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TLC Weekly Update February 21, 2020

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Took me long enough to gather the daily trading records on the reference account to produce the updated monthly performance on Big-Game Hunter ES. Some people messaged me that I must be afraid of disclosing the losses. Some even think that the model must have lost everything. Well, BGH has been doing fine.

I do not pay much attention to the daily activities of BGH and downloading the daily statements is something I don’t like to do. Hence I batch process it once in a while. Until I find a way to automate the process, I will limit the updates to the monthly performance only.

I came across this video made by Nassim Taleb on some major misunderstanding of risk by the economist Richard Thaler. It is a must watch for all traders and investors. I have been advocating defensive money management for decades now. Nothing changed. People everywhere still not able to grasp the risk they are taking can actually put them out of any speculative game.

This week I finally get back on track with my exercise regime. My goal is to up my game this year from normal pull ups to single arm pull ups. It is a big challenge – I recall I was able to do that when I was a teenage. Wonder if I can train myself to do that at this age.

Given the virus outbreak, people are getting more cautious everywhere. Restaurants used to have long line up now have empty tables at peak hours. Fewer people going out to the malls. Personally, I am thankful to the technology we have now that I can video conference with people pretty much everywhere.

I guess it will be a long fight against the outbreak so stay safe and keep up with the hygiene routine!

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My Journey to Fully Automate My Trading: How Did It All Begin

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In this internet age, people always question the authority of anyone who tries to make a point. That’s especially true when the point of view one has is completely different from what the mainstream beliefs are. Since my beliefs are at odds with the mainstream trading education community, I guess it is time to set the record strict so that you can decide for yourself why you should listen to me on things related to trading.

Interviewing Myself

I have a habit of interviewing traders (if they allow me to) and collecting answers from them if they prefer the questionnaire format. That adds up to several boxes of records over the years. Many of these traders are good traders whose life long trading experience are extremely useful to newcomers. However, my trader friends also prefer not being put in the limelight, so to speak. I can only use the information myself as oppose to publishing volumes of trader interviews.

One of the questions I always ask these traders is, “How it all begin?”

I am going to answer that myself. Right here, right now.

How It All Began

Many people get into trading because they learn about it from a friend or saw on TV how traders are making big money. If you are interested in making money quickly, you will give trading a try. That’s not what happened to me at all.

When I was young, I have no interest in money making. I did not have what they call entrepreneur spirit. I was not interested in the financial markets. My hobbies were reading books, playing chess and making my own electronic devices.

My older brother was completely opposite. He liked creating his own businesses. He had a keen sense about the financial markets since he was young. He was the person who, at the first opportunity he found, became a floor trader in the Toronto Stock Exchange.

As a young trader, being Asian no less, in a place dominated by very aggressive western people, who would have imagine that he can last six months?

He went on to set a record there – as a first time newcomer, he not only survived the game for a full year but also made 4 times his trading capital by the end of the year. He was the hottest new guy.

From there the direction of my life took a sharp turn. My mother believed that my brother’s new found prosperity was the way to go. My brother thought that my intention to become a full time academic was stupid. Without any other option, I had to give trading a try.

So I followed my brother’s footstep to became a floor trader at the Toronto Stock Exchange.

I also set a record there – I was the youngest floor trader they have accepted thanks partly to my brother’s star power and partly for my perfect score in their exam which never happened before. I had an advantage over others in taking the exam – the hardest part of the exam was related to option pricing and strategies which was damn easy for someone who spent most of his life studying math and science.

That’s why I do not think like others who try to beat this game.

I did not even want to play this game, for God’s sake.

That’s how my trading career started some thirty years ago.

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TLC Weekly Update February 14, 2020

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I am busy working with my team to port the trading strategies from my training courses to support NinjaTrader. To my horror, we’ve found significant discrepancies among the data which in turn making the performance results not consistent. I will write more about this on DaytradingBias after we have completed our investigation.

I did not know that there has been no complete explanation explaining how planes can stay in the air. Interesting read for those interested in science and engineering stuff.

