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TLC Weekly Update January 8, 2021

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US electoral dispute is now over. But we are left with more questions than answers on the future of United States. Given how ugly this 2020 election has become, I can’t imagine what will happen by mid term 2022 …

Luckily I am just a Canadian. Canada being such an unimportant country, its political dramas do not lead to any meaningful impact on the world. This makes me feel much better during our elections.

Here is an older article about human brain’s approach to process sensory information. The article came out back in Oct 2019. This understanding of the human brain has helped computer scientists to breakthrough many of their problems in AI last year. So not everything happening last year was bad.

For some mysterious reason, youtube chose to put this on my front page. It turns out to be a charming video that I watched years ago.

I forgot to mention that I finally stopped my 20+ years habit of writing down notes on notepads some 2-3 weeks ago. I took the leap of faith to replace my written notepads with Samsung Galaxy Tab S6 Lite. It takes some adjustments to my routine but I can tell you after 2 weeks of notes taking on the tablet, I will never go back to pen and paper.

I chose this tablet over other options because of the included software for notes taking is better than ipad and ipad pro. I can now easily include clips by taking a picture using the tablet, or taking a screenshot from the browser. But most important of all, I no longer need to find space to store even more notepads.

I picked up a Rubik’s cube over the holiday with the intention to practice my cube solving skill. Then I found this on youtube. I want that cube!

I was asked by many friends about my year 2021 outlook. I will summarize the main points here. Some are technical view based on market data. Some are astrology based projections. And some are just wild imaginations. Consider this a mocking of all the predictions people made for 2021.

  • shortage of food and essentials
  • worldwide cargo transportation cost going much higher
  • interest rate goes up
  • civil unrest everywhere
  • a real pandemic will arrive that reduce global population by 10%
  • major earth quake happening somewhere
  • aliens finally public broadcast their existence among us
  • gold to crash 50% in a year or two
  • bitcoin to crash 80% in a year or two
  • aliens giving us warp drive and unlimited energy technology

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update January 1, 2020

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Holiday season coming to an end this week with the US stock markets closing at all time high on the last trading day of 2020. Who would have thought this is the outcome of COVID-19?

A epiphany came to me yesterday that it should not be a surprise. Back in 1987, the first stock market crash the US Federal Reserve had to deal with, it was caught by surprise and reacted to the situation carefully. Back then, the US Fed held the belief that they should not interfere with the free markets.

Since then, every financial crisis had resulted in the Fed reacting to the situations more quickly. And the amount of money being thrown behind each crisis gets bigger and bigger. The belief of the Fed has clearly changed from non-interference to central planning. There is no more deliberation within the Fed whether they should react to a situation or not.

At this point Fed will answer to all major and minor economic issues with automatic money pumping.

But isn’t central planning a “feature” of communism that the United States claims to be the root of all evil?

The Fed sees no consequence from their actions. However, normal people around the world are feeling the consequence everyday. The wealth gap has grown so much many people are now debt slaves. Isn’t this the cause of almost all the revolutions in human history?

What I worry about most, however, is something else. All the past crisis were singular events spaced out by at least 2 to 3 years. They hit the financial system hard but we have time for people to adapt and recover. What if the frequency of these events increases significantly? Would money pumping still work?

Talking about unintended consequence, here is a piece of local news that I am sure this problem is happening everywhere in the world. Kids with no supervision … you really believe they would not cheat?

Here is an interesting read on the work of a mathematician turned biologist. What I liked most is that patterns can emerge everywhere without the participants knowing. Stock market is a prime example – everyone are guessing and many traders just cannot see beyond their own point of view. In aggregate, recurring patterns emerge from their actions.

And this piece makes me thinking … special organizations would definitely create their next generation operatives with no finger print now that someone have figured out the DNA signature.

Taking a break today and will back to normal schedule tomorrow.

Wish you all a Happy New Year!

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TLC Weekly Update December 25, 2020

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Holiday mode all week watching the stock markets trying to levitate higher just like the past. However, thanks to the deal or no deal drama with the US stimulus package, the whole world has to wait for the inferior actors and actresses in Washington done with their posturing …

I was so busy all year that I have decided to take a short break this week to tidy up my place and cook a turkey. I haven’t cook one for a few years. I am not sure if I still remember how to do it right but who cares. It is time to enjoy the holidays.

Another history lesson I learned lately – what caused the sudden collapse of the Mayan Empire.

For those of you who are at least middle age, you may want to pay attention about this. The everyday stresses you put onto yourself can cause lasting damage to your brain. No wonder I find many people not able to remember anything just one day after an important meeting. Well, I don’t take chances and take notes right after all meetings so that I don’t need to remember anything at all.

