TLC Weekly Update March 18, 2023


This quarterly option expiration Friday facing all kinds of twist and turns from bank runs on US regional banks and Credit Suisse getting worse and worse with its situation. Yet, S&P500 has shown the world that it is not ready to go lower, even under sure pressure on the banking sector. Maybe, the actual damage to the broad market index from the financials is not as important as many thinks?

The whole world is still discussing the ongoing crisis on youtube, twitter, etc.

Here is CNBC’s interview with Jim Grant on the situation.

And the sarcastic take on Credit Suisse by Patrick Boyle is well worth your time.

DoubleLine has released its latest webcast from March 7, 2023. Remember it is an internal webcast for DoubleLine’s clients. Having the chance to see what Gundlach has to say to its clients can help one to keep tap on the current financial environment.

My take on the situation is that the US regional bank problem is now partially contained by Powell and the US government. What we don’t know is that there can be unintended consequences after the US government, US Federal Reserve and Swiss National Bank all acting at the same time with such bold actions. My guess is that we may see yet another shock taking the US stock market lower in coming 1-2 weeks but as long as no more serious side effects are felt, at least not immediately, we will see at least a sizable bounce thanks to brave investors picking the bottom.

Until the unintended consequences surface, all is well.

I am going back to work after my lunch break.

Have a great weekend all!

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