TLC Weekly Update December 20, 2019

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I read this article about the earlier days of Tekken, the famous arcade game created by Namco. Very interesting how things were done back in the days. I don’t think you will see that in any game development companies nowadays.

Meetings still pile on everyday and more people asking to meet up for discussion of their concerns from immigrating to Canada, to alternative investments that generate reasonable return with relatively low risk. Seriously, we can’t blame people for seeking better return – with the current zero interest rate environment, keeping money in the bank hurts.

Good news for my premium members – several new breadth models are now in beta and will be introduced shortly. I need to catch up with the documentation though.

I am returning to Toronto early next week. Hopefully when I arrive the weather will be reasonably good. It is not fun to brave a snowstorm after a long flight.

Have a great weekend everyone!

And Happy Holidays!

TLC Weekly Update December 13, 2019

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I finally uploaded the first video lesson for DaytradingBias youtube channel. Let me know whether you like it. All inputs are welcome.

I am typing this update in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The weather here is pretty hot. I am hoping to explore some investment ideas here before leaving early next week.

I came across this article while waiting for my flight. If you live in North America, you need to know about this dangerous mushroom. Check it out.

I was asked very often by traders and investors alike about this US-China deal. Well, no deal is good enough. That’s all I can say. How can the stock market be 15-20% higher from a time that there were no trade conflict at all to the current state of getting a partial deal is good enough?

TLC Weekly Update December 6, 2019

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I came across this article on The Sugar Conspiracy telling us the sad story of how the modern nutrition science being all wrong thanks to power struggle and manipulation of data. I especially feel the sadness of how the scientist, John Yudkin, being persecuted by the mobs.

Someone shared this video of the Tonight Show having Gary V on wine tasting. Shortest intro on the subject that is fun to watch too. Since this is the season of drinking, maybe you want to learn a few tricks to show off to your friends.

I just posted a new article to the Defensive Money Management series on position sizing. It is the result of a lengthy conversation with some aspiring traders. As I mentioned last time, there is a very serious disconnect of correct trading concepts and the active trading crowd in Hong Kong. This new article focuses on explaining how to grow your trading business in a way that is sustainable.

I am travelling over the next few days to explore some investment opportunities. Hence the need to post early again this week. Will write about my experience after I go back to Hong Kong.

Have a great weekend everyone!

TLC Weekly Update November 29, 2019

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I came across this article about Bill Benter, the pioneer in systematic gambling who made more than a billion dollars in horse-racing. I don’t really have many heroes in my journey towards trading success. However, Benter’s story was a major inspiration for me when his story was first reported in Hong Kong back in the 1990s. His approach to scientifically model horse-racing is no difference from my custom market breadth analysis – we are really looking at the data objectively to figure out what really matters.

I have been busy meeting people from early morning all the way to midnight almost everyday since the day I arrived in Hong Kong. They came from various backgrounds and our meetings are on very diverse subjects due to the fact that I have multiple businesses that somehow, of great interest to all these people. It is good that I get this chance to really summarize the experience here.

Immigration to Canada – hot topic and I was told that people of all social economic status are looking for ways to get out of Hong Kong. Going to Canada is an option but it may not be the best choice. As oppose to hard sell what one of my investment firms can do for the people looking to immigrate to Canada, I listened to them and gave them honest advice whether Canada is a good choice for them.

Here is a list of good reasons if you are thinking of immigrating to Canada:

  • your children are young and you are looking for a place with good education system for their future
  • you were educated in Western countries and like the experience
  • you are thinking of retirement and that a decent healthcare system is your concern

If you are not interested in at least one of the factors above, just the damn cold weather alone can be bad enough to drive you away from Canada. After all, Canada is the country with polar bears.

Stable investment vehicles – this is a new emerging topic as playing in stock markets and real estate no longer generate significant returns for many HKers. The outlook of Hong Kong economic conditions in coming 5 to 10 years will likely be consolidation or even recession as global economic slowdown has already hit last quarter. So smart investors are now waking up to the situation and want to park their money in something stable with reasonable return. And we all know putting money in the banks does not produce any return nowadays.