For those of you who want a lift you up video, enjoy some latest videos from Ryan Reynolds. I guess he is really making advertisement enjoyable.

Got to go. Need to work on the turkey. It takes several hours to cook the bird.

Merry Christmas!

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TLC Weekly Update December 18, 2020

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Last option expiration week of the year is now finally over. The rest of the year are filled with holidays so majority of the traders will not be trading. I wonder how many trading bots are aware of this and avoid trading too.

The other day my son showed me a game he’s playing online. It is a form of tower defense with several twists to make it appealing to gamers. Similar to all the other latest online games, it is free to play with extra items that one can pay for. I ended up digging out some old research on the economics of these games which explained that they make money by exploiting a form of human defect. Interesting.

In the spirit of the holiday season, here is a video on an animal letter opener.

One of the most messed up political drama this year is definitely Brexit agreement negotiation. Seriously, just watch this video and you will understand completely why there can never be any progress with the Brexit negotiation. Yet another example of politicians love wasting other people’s money …

It is time for me to slow down a bit, do some planning for next year and find inspirations from leisure reading.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update December 11, 2020

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Another interesting trading week almost over with all eyes on next week’s US electoral vote event (Monday, Dec 14) that may result in some shocking twists and turns. All these states filed their cases with the US supreme court may not impact the outcome though. But what if they do? I can’t imagine the mess we are going to see …

This is the time of the year people start to read up the astrology predictions for the coming year. One recurring talk about Dec 14 and Dec 21 this year keeps coming up. The other funny one is the talk about Mayan end of the world year was not 2012 but 2021. I am not a believer in astrology based on Zodiac birth month. It is still fun to read and watch astrologers, both experts and pretend ones, making forecast about people’s future.

I just learned about Russia’s organic food industry and I am very fascinated that how long will it take US to condemn all organic food because it is mostly imported from Russia.

My research on history for some mysterious reason landed me on this story about the evolution of bats. It is a good read though.

A good video by Yahoo Finance asking Paul Tudor Jones his view of the market. It is a short video packed with good info and his thoughts about the stock market may surprise you.

I am writing my 2021 business plan at the moment. After a year of total chaos and surprises, I have so much to add to my usual contingency plan. Trying to anticipate what has never happened in our own life time is difficult. Hence the research into past history to see what can happen and how that impact the economy and our lives becomes very useful.

For example, what if we have another major power outage like year 2003. Or that something like Ebola, instead of COVID-19, is spreading worldwide. The goal is to figure out what has to be done so that I will not react to these crisis level situations unprepared.

And of course, end of the year is a good time to clean out the junk. I finally have to throw away my trusted Samsung all-in-one printer / scanner. It served me well for over 10 years. Over the years, its drum died first, so I could not use it as a printer but I still keep it as a scanner. Then the scanner cover broke last time I moved so all it can do was doing autofeed scanning. And now its autofeeder gave in.

So after all, I ended up buying something this holiday season. Like it or not, life is a series of surprises.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update December 4, 2020

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This Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) week has surprised many people who keep talking about how overpriced the stock market is while all week the market just levitated to stay near all time high. Can’t blame them. Normal people, which include majority of the traders, do not pay attention to the obvious bullish biases during NFP weeks. It is a good thing for those who are aware of it and act on it.

Holiday season now in force so trading volume should be reduced somewhat. However, given the uncertainty of the US election still hanging around, I don’t know if the traditional Christmas rally can happen in a normal way like the past. Well, what’s normal this year at all?

Interesting read about the Donut King, there are lessons we can all learn from this story. From rags to riches once we all heard of but twice, makes it all more interesting.

This touching story about old couples who have to face the hard decision to send their loved ones to nursing home or palliative care is a problem many of us have to face eventually. From my personal experience and also shared knowledge from close friends, it gets harder if you are old and frail yourself as the caregiver. It is important to ask for help when you are exhausted and feeling hopeless.

I came across an interesting video talking about the discovery of how Ancient Egyptian sounds like. I wonder if they really got it right, or, like what most economists do, that everything they do are just pure guessing.

Here in Toronto the lockdown has escalated and a new trend has emerged. People are moving to houses in small towns outside of Toronto. It is like a mass exodus thanks to the technology we have available nowadays making it possible to work from home. These small town house prices have skyrocketed some 15-20% in a few short months while Toronto downtown core condo prices dropped 10-15% overall. This is a price shock event that will take time to absorb.

I reached a major milestone with my trading venture for which the automated day trading model I envisioned some two years ago is now mostly completed. It covers about 80% of the strategies I deem important. Looking back, if I did not made the decision to aim higher, this would never happen. Doing this while the stock markets going through its craziest time was a tough challenge. It also makes it much more satisfying.

