A first ever event just happened to the stock market this week, 9 days straight up sending SPX back up to the level before the Trump tariff announcement. So are we on our way to new all time high then?
I don’t know – this bounce was expected but it is not unfolding the way that many FURUs think. We are at a crossroad here – if the tariff mess continue to unfold as expected, meaning that the fight between US and China should last at least 1-2 years, the stock market will not be heading higher. On the other hand, if Trump can take care of the tariff mess in coming 2 weeks, optimism will take over and squeeze the shorts so hard that a new all-time-high is reasonable.
One thing I noticed is that Trump is definitely in fear when the US bond markets are not responding positively to his tariff game. And in multiple occasions he and his team straight out lie to the world that they are in talk with China about the tariff. This is not a good sign because it tells us that he is no different from anyone else in the same position. So called transparency only applies when it is convenient to him.
Here is a bearish view of the situation. Or if you prefer to listen to a person who is wrong on everything all the time, check out this video instead.
In coming months, what matters most is definitely the US bond markets, and this video captured the essence of what US is facing at the moment.
For those of you don’t care about the financial markets much, enjoy this Chris Williamson podcast with Naval Ravikant. I like this one a lot.
Back to work as usual for me.
Have a great weekend all!
