TLC Weekly Update December 31, 2022

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Can’t believe this is the last day of the year 2022 yet here we are.

As someone interested in astrology, I did a non-scientific survey on various predictions made by astrologers and psychics on what will happen in year 2023. The consensus is that 2023 will be a year easier for majority of people and things will get better in general. That’s the consensus and I don’t agree.

In Chinese astrology, year 2023, that actually starts from Feb 2-4, is the last year of a 20-year cycle of the “9-star” feng shui system. After that, it will be the start of the next 20-year cycle. Next 20-year cycle is also the end of the 180-year grand cycle. As I am not here to discuss the technical details of these cycles since I am not here to showcase my astrology ability, it is better to just sum it up in one statement – year 2023 will be an extremely disruptive year for most people in the world. It is the start of chaos and destruction for many years to come.

But isn’t that obvious given the geopolitical tension everyway that something will go wrong? And the earthquake cycle has entered its phase of rising number of earthquakes, that some of them will be major disasters? Buckle up.

Zeihan just did a 3 part series on Demographics. Here is part 1 that I think many people should watch the whole series to learn about how demographics is going to impact us in the coming years. It is a theme implied in my article on this dysfunctional future – without enough younger people working, all societies with an aging population will suffer.

Brent Johnson is back on Blockworks Macro with an update to his view on US dollar. Because the swings in US dollar is indeed, the biggest driver of price in all markets this year, we should pay attention to the direction of US dollar to ensure we are standing at the right side of the markets we are trading. Brent’s words on future redraw of the borders among (and within) countries match my view based on Chinese astrology …

For those of you who love to hear the mainstream media narrative of 2023, look no further. Here is The Economist’s year end video on what to pay attention to for year 2023.

As usual, this last day of the year I will continue to work on my projects and keep going all weekend.

Wish You All a Safe, Healthy and Prosperous Year 2023!

TLC Weekly Update December 24, 2022

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Writing this in late night Christmas Eve here in Toronto while my friends from Asia already sending out their Merry Christmas messages. Very grateful that friends and family are doing alright in this tough year of 2022.

A good video on the various astro cycles and their effects on Earth. There are other shorter term cycles that I used to generate accurate long term cyclical forecast and they have worked perfectly all these years. Given what we know about these cycles, the world will need a lot more carbon dioxide, not less.

I watched an interesting video on FTX blowup that I think bitcoin fans should all watch it. The guest’s deep understanding of the financial industry makes her opinion very valuable to anyone interested in investing in BTC.

In this video Peter Zeihan discussed one of their biggest problems China is facing right now. And could that be the reason for China to, first, employ the zero covid policy, and now, let go of all measures? Just imagine the problem described by Zeihan is going to be resolved in just a few months … another economic wonder that only China can pull off (sarcasm).

I ended up not able to finish writing this post until Christmas.

Merry Christmas and Happy New Year!

TLC Weekly Update December 17, 2022

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The last option expiration Friday did not disappoint. Everyone calling it to go lower yet by the end of the day, the damage done in the morning were erased. A surprise? Hardly unless you keep listening to idiots out there telling you bullshit day after day on how clueless they are with their imaginary reasons behind every market moves.

Watch this video about Logan Paul and his CryptoZoo “project”. I still don’t understand how dumb many of these people are in believing in something so stupid. Until these scams are all cleansed out of the crypto space, it will be very difficult for the real world to accept crypto as a viable technology going forward.

I like this video much because I get to send this to a friend who is moving out of New York City to retire somewhere much more normal. He is laughing to the bank because he took my advice and planned to move out of NYC several years ago. Glad that things are working out for him and his family.

Here is a good video that I think we all have to reflect on before the end of this year. If you want success in life and have no idea how to get things started, this video is one of the best starting points you can just watch and take actions right after.

Last two weeks of year 2022 and I am still way behind with my work projects. Looking back, we’ve accomplished a lot this year and our proprietary trading will be opening a new chapter in trading more markets and taking on major expansion. It is a good time to be in the day trading business!

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update December 11, 2022

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Last week we have a surprise from US PPI for being stronger than expected and that sent the stock market lower a bit. Next thing we know, people talking about all these bullshit that where the CPI should be this coming week. Seriously, 99.99% of people out there including that remaining 0.01% are pretty clueless what the CPI is let alone understanding how it is calculated and more importantly, manipulated by the government to do whatever they like the figure to be. That’s why it is so funny to look at people trash talking each other as if they are some expert of the subject …

So this week we have FOMC decision and CPI reporting. It will for sure swing the markets hard but it is hard to say which way it will go.

The most interesting change in tune is BoA’s Hartnett who changed his long standing position of the US stock market to go lower in Q1 next year to a new low to 180 degree flip to a run higher to as high as SPX 4400 before a fall in 2nd half of the year to a new low. As the most accurate analyst in year 2022, will he be right again in 2023?

Here is a video with Gareth Soloway on 2023 outlook. He made some good points and can help one to put things in perspective.