The coronavirus outbreak has serious implication to the global economy. At this point we do not have enough information to understand its full impact yet. One thing I know for sure is that retail stores and restaurants are in terrible shape everywhere where the virus has landed. The damage is done and it will show in first quarter economic data worldwide.

Earlier this week I uploaded a new video to Youtube to mock those people who brag about their day trading. From time to time, my readers will send me links to these videos and ask what I think about them, whether they are legit, etc. It is really a mindset issue – I think I explained very well in my Smarter Way to Trade series but who wants to be told that “they are not the chosen one”?

Just like to take this opportunity to wish you all a very happy Valentine’s Day!

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TLC Weekly Update January 24, 2020

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Time flies when you are having too many correspondence at the same time! My week was flooded with all kinds of messaging – emails, conference calls, instant messages … Many still ongoing so no end in sight with this challenge, yet.

Things should get better next week.

I came across this article on a better way to teach kids mathematics. Just as I thought, it is all about building a better foundation that matters most. I’ve been advocating this concept in trading education for years now … rarely anyone would listen. Maybe I should try harder.

Here is an interesting video of a stock market bubble you may never heard of. Check it out.

This Saturday is Chinese New Year. I guess I will have some unavoidable social gatherings then. Hopefully my schedule is not affected much by then.

My second webinar will be held on this coming Thursday 4:30 pm Eastern Time. For those of you interested in participating, check out my post here for more details.

Happy Chinese New Year!

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TLC Weekly Update December 20, 2019

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I read this article about the earlier days of Tekken, the famous arcade game created by Namco. Very interesting how things were done back in the days. I don’t think you will see that in any game development companies nowadays.

Meetings still pile on everyday and more people asking to meet up for discussion of their concerns from immigrating to Canada, to alternative investments that generate reasonable return with relatively low risk. Seriously, we can’t blame people for seeking better return – with the current zero interest rate environment, keeping money in the bank hurts.

Good news for my premium members – several new breadth models are now in beta and will be introduced shortly. I need to catch up with the documentation though.

I am returning to Toronto early next week. Hopefully when I arrive the weather will be reasonably good. It is not fun to brave a snowstorm after a long flight.

Have a great weekend everyone!

And Happy Holidays!

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TLC Weekly Update December 13, 2019

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I finally uploaded the first video lesson for DaytradingBias youtube channel. Let me know whether you like it. All inputs are welcome.

I am typing this update in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The weather here is pretty hot. I am hoping to explore some investment ideas here before leaving early next week.

I came across this article while waiting for my flight. If you live in North America, you need to know about this dangerous mushroom. Check it out.

I was asked very often by traders and investors alike about this US-China deal. Well, no deal is good enough. That’s all I can say. How can the stock market be 15-20% higher from a time that there were no trade conflict at all to the current state of getting a partial deal is good enough?

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TLC Weekly Update December 6, 2019

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I came across this article on The Sugar Conspiracy telling us the sad story of how the modern nutrition science being all wrong thanks to power struggle and manipulation of data. I especially feel the sadness of how the scientist, John Yudkin, being persecuted by the mobs.

Someone shared this video of the Tonight Show having Gary V on wine tasting. Shortest intro on the subject that is fun to watch too. Since this is the season of drinking, maybe you want to learn a few tricks to show off to your friends.

I just posted a new article to the Defensive Money Management series on position sizing. It is the result of a lengthy conversation with some aspiring traders. As I mentioned last time, there is a very serious disconnect of correct trading concepts and the active trading crowd in Hong Kong. This new article focuses on explaining how to grow your trading business in a way that is sustainable.

I am travelling over the next few days to explore some investment opportunities. Hence the need to post early again this week. Will write about my experience after I go back to Hong Kong.

Have a great weekend everyone!

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TLC Weekly Update November 29, 2019

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I came across this article about Bill Benter, the pioneer in systematic gambling who made more than a billion dollars in horse-racing. I don’t really have many heroes in my journey towards trading success. However, Benter’s story was a major inspiration for me when his story was first reported in Hong Kong back in the 1990s. His approach to scientifically model horse-racing is no difference from my custom market breadth analysis – we are really looking at the data objectively to figure out what really matters.

