, the US government and the Fed will do everything in their power, include shutting down the stock exchanges, to stop such crash from happening.
An interesting discussion about the inevitability of a US civil war and other disastrous events coming to US and other western countries. If you keep up with real world information from X, instead of MSMs like CNN, etc., you already know that what this guy said is true. The question is how to survive such big changes in coming years.
And here is someone’s view on how to get through that.
Personally, I think everyone should learn more practical skills to prepare for this expected future. Things that are considered replaceable easily may not be the case several years down the road, meaning that we may have to repair broken items again and again until we can’t.
Until then, life goes on and my projects are piling on as usual that require my attention everyday.
Another interesting week of roller coaster ride at a smaller scale, ended with Powell saying what everyone knows already. Yet the US stock market reacted as if it does not know about it … crowd madness at its best.
Howard Marks’ latest “Memo” provides many good points to consider for navigating the current market environment. Not a long video so take your time to watch.
Nassim Taleb explains this interesting behaviour of our society that shapes the world. In my opinion this is why the modern world is destined to doom.
Many doomsday scenarios showing up on Youtube predicting all kinds of major disasters to happen soon. The funny thing is, if you are as curious as I am, that you search backward into past years of videos available on YT, you would find similar kinds of videos predicting doomsday at those periods. Yet, we are still here.
What does that tell us? Well, it is a very difficult task to figure out the exact time window for the end of the world and no one successfully called it right, yet.
On the other hand, we do not need these astrology or whatsoever voodoo stuff to guess what is coming. Just look at how messed up the US politics is, or that how irresponsible the way US government and its peers spending has become, we all know tough time is coming, even if there is no end of the world level disasters.
But if you must, here is a potential end of the world disaster in the making to keep you up at night. Similar to another one that is expected to happen soon enough near Japan, there are just too many of these potential threats caused by Earth changes to keep count of. And no, they are not caused by human, so stop b.s. to yourself blaming your neighbors for not doing their recycling properly.
One more week to go before month end and I am extremely pleased with our newly deployed trading algos. My team is working harder than ever to take on more markets as they see our hard work is paying off.
Another wonderful week of extreme intraday volatility that ended with option expiration Friday closing near the high of the week. This proves how surreal the US stock market really is – nothing more than a casino with all these money chasing after the next game available.
So here we go again with more FURUs coming out claiming they were right after all … this video provides a balanced view of what to expect next. Of course, a balanced view also means making no directional calls that retail public love.
Bears are extremely quiet after the stellar run last Thursday and Friday while the bulls came out claiming victory like this one.
While many people getting so attached to the gambling den, what really matters now are often ignored. For example, the future of the super powers (US, Russia and China) are very important in shaping where the world is heading. Given this, I highly suspect US will not come out ahead.
I have seen quite a number of astrology videos calling this August full moon being a time of critical moment for world events and reversal of personal fortunes. Here is a video from Joni Patry, the astrologer who correctly called the COVID crisis, on what may happen in coming days.
This month so far is proven very fruitful for our deployment of our trading algos trading more markets.
What I week we just went through in the US stock market! SPX ended the week with almost no change from last week’s close. Many FURUs come out from hiding after being caught dead wrong last week, claiming they are 100% correct that this dip is a buying opportunity …
Next week is option expiration week so many more wild moves are to be expected.
Patrick Boyle provides a much better analysis of the current round of big tech layoffs. I think many of these tech workers will give up their tech jobs and work in other fields because they simply can’t find enough tech jobs in the first place. The ripple effect of having many workers without a job will look similar to the burst of the dotcom bubble back in year 2000.
For those who care about the current stock market situation, this video is a balanced view of what comes next. One thing I may add is that the yen carry problem is not resolved yet. Thus, we can’t tell if the global financial system can really handle the aftermath without more damages done.
Many people may have heard of meditation and breathing techniques but they do not realize these practices directly change your brains’ neuro pathways with both short term and long term effects. For example, Dr. Huberman explained how simple controlled breathing can help regulate your alertness quickly. If you are interested to learn more, you can watch his podcasts where he discuss many of these latest research results.
A brutal week for the stock market ended with quite a few big techs losing more than 20% from their all-time-high. The indices fair better because of the weighting factor – as these big techs drop, their weighting in the indices also drop so we do not see the full impact at all if you do not pay attention to the individual stocks.
So what’s next? I already explained in the past that US election year has a very strong bias to go lower from July onward until the election is over. That’s 3 more months to go. Maybe we get an early bottom if the indices have dropped significantly lower such that fundamental players step in. We will see soon enough.