I know everybody has been quite bearish on BTC lately except those HODLR. Max Keiser presented his view on BTC in this video. He believes BTC is going much higher in 2023. Maybe he is right. I am just a trader and I do not have all these fundamental thoughts on BTC because I am not smart enough to understand why BTC is not scam. But can BTC gives us a tradable setup? Sure and I will stick with my charts only.

One important note on the video – the shoulder twitch the guy kept having whenever he has to make a bold statement about BTC. What does that imply? I will leave it to you guys.

Here is a great summary video of a collective of thoughts from several great minds on antifragility. If you are looking to improve your financial well being, this video a good reminder for you that you if you do not change yourself to overcome these biases, you will never be able to exponentially grow your wealth.

Back to do my chores. Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update December 3, 2022

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Another Non-Farm Payroll week ended with a surprise bearish shock from NFP but then S&P shake that off later to close higher. This should not be a surprise given Tuesday was the week low and that Powell’s speech timed to the T to test the daily up trend line from above and then took off. Another NFP week wonder.

Going forward, we are now inside the holiday season and majority of the firm traders and pros will wind down their trading. Only those who did not make it to the bonus requirements will try hard to push for their year end bonus. As a retail trader, there is no point to force yourself to trade in the coming weeks. It is better used for reflecting and improving your trading approach such that you are better prepared by next year.

Here is a video from someone who is more optimistic than most other videos I linked to in this blog. Good to take a look at someone who holds a very different view from your own to keep our egos in check.

Of course, I don’t think they understand what is really going to happen in 2023. And one of such risks is well explained in this interview of John Mearsheimer. It is not about the economy for 2023, it is the split up of the world that will produce total chaos worldwide.

For what is explained in this video, I actually experience this first hand on the investors’ front. For example, many venture capitals and private equity firms are burnt bad by the FTX fallout. They literally have guns pointing at their back on how they are going to make their investors’ whole. I told quite a number of firms that the crypto stuff their are chasing do not add up, way back in 2021 and early 2022 when we were doing our fund raising round. I was laughed at back then and now, they are “chicken little” asking what I think will happen next.

I don’t think they are ready to accept what I think will happen next so no point to further the discussion.

I got sick again thanks to many of my friends are sick with flu or whatever they like to call it nowadays. The usual routine of body ache, fever, phlegm, etc. It is manageable just not the usual efficiency in getting things done. I guess I need to slow down and get some rest.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update November 26, 2022

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US Thanksgiving week ended with the US stock markets edged higher a little, just like most of the past Thanksgiving weeks. What is interesting is that next week we will get early reporting on retail sales figures over the Black Friday weekend which can set the tone for the stock market or create a rush higher that turns out to be an important swing top. Powell will speak next week so volatility will return. I think this December will be a very interesting one for the financial markets.

As someone who has been telling the climate change crowds that they are being used by politicians and large companies, it is interesting to see this video available on YouTube. I wonder if it will be taken down soon …

I told my team working on our trading algos that I will update our core engine with C++ myself so that the performance can be many times better. Most people do not understand how important it is when one is doing intensive computations to research on any subject, the performance of the algos will directly affect the productivity. Here is a video talking about a friendly competition among coders and the difference in performance they can made. I tried to hire C++ programmers with experience working with several common trading platforms for like months now and every single one of them turns out to be not qualified.

Some idiots with fancy degrees even claim that what I am trying to do will not have much performance gain. Seriously? I wonder if they cheated to get their degrees in the first place …

Since we are so close to the end of year 2022, inevitably people ask what’s my outlook for year 2023. The outlook is that chaos is coming whether you are prepared for that or not. A new multi-polar world is very different from the single polar one we lived in over the past two decades. This video provides a good overview of the problems surfacing right now.

A nice change of pace as we enter the year-end holiday season. We all know it has already started because the radio stations here are playing Christmas songs 24 hours a day. Time to do all kinds of chores to wrap up this hectic year and prepare for the next.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update November 19, 2022

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This option expiration Friday we got this whiplash move within 10 minutes from close on all the major indices. I’ve read that another $2.1 trillion dollar worth of options to be settled on Friday. What a way to end the week.

I did not forget to write my weekly blog last week. I couldn’t because of some freak accident and most of the week I could only work a few hours a day. I am much better now but it will take some time before I fully recover.

Here is a clip of Andrew Huberman talking about testosterone. If you think you are low on testosterone, you may want to try out some of the suggested supplements in the video.

For those of you interested in crypto, you all are aware of the FTX scandal. Patrick Boyle made a great video summarizing the situation. It is a bit longer than the other videos Patrick made because the story of FTX is indeed very complex.

Lately I have seen a disturbing trend of big firms coming out to say people can buy into this bear market rally because it may have legs. And there are all these active traders who claim that the bear market is over already. Whenever the big firms telling us something, their motive is to drum up business and it is never about having the correct call of the future. At the same time, there are reports that dark pools are seeing size players unloading their stocks at record speed these past two months when the stock market has been rising.