For my trading venture, having the first model completed is just the first step, although a very important step. From here my team will have to expand on what I have accomplished and expand the research and development work across many more markets. It will be even more challenging when we start to tackle markets we are not familiar with. Can’t wait to see what we will accomplish in year 2021!

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update November 27, 2020

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Today is Black Friday. Many shopping malls and online stores, however, have already kickstarted their holiday sales since the beginning of the week. I don’t usually participate in this holiday sale period thanks to my lack of interest in buying the latest whatever consumer items. No exception this year. I will kick back and relax a bit more at home while finishing up several projects.

An interesting story about the origin of Manuka honey. We are so used to read horror story of introducing a specie to a foreign environment can cause disaster. This one, however, is an exception.

And here is another bizarre story I bumped into when I am doing my research about important historical moments in the past. Human history is really fascinating and it can be tasty too.

A long video from Wharton School featuring Howard Marks. Not that many people have watched this video because it does not contain catchy phrases or keywords. However, this video is filled with wisdom you can hardly find from the YouTube trading gurus.

Have a nice weekend everyone!

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TLC Weekly Update November 20, 2020

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Another week that the stock market flirting with all time high yet not quite able to stay that way. More vaccine news but not good enough to offset the other pressing issues. Traders should be happy that next week is Thanksgiving week. Traditionally, pro traders who are doing fine up to this point for the year would wind down their trading and take a break all week. Let’s see if trading volume will drop like the past this coming week.

I have been reading books and studying history to try to get a better perspective of the current global situation. It feels like we are going to see drastic changes in coming few years as the post COVID era is getting very chaotic already. It is important to figure out what to do and prepare for this “interesting time”.

I came across some amusing reads that has nothing to do with the big picture though.

For example, this one on the birth of chaos theory and this other article on Olive Oatman the pioneer girl are good read.

During this holiday week, would you be interested in trying the sport of egg boxing? I find this quite funny since we can never guess what people do with their spare time …

Lately, I have this burst of creativity that keeps me going 12-14 hours a day working on my projects. Very good progress is made and I am happy for that. Hopefully this can last long enough so that I can complete several projects before the end of this year.

Have a great weekend all!

Happy Thanksgiving Week to my US readers!

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TLC Weekly Update November 13, 2020

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Today is Friday the 13th. Famous for handing out chaos and troubles. Well, the whole week was a mess for the financial markets thanks to Pfizer’s vaccine announcement spiked the stock markets much higher. And then everyone learnt that its CEO filed to unload most of his holdings of the company. Talking about sarcasms …

With the hanging issue of US election, everyone I talked to are as confused as I am about the near term outlook of the financial markets. A weekend break is much needed to reflect on all these latest developments. Some friends of mind are talking about using psychedelics this weekend to clear their minds. For those of you interested in New Age stuff, here is a piece on DMT trip … interesting I must say.

And for astrology fans, or just astronomy enthusiasts, the last Jupiter Pluto conjunction in this year just happened on Nov 12th. It will not happen again until Feb 4, 2033. That’s 13 years away. I am not sure what this signify. I hope, though, that it implies COVID-19 is over.

Someone sent this video to me on making a simple toy. This can be a fun project for kids and adults alike. Enjoy!

I am kind of re-reading a book I have. “Kind of” because it is a different edition. The book is The Most Important Thing Illuminated by Howard Marks. This edition has additional comments from other people and the author himself. It is a great book for anyone interested in longer term investing.

So much work to get done before the year end. I guess no holiday break for me this year.

Have a nice weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update November 6, 2020

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US election was over but the messy process of getting a US president for the next term has just started. Hopefully my prediction, that it will take years to resolve the issue, is wrong. Some people suggest that US should really be split into two countries instead of one since the votes are so distinctly divided at 50/50 level. They may have a point.

I have an extremely productive week. Multiple issues with deploying automated trading strategies are resolved. New strategy development effort has achieved great progress. Since travel around the world is still quite troublesome, looks like I will stay in Toronto doing R&D all the way into end of this year.

I grew up playing 2D fighting games. And I am pretty bad at it. Somehow I watched this video on the Tekken 7 world championship final. Amazing precision and control. How do they do that?

Just a fun video on the fastest robot solving a Rubik’s cube.

It is disappointing to see US sinking into chaos. Once upon a time, it was safe to send your children by US postal. What went so wrong that this once superpower of the world has turned into a disgrace?

I guess politics is really not my thing. Better focus on my trading.

Have a great weekend all!