Here is a video of Gundlach’s reactions to FOMC announcement on Wednesday. He believes that the Fed will cut rate and that for sure in a year, Fed will cut 150 bps based on his models.
My take, exactly as I predicted there is no rate cut for this year, at least in the first half of 2024, while all these experts calling for 5 to 6 rate cuts. Why do I know? Because inflation at more than 3% is not a linear figure – it compounded over a 4 year period already so in order to bring inflation back to norm it has to be a negative figure for a prolong period of time before the world returns to a level that is reasonable relative to people’s income level.
BTW, every single time the Fed started to cut rate, a crash landing in economy happened that took down the stock markets by a minimum of 20% from the date that started the rate cut cycle. So do you really want to see a rate cut now?
My position stays the same – it is more likely the Fed will keep the rate at the current level and no rate cut, forever, or, until after a major crisis hits. And I have a good explanation on why the Fed is trapped. Check out this video on the extreme QE done by the US government itself that render interest rate policy useless.
You really think Powell does not know that? If he cuts rate due to political pressure, inflation will jump to unimaginable level crushing everything …
So what to do in a world like this … I guess a dose of astrology outlook is in order.
The first significant decline in the stock market since the bottom from last year has many people guessing whether this is a buying opportunity or the start of something more serious.
I still do not understand why people can’t even remember simple structural biases after more than 100 years of the existence of the US stock market. This is election year with a fake Democrat President – selling into election day from late July is one of the most consistent biases over all these years. As usual, humans choose to ignore facts laying right before their eyes.
Here is a clip of Jordan Peterson talking with Elon Musk about the future of USA. I don’t agree with Musk that US is still a great country. The chaos in many large cities there are already out of control. There is no way to stop this slippery slope from sending US into total chaos in coming years. This is why those who are wealthy like Ray Dalio chose to leave US.
Here is an interesting video about these AI bots predicting that China will invade Taiwan (this year). As I explained many times here, the madness in the financial markets is the result of retails entering the space at this final stage of the game. One sign of such madness is that all risk factors outside of the financial markets are ignored. What that implies is that a serious correction in the stock market is likely.
I find this documentary fascinating – it makes perfect sense how much money the Vatican has due to its longevity that no country in modern times can be compared with. What I wonder is that what else Vatican has done that the world has no idea of?
So funny that SPX has to print 5666 this week, a tad higher than last week’s high, before the selloff was allowed to happen. Now that the message was sent. Let’s see if it can produce a reasonable correction over the coming weeks or months.
I was asked to provide my view of the markets on longer term basis and I mentioned that we are in similar conditions like 2007 (and other major tops in the past) that the leaders will go into deep correction which will take time to resolve. A 10% correction is reasonable and not something concerning.
Of course, if the 0-DTE options somehow acting up, this may lead to the chaos we have seen back in 1987 but we have no evidence of that happening, yet.
A new video from Hugh Hendry – not much new information from him on the market. It is just fun to watch him talking.
Interesting talk about the Japanese genetic make-up. Equipped with this new information, it all makes sense but then Japanese government may have to reposition themselves in terms of their bullshit on ancestry.
For those of you concerning much about your investment portfolio, here is DoubleLine’s midyear outlook. In short, we are entering a difficult time economically worldwide – as US economy slows down, it will hurt other countries too. Tough time ahead.
I am still on turbo mode working on my projects. We are pushing for deployment of more trading models next month so exciting time for us.
Another record high for the SPX at 5655-5656 on Friday. As I explained in real-time to my site’s members, this is a very important milestone due to multiple reasons. Coming two weeks will be very interesting as we enter the election months.
I think we need to spread this video to a lot more people – establishments work for the big pharma and until a new form of government is created replacing these corrupted officials, there is no future in better medical treatments.
Here is a different take on the expected rate cuts by US Federal Reserve. One thing I find funny is that the financial people never really looking at the big pictures like the risk of nukes flying. Instead, everyone building models or making predictions on these economic data that are total bullshit anyway.
An interesting crossover of a famous psychic and a famous astrologer making predictions that can affect everyone in coming months. Enjoy!
It is so annoying that Windows 10 and above always force you to update. If you do not pause that, stupid Windows will disrupt your work suddenly and close down all the open applications destroying everything not saved. As we install more Windows computers, it gets to the point we have to standardize the updates by our system admin once a month across all the machine. This weekend is one of those weekends …