I refer you to this video on Michael Burry’s latest tweet. What I think Burry believes is that we will see the stock market go lower a lot more from the current level. Many people do not believe that’s the case. Many even calls Burry a broken clock because they think he always call for market crash. This particular belief about Burry is wrong. From his track record, Burry’s calls are often early, by 6 months to a year. The reason why he is always early is that when all the factors are in place leading to some disruptive changes down the road, you still need a catalyst to end the current trend.

For example, even though the current stock market environment is ready for a dive, without some external forces the stock market can stay range bounded for a long time. It does not need to go higher or lower by much. In fact, throughout history of the US stock market, there are many years in the past where the indices went nowhere.

After typing this up, I am already drained. Will go back to rest.

Have a great weekend all!

And an early Happy Thanksgiving to my US readers!

TLC Weekly Update November 5, 2022

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What a Non-Farm Payroll Week we experienced. Chairman Powell, once again, has made it clear that the Fed will fight inflation and keep rate at higher level until inflation comes back down to their target. Yet, all we hear from MSM and those talking heads is that Fed will “pivot” soon. Such misleading bullshit shapes the minds of majority of the retail investors to keep on piling into the stock market. Insanity indeed.

It is so simple and clear where the overall stock market is heading. But those who grew up in this zero interest rate environment would not understand, or choose to not understand, why everything is so expensive suddenly. It is not going to end well for many people if they continue to live in their own bubble …

Some people asked how come we are getting high inflation suddenly? It is not a sudden event. Watch this video with Milton Friedman explaining where these inflations come from. He made that speech back in 1978. And it tells you everything you need to know and why it will end badly.

Lately, I was re-introduced to this old game by a friend. It is called the Universal Paperclips. Wikipedia has a page about it with link to the game site. If you like playing this type of games, it can easily kill half a day off for you.

Here is a recording of Zoltan Pozsar debating his long time collaborator Perry Mehrling on Pozsar’s idea of the upcoming Bretton Woods 3.0

Notice that MSM are avoiding Pozsar on their shows lately not because what he suggested is too bizarre. In fact, what he suggested is happening now and is predicting a very bad outcome for the United States. That’s why he is being silenced.

I have some heavy moving tasks to take care of this weekend, again. Hopefully this is the last ones for the year. I need a break to to let my back heal.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update October 29, 2022

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Another week of crazy swings in the stock markets worldwide. As of today, the only things I read and watch everywhere is that the stock market can go higher from here. Notice that so far, there is no panic selling from the retail side yet. We are talking about ten months of stock market decline that there is no net outflow from the stock market. Given this is a game of majority lose it all, I will not be surprised that the bulls’ resolve will be tested soon.

A great recap of what happened this week in the financial world. The video is long and the outlook is dark. But then we already know what it is.

For a funnier take of the current situation, no one tops Hugh Hendry. Enjoy!

Some friends asked if it is a good time to buy a house now since the price has dropped quite a lot in some part of the country. Here is an interesting take on the current situation in the real estate market. If what the guest of the show said materialize in coming months, it will take a long time for any major cities in North America to see the bleeding stop in their real estate markets.

To give an example about the real estate markets here in outer area near Toronto here. I have seen houses that were sold at like $1.8 to $2 mil Canadian dollars back in February / March at the peak, have their neighbours selling at $1.6 mil and below lately. Same size, same area, just lower prices. The interesting part of this dynamics is the bullwhip effect where those buyers who bought at the top are trying to rent their properties out at a price level that makes no sense.

In short, these buyers have no idea that you can’t price a rental property based on what you want to make from the property. Renters cannot and will not need to pay up unless they think your property is a good deal. Only those reasonable landlords who understand the responsibility of a landlord know how to attract good tenants.

For those landlords who have not read the laws on how to be a landlord here in Canada, here is a friendly reminder – you better catch up now or you will be punished by law very soon when the tenants are getting frustrated in coming years.

I have a very bad cough for almost two weeks now. Can’t sleep well when one has to cough every few minutes. That affect my work progress a lot.

Don’t like it but I rarely get sick … may as well enjoy the feeling of being unhealthy until I recover.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update October 22, 2022

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Another option expiration Friday was over. How dramatic it was has proven the US stock market is very messed up. A recycled old story from a ethically questionable newspaper on what Fed is going to do, together with a completely timed statement made by a Fed governor right around market open, tells you that the Fed is extremely scared of a market crash …

So they only want orderly selloff down to whatever level they like, yet a crash is not allowed. Interesting magical thinking from an institution that does not know what it is doing.

For those of you who do not understand why Switzerland’s use of the swap line with Fed is a big deal, watch this video. The financial system has already broken given what happened to Switzerland must be extremely damaging. It tells us that it is just a countdown to even more troubles ahead.

Here is a great video giving you an overview of three large macro hedge funds’ takes on the current investment environment.

An interesting take on gold stocks and the big names in the stock market. The discussion on the lack of real exploration for precious metal is indeed a big issue.

Am extremely busy getting all kinds of things done this week.

Have a great weekend all!