TLC Weekly Update October 21, 2023

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With so much uncertainty out there, S&P500 closed at the low of the week on Friday. That led to fierce debate on X among those gurus where the market will be heading next week. From what I see so far, bulls and bears are pretty much 50/50 split. This makes sense though because S&P is sitting at a key middle point here and until one side can dominate the tape, we really do not know which way it will go.

Tucker Carlson’s latest episode on X is a great summary of the f#@ked up world we are in. Those in power make up narratives that fit what they want and to benefit from the outcomes. Waking up from this is very hard for the younger generation because majority of them never really think deeply about the world as the education system has been modified to ensure they can’t think critically. I feel sad for humanity …

A video on Euclid’s Element from Veritasium documented how mathematicians inspired by the book discover things that Euclid could have never think of. Nice video to watch for geeks like me.

I know many of you worry about the near future due to the escalation of regional conflicts and wonder how that will affect the financial markets. Well, I have studied all the historical major conflicts on record and their respective outcomes during and after those conflicts. The conclusion is that there is no pattern at all. So there is nothing we can lean on using recent history as reference.

Given that being the case, if you don’t mind looking into alternative analysis like astrology, this video from Abhigya Anand should interest you.

I am kind of slow today due to serious stuffy nose problem. Whenever that happens, I know it is the autumn season is ending thanks to my allergy. Any how, so much work to get done I better keep pushing.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update October 14, 2023

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What a roller coaster ride this week for the stock market – leaning on the turnaround Friday last week, S&P pushed higher originally but then hammered back down on Friday. Of course, bulls see this as a little setback while the bears believe the sky is falling. I’ll say it is just another week similar to those with Friday being the 13th of the month.

Here is an interesting video from Patrick Boyle on Ireland. Learned something new from the video about the details of big techs using Ireland as a way to reduce their tax obligations.

Many of you know my take that EVs are not good for our future. And now we are seeing breakthrough in ammonia engines that bring the technology one big step closer to mass production.

Eurodollar University presented an alternative look at the current economy using what we know about the great depression period. The pointed raised is very important because given how broken the system is right now, there is no practical solution to fix it.

Today we have a solar eclipse. I have watched many videos on YouTube discussing the astrological implication of that on USA because it is mainly visible in the country. This particular solar eclipse is special because it has a stunning visual effect that, when the sun is fully covered, instead of the sky turning into total darkness, this one has a ring of light. If you are interested in what the astrologers say about this, just search online.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update October 7, 2023

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What a week for the stock market! First it started out flushing lower below previous week low. Then, a last moment turn around Friday saved the week from falling further. Bulls are cleansed out. Bears are cleansed out. Next week a new game begin.

Here is someone who is bullish on the short term outlook but still calling for a 50% crash.

A very interesting video from Hugh Hendry. He raised an important question – are these people holding high up positions in these largest financial institutions really having no clue of what they are doing?

As far as I can see, there are no real bears left in the stock market. Pros who shorted this weekly pullback were all doing it based on whatever technical tools they are using. Hence they get out the moment the market is no longer dropping. No one cares about geopolitical risk or the ongoing depopulation risk. Everyone in the game are now fully controlled by their fear and greed. This kind of environment is always one step away from a price shock that can lead to major disaster for the global financial system.

Here is a nice recap of how close we were from a global disaster that of course would lead to total financial meltdown. I will argue that we are very likely going to see such an event soon and this time we may be running out of luck.

This weekend is a long weekend for Canadians because our Thanksgiving holiday is one month earlier than the US one. So while my Canadian friends are celebrating or taking a break, I am working as usual.

Happy Thanksgiving my fellow Canadians!

Enjoy this weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update September 30, 2023

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Third quarter end this year now being the worst quarter end on record for the major indices. However, the bulls are so high right now that their all important support zone is saved. Many of them loaded up on this “pullback” target looking for at least a retest of the year high. Even more interesting, the so-called bears out there all covering their shorts at this same zone as they can’t see why the stock market would go much lower.