Well, when looking for alternative investments, it is important to understand what you are getting into so that you do not have the wrong expectation from the product. For example, the high interest rate mortgage investment funds offered by one of my firms is not a term deposit. It is by-design a market driven investment product. It carries some market risk that is relatively much lower than those corporate bonds. The more willing you are in understanding the concepts, the more likely you will accept these investment options.

High return investments – this one is the most interesting topic for which I see a very dysfunctional investment mentality among majority of the Hong Kong population. First of all, way too many people have completely messed up beliefs about investing in general. Although normal people in western countries do share a significant amount of these problematic beliefs, the retail traders and investors in Hong Kong have taken this further by ranking luck as being something tangible … just don’t tell them they don’t know what they are doing.

I will prolong my stay in Hong Kong and probably travel to some other Asian countries to close a few more deals.

For my US readers, Happy Thanksgiving!

p.s. I am posting early this week because I do not have computer access in coming two days while on the road.

TLC Weekly Update November 22, 2019

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This past week I offered The Art of Chart Reading to my readers for $1 at Amazon. It ended up some readers do not have access to the discount due to the fact that Amazon actually has regional limitations on the discount campaign. I apologize for this inconvenience and will organize other discount directly on my site so that all readers will benefit.

Many of you already know that I travelled to Hong Kong and expressed concern of my safety. I like to say thanks to all of you for sending me messages about this. I am doing fine here in Hong Kong so far and I will stay safe as promised.

During the flight while I was doing my meditation, I dreamed up quite a number of ideas for webinars and video lessons. I am working on the drafts now. The only issue is that I did not bring my microphone here. Hopefully I can record the voiceover here with a replacement.

It is kind of fun doing marathon meditation. I have not done that for several years already. It brings back old memories …

I am extremely busy since I arrived in Hong Kong as I already arranged all these meetings beforehand. It is a very effective way to get things done. Starting next week, when my schedule is not as packed, I will post my thoughts about the current state of the financial markets worldwide.

I have been doing this for almost a decade now. The audience has changed from just my affluent clients to all my readers. Hopefully my take on the markets can help many of you navigate the markets in year 2020.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update November 8, 2019

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I came across this video with James Rickards, the lawyer of Long Term Capital Management. LTCM is the firm that nearly brought down the world as we know. This is a great video explaining many things that everyone should watch.

And it is now official, the introduction webinar of DaytradingBias at futures.io on Nov 12th 4:30 pm ET. Register now to participate!

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For those of you asking about NinjaTrader version of the day trading strategies offered at DaytradingBias, I am happy to say that we are making good progress on that front. When they are ready I will let you know.

I have scheduled a trip going to Hong Kong again later this month. This time it will be a short trip to take care of some business deals. I do not foresee much issues to stay connected. For anyone who like to meet up in Hong Kong, drop me a line and we can work something out for sure.

Have a great weekend all!

My Journey to Fully Automate My Trading: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly

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Without the institutional level support, like what I usually get for my affluent clients, auto trading is not without its issues. Although my experience over the past few months is in general very positive. There are things that everyone who try to auto trade through retail brokerages must watch out for.

The Good

When everything is working fine, your automated trading strategies just do what they are supposed to. You can do whatever you like during the trading hours. If there were trades taken, Tradestation automatically SMS the trades to my cell. So I don’t even need to do end of day checking right after market close if I am busy then. I can simply do that later knowing that everything is already taken care of.

The Bad

Well, this is where hiccups happen and you just have to intervene.

From my experience deploying trading strategies, I know the most important thing is to make sure the platform is running smoothly. Hence I make it part of my routine to check on the health of the trading computers and the platforms before the start of a trading day to make sure everything is working correctly. I now delegated this task to my assistant. Eventually, I will introduce self checking and reporting to the trading servers so that we know if there is anything going wrong when the expected reports do not arrive on time.

Over the past few months, it happened twice that somehow Tradestation was not able to reconnect to its brokerage server. It is not the fault of the Tradestation software though, as we tracked it down to massive outage at the ISP. We rebooted the ISP modem and restarted the servers quickly these two times with no impact on my auto trading at all.

