TLC Weekly Update November 4, 2023


Another Non-Farm Payroll week ended with a strong close thanks to very weak NFP reported. Bulls are cheering that they have won the war while many confused bears thought that they are being scammed. Well, it is just another NFP week that has a strong bullish bias no matter what the reported number is. Nothing changed – we are still in the most risky trading environment ever.

Here is a an interesting video about Bitcoin and what the guest believe will happen in the near future. As usual I do not necessarily agree with the videos I share here but it is important for an investor to understand how others think of the markets.

This video was recorded back on Nov 2. This guest is a bear who believe the stock market will crash hard eventually but that a rally higher first is more likely.

Personally I don’t know where the stock market is heading. In fact, it is clear to me that since 2010s the stock market indices have already completely decoupled from reality. Major stock market indices used to be a leading indicator of the economy by 3 to 6 months. This is no longer true any more. In fact, they do not react to the reality at all until forced to. Think of those bankrupt companies that their share prices traded from pennies to 1000 times higher and then went straight down to zero the very next day.

What do I mean by “being forced to”? The simplest example is that one day we suddenly have no electricity in large part of the world. It is not a far fetch event. It is very likely we will experience that within a year or two given how the world is pushing for WW3. And what would happen then? All EVs turn into trash overnight. All crypto currencies worth nothing. Physical money may work for a while but eventually we will fall back to bartering all the way if electricity, the backbone of modernization, is no longer available readily everywhere.

Here is a video trying to predict where are the risky places in case of WW3 breaks out. I do not agree with the video’s predictions at all but it is a nice place to start.

Enjoy your weekend all!

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