In other words, everyone is bullish now, unlike what the AAII sentiment suggested. Actions speak louder than opinions. What if something out of the the blue happens, like, Bank of Japan fails to defend their financial system? Anyone really paying attention to the global financial system stability at all?

Or, what makes it alright to let the US Federal government to shutdown when US is actually at war with every non-NATO nations in the world?

I find this great example on ChatGPT that shows how stupid it really is. Of course, AI enthusiasts will say that we can train it to solve these problems too. What they failed to see is that by Godel’s Theorem, this blindspot within an AI system will forever not be able to get the correct answer with just a little twist to the conditions. In short, as I pointed out, AI will always be the most useless and being harmful when you seriously need it to help you solve a real problem.

Here is an interesting video update from David Lin talking with Milton Berg on what will happen next in the stock markets. Berg called the top successfully for the year so far so his opinion is definitely worth listening to.

Bill Ackman showed up at CNBC’s Delivering Alpha Summit and gave his insights on the current market environment. His bond short trade is now another legendary move on record. His talks are always interesting.

For my Asian fans, Happy Mid-Autumn Festival!

TLC Weekly Update September 23, 2023

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What a difference a day makes … Bulls thought that they have Friday in their pocket after two consecutive selloff days. However, they are not strong enough to fend off the selling in the afternoon. Now, they are facing the first bearish weekly close that can threaten more downside in coming two to three weeks.

Right after FOMC announcement, Jeff Gundlach joined CNBC to comment on their decision on interest rate. What matters though, is that he has a webcast to his clients two weeks ago on the current market conditions. This webcast has a lot of very good information regarding various segments of the economy. Watching that will give you a much better idea why Gundlach said in that short comment.

Although I don’t like Peter Zeihan’s comments in general, there are something that is obvious yet people choose not to pay attention to. Hence, his take on China’s imminent economic collapse is important. It gives everyone who do not care what happens in China a chance to be prepared for the impact on the rest of the world.

Michael Gayed, whose favorite posts on X lately, is that something is f#*ked! I actually find his takes on the current market environment is on point. Unlike Ray Dalio, trying so hard to sugarcoat the fact that US and its allies are f$#ked, Gayed has explained in details of his approach and how the world, with majority of its participants all blindsided, that some odd event can trigger massive price adjustments in many financial markets.

Back to work for me as usual.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update September 16, 2023

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Another extremely wild week ended for the stock market. Everyday it is as if something surprised the market and forced it to go in the opposite direction from the day before. By Friday close, it ended up closing somewhere near the close from the week before.

Jeff Gundlach talks about the current economy just several days ago. His detail explanation of the mortgage market is something anyone who has a mortgage should watch and learn from.

I loves this old video from Thoughty2 on fake martial arts. I find it very funny because I have watched many demonstration videos lately, from so-called martial art masters in China, demonstrating their so-called incredible fighting skills. I totally understand why these people have to boast because they need to make money from teaching their “arts”. However, fancy moves execution does not equal to ability to fight …

Jim Bianco’s take on energy prices actually matters. The price of gas here has been going straight up week after week. The pain is felt and a frequent mention in local news on TV. Looks to me it will wreck the economy hard for a long time.

Going back to work now. I have a long list of things to take care of this weekend.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update September 9, 2023

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Next week is quarterly option expiration for stocks and stock market indices, it will be interesting to see how next week unfold due to another inside week was formed. I bet a very intense battle between the bulls and bears will start next week as majority of the professional traders come back from their summer vacation.

A very interesting take of the current stock market environment by Milton Berg, who successfully predicted a rally since early 2023.

Jeff Snider has made some very good points on the impact of higher oil price.

The Juice Media finally roasting Canada. Enjoy!

As usual, weekend is the time I catch up on m work. The only difference this time is that I am working from my cottage overlooking the lake. I am hoping a nice change of environment may help improve my productivity.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update September 2, 2023

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Another Non-Farm Payroll week that caught the perma bears by surprise. And the silly bulls are dancing and celebrating their victory. Both camps should calm down and enjoy this long weekend. Relax! Next week can be something completely different, again.

