TLC Weekly Update April 15, 2023


US stock market again pushing higher this week, even though so many financial pundits calling for the stock market to go much lower with their magical turning dates. Personally I know for a fact that major downturn is coming to the US stock market no matter what the bulls believe in. But I don’t have an exact date for a top because I am not talking about all these market timing stuff or macro play based on the financial conditions worldwide.

All I need to know is that majority of baby boomers are now well passed their retirement age. It is just a matter of time they will continuously sell their stock holdings from their retirement accounts year after year while their children would never be able to offset the outflow. This one factor alone will limit any more upside for the stock market until majority of the stock market holdings owned by the boomers are drained.

Demographic dictates the real trend underlying majority of the swings in political and financial scenes. I mentioned this multiple times in my newsletters over the years. Interesting enough, on Friday Jeff Gundlach mentioned a new book coming out from Neil Howe, “The Fourth Turning Is Here”. You can look up his name for various podcasts featuring his talks. Here is a short video of him talking about US Federal Reserve. It is very insightful.

Of course what I expect is not set in stone. All it takes is the US government somehow find a way to kill like half of all their boomers in a short period of time … then those stocks they own will most likely be tied up in government audits for decades to come. Sorry for spreading another conspiracy theory.

Lately I watched a video mentioning that there are some 7 million young male adults (20-40s) in US are not working at all. Yet, they are reportedly spending 2000+ hours a year on screen time. And majority of them are taking some form of pain medications. And they don’t work. This is kind of scary.

I came across this video about bees that makes me think – things like this usually happens over a long period of time and at the end, when the tipping point is reached, the exponential disastrous outcome will hit. Be ready for major worldwide food shortage in a few years.

Since Howard Marks wrote about the changing landscape a while back, he hasn’t provided any updates on his view. This new video offers some more insights from him about the world.

This week in Toronto we have some exceptionally warm days well above 20C. That’s rare. It’s nice to get some sunshine though.

Have a great weekend all!

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