I have been busy meeting people from early morning all the way to midnight almost everyday since the day I arrived in Hong Kong. They came from various backgrounds and our meetings are on very diverse subjects due to the fact that I have multiple businesses that somehow, of great interest to all these people. It is good that I get this chance to really summarize the experience here.

Immigration to Canada – hot topic and I was told that people of all social economic status are looking for ways to get out of Hong Kong. Going to Canada is an option but it may not be the best choice. As oppose to hard sell what one of my investment firms can do for the people looking to immigrate to Canada, I listened to them and gave them honest advice whether Canada is a good choice for them.

Here is a list of good reasons if you are thinking of immigrating to Canada:

  • your children are young and you are looking for a place with good education system for their future
  • you were educated in Western countries and like the experience
  • you are thinking of retirement and that a decent healthcare system is your concern

If you are not interested in at least one of the factors above, just the damn cold weather alone can be bad enough to drive you away from Canada. After all, Canada is the country with polar bears.

Stable investment vehicles – this is a new emerging topic as playing in stock markets and real estate no longer generate significant returns for many HKers. The outlook of Hong Kong economic conditions in coming 5 to 10 years will likely be consolidation or even recession as global economic slowdown has already hit last quarter. So smart investors are now waking up to the situation and want to park their money in something stable with reasonable return. And we all know putting money in the banks does not produce any return nowadays.

Well, when looking for alternative investments, it is important to understand what you are getting into so that you do not have the wrong expectation from the product. For example, the high interest rate mortgage investment funds offered by one of my firms is not a term deposit. It is by-design a market driven investment product. It carries some market risk that is relatively much lower than those corporate bonds. The more willing you are in understanding the concepts, the more likely you will accept these investment options.

High return investments – this one is the most interesting topic for which I see a very dysfunctional investment mentality among majority of the Hong Kong population. First of all, way too many people have completely messed up beliefs about investing in general. Although normal people in western countries do share a significant amount of these problematic beliefs, the retail traders and investors in Hong Kong have taken this further by ranking luck as being something tangible … just don’t tell them they don’t know what they are doing.

I will prolong my stay in Hong Kong and probably travel to some other Asian countries to close a few more deals.

For my US readers, Happy Thanksgiving!

p.s. I am posting early this week because I do not have computer access in coming two days while on the road.

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TLC Weekly Update November 22, 2019

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This past week I offered The Art of Chart Reading to my readers for $1 at Amazon. It ended up some readers do not have access to the discount due to the fact that Amazon actually has regional limitations on the discount campaign. I apologize for this inconvenience and will organize other discount directly on my site so that all readers will benefit.

Many of you already know that I travelled to Hong Kong and expressed concern of my safety. I like to say thanks to all of you for sending me messages about this. I am doing fine here in Hong Kong so far and I will stay safe as promised.

During the flight while I was doing my meditation, I dreamed up quite a number of ideas for webinars and video lessons. I am working on the drafts now. The only issue is that I did not bring my microphone here. Hopefully I can record the voiceover here with a replacement.

It is kind of fun doing marathon meditation. I have not done that for several years already. It brings back old memories …

I am extremely busy since I arrived in Hong Kong as I already arranged all these meetings beforehand. It is a very effective way to get things done. Starting next week, when my schedule is not as packed, I will post my thoughts about the current state of the financial markets worldwide.

I have been doing this for almost a decade now. The audience has changed from just my affluent clients to all my readers. Hopefully my take on the markets can help many of you navigate the markets in year 2020.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update November 8, 2019

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I came across this video with James Rickards, the lawyer of Long Term Capital Management. LTCM is the firm that nearly brought down the world as we know. This is a great video explaining many things that everyone should watch.

And it is now official, the introduction webinar of DaytradingBias at futures.io on Nov 12th 4:30 pm ET. Register now to participate!

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For those of you asking about NinjaTrader version of the day trading strategies offered at DaytradingBias, I am happy to say that we are making good progress on that front. When they are ready I will let you know.

I have scheduled a trip going to Hong Kong again later this month. This time it will be a short trip to take care of some business deals. I do not foresee much issues to stay connected. For anyone who like to meet up in Hong Kong, drop me a line and we can work something out for sure.

Have a great weekend all!