I found this documentary on Mrs. Watanabe a great summary on this subject and its effect worldwide. If you have never heard of this, its definitely worth watching the whole video.

Brent Johnson of “US Dollar Milkshake” fame discussing the effect of China’s economic troubles.

A good overview of the current trading landscape across multiple markets including bitcoin, AI, etc.

As a short term trader, I don’t have strong opinions on long term outlook for the markets I trade. However, I notice madness is developing among many market participants. People can’t help themselves arguing all day on trading forums and X (formerly known as twitter) about where the market is heading.

One thing all investors and traders must remember is that how a market unfold in the future depends on its participants’ perception of the future but their views can change abruptly due to external events. For example, aliens suddenly declare their existence among us can totally disrupt our world. People keep saying these things are unpredictable so they choose to ignore such risk. Is ignoring these risk really make sense?

Although it is a long weekend, I have no time to take a break. Maybe sleep a little longer tonight?

Have a great long weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update August 26, 2023

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What a week for the stock market – NVidia blowoff earning midweek and Powell hawkish statement on Friday gave the world completely opposite outcomes based on normal expectations. Nvidia earning sent its stock price up 11% on Wednesday night but then on Thursday all that gain were wiped out during normal market hours. Powell hawkish statement initially was thought to have pressured stock market lower on Friday but then the stock market went higher in the afternoon. Media and gurus keep trying to give an after the fact explanation of what happened. But does that matter?

Here is a video discussing Burry’s bearish bet in better context. For those of you who want to ride his coattail, watch it to gain a better understanding of the macro situation. But keep in mind that the real reason why Burry made the bet can be something else completely. And also remember that the reporting of one’s positions for each quarter has a 45 days time window. So between end of June and now, Burry’s position may have changed already.

I find this video has a more balanced view of the macro factors that will shape the near future of world economy. If you don’t want to watch this hour long video, I can summarize it here – we are f$#ked.

Back to work for me. No point overthinking much on what to do when the financial system collapse or reset.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update August 19, 2023

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Option expiration week ended with SPX closing at the lowest level over the past few weeks. It is not something unexpected because of the largest technology companies had a huge rally earlier this year. Even if they are not crashing down, taking a breather for a few weeks is reasonable.

The biggest news in the financial world this week must be Michael Burry’s 13F filing. It is reported that he has positioned himself on a bearish outlook for the SPX and NDX indices using put options on SPY and QQQ. It is the largest position he has put on over the past few years. First, we do not know the expiration dates of these options. Second, we do not know the strike prices of these options. Most important of all, we do not really know if it is just a short term trade for a normal market correction which many pros expected, or a conviction trade that Burry thinks that something way worse is coming.

So no point to speculate why he is doing that. And more importantly, you can’t mimic what he does without more details. I am positioned since July on a major pullback for the big techs. I even posted charts on Twitter with the reasons and the expected downside targets. It is not that hard to figure this out.

An interesting discussion of our ever increasing demand of electricity by Patrick Boyle. His takes on EV and electrify everything are very reasonable and the expected eventual taxing on everything electric will come sooner than later. Here is my warning to anyone who think EV is the future, think of the flooding in China – the moment the power grid is down, all things electric are f$#ked.

Just search online for portable solar electric car charger and you will see all kinds of “promises” that in the future, it will become possible, but not now. I think the better answer is never. Many months ago I discussed this topic in detail from the astrology view point. In short, better expect a completely new energy source being developed than to believe whatever we have now will solve this forever increase in demand of electricity problem.

The doomers are thinking the sky is falling – an honest discussion of what to expect in the near future on the economic front.

And of course, there is David Hunter, who tells everyone that the melt up has not happened yet, and that sky is the limit for gold.

In a way, I agree with him, as long as the “one-two punch” I always refer to has not happened, the only solution for the governments and central banks worldwide is to keep printing. So hyperinflation will persist and of course, all risk assets will go through the roof.

Another busy weekend for me – can’t even take a break in the cottage country here the whole summer so far … I miss my cottage.

Have a great weekend all!