The Ugly

However, there was once that we have a much more serious issue.

Tradestation crashed right after the opening without me knowing.

And on that particular day I know the automated day trading strategy should take on a position but I never received the confirmation on my cell phone. So I messaged my assistant to look into this and found out Tradestation crashed into a limbo state.

Even after restarting the server, Tradestation cannot go into auto trading due to the fact that there is an open position mismatch. I had to manually open the position myself through the magic of remote access. Then I was able to activate the auto trading. The rest of the day Tradestation worked fine.

I have no idea why the platform just crashed. There are many reasons why it crashed the way it did. What I am more concern about is how to ensure such incident does not happen again in the future. I am still working on this.

TLC Weekly Update October 25, 2019

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My test drive of Interactive Broker working with MultiCharts is completed. It works pretty well with some minor issues here and there. So far it is definitely a functional setup for automated trading. I will write more about this combination at DaytradingBias.

Nassim Taleb did this interview talking about his book Skin in the Game. I like the way he talked about Paul Krugman and other dysfunctional academics. He really does not give a sh*t and speak whatever he wants.

I have some serious moving to be done this weekend, including some major reorganization of my storage. I need this clean up done for several years. As usual, I procrastinate over these things until one day I just jump on it.

The introduction webinar at futures.io is now scheduled on Nov 12th. Those of you interested in participating can visit the site and sign up.

I finally catch up with my backlog of emails. Going forward I will schedule regular webinars at DaytradingBias so that members can just watch the videos instead of firing tons of questions to me. Sometimes it is just that much easier to explain things with pictures and examples that you can see.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update October 18, 2019

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It is getting cold here in Toronto. Temperature dropping fast. It looks like a very cold winter is ahead of us.

Many project deadlines are clustered this week onward until beginning of November. So far everything working out fine. Quite a number of these projects are related to DaytradingBias. I will have separate announcement on the site when they are ready.

The introductory webinar with futures.io is now rescheduled to November 12. Those who are interested to join can mark the new date down. I will be organizing some kind of special offers to go with the event. I will post more details as we get closer to the webinar.

The hacking of my sites has picked up steam again this week. From what I learned, it happens to many other websites too. My team has no choice but to monitor the situation and deal with the aftermath one attack wave at a time. Here is a real-time map of total number of attacks worldwide handled by the Wordfence network.

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For my members who find the sites not loading as quickly as they should, just drop a line to my team by email so that they can look into that as soon as possible.

Came across this article on my LinkedIn feed, Tails, You Win. It illustrates how long tails, or exceptions that happen way too often, really matter and how they persist in the real world. In a way, it is another form of the 80/20 rule many of you already aware of, just that it is much more acute when it comes to any thing that is money related.

I guess writing an article or posting a video on the subject that focus on trading is in order.

Have a great weekend all!

TLC Weekly Update October 11, 2019

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Lack of sleep is definitely a problem this week. So many things have to be taken care of, yet I do not always know exactly what to do with them. Taking on new challenges is fun this way.

Squeezed some time to download the daily statements for Big Game Hunter ES reference account over the past two months this week. Monthly performance summary should be updated already for everyone who like to track the performance of this automated trading strategy. When I get the chance I will follow up in my article series on auto trading what I think about the performance of the strategy so far.

In order to free up space in my office, I have to somehow go through many old stuff and boxes I never open since they were packed several years ago. Threw away a lot of garbage so far but I managed to find quite a number of interesting items, including something nostalgic like the Signal FM box that I used for trading almost 30 years ago.

For those who are too young to know what I am talking about – eSignal used to be Signal and the real-time data were streamed through FM radio frequencies and cable channels.

I wonder if eSignal still support this kind of broadcasting service …

I came across this interesting video and its article version titled The Toolbox Fallacy. It is a great reminder to all those who failed to accomplish what they desire yet keep on giving themselves excuses, that it is very important not to make yourself stuck in a loop of needing yet another tool before you will actually get something done.

BTW, due to scheduling issue, my intro webinar at futures.io will be delayed to November. I will post about the new date once I get it.