Author: Lawrence Chan

This Friday option expiration stayed in tight range pinned at the SPX 4200. It is clear that bears who tried to time this market top who are overleveraged are now cleansed from the game. They are not wrong per se based on broad measurements of the stock market. However they failed to take into account that Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 are both market capitalization weighted (in greatly simplified terms). Hence all it takes is a few stock market leaders going higher will power up the indices when 90% or more of the components are going nowhere.

As I pointed out in my newsletter for my premium members, bears need to understand that it is wrong to think the chart is telling them that the indices are going lower. The charts are telling them that the indices are venerable to steep correction should anything really bad happens. As long as such event has not happened, the slow climb can continue just like year 1999.

Another round of opposite views of the markets – a bear and a bull. As usual I do not necessary agree with their point of views. But then it is useful to see why the bulls and the bears do not agree with each other even though they are looking at the same damn set of information.

Here is a very educational video on how the major participants operate in the financial markets really dictates the way these markets move. If Mike Green is correct, the future of financial markets will change drastically in coming months.

Found an interesting channel talking about history from a different perspective. Enjoy!

As usual I have to keep working even for a Canadian long weekend because US holidays do not always line up. This week is one of those.

Have a great weekend all!

NFP week ended with a wild roller coaster ride all week. FOMC announcement on Wednesday did some damage to the stock market however the earning report from Apple turned the market around hard on Friday. Yet, it so funny to see that at the end, S&P500 is still stuck in the same place, again, by Friday close.

Here is a video telling the simple truth of what US really is all about. I do not agree with him that Russia and China are more corrupted at the top level though. US is way more corrupted as I pointed out in the past that those two countries are just not as articulate with hiding the corruptions.

Peter Zeihan reported about latest IMF economic forecast for the year.

A discussion of the current regional banking crisis from the perspective of a crypto guy.

Let’s round up this week with a joke on Brandon.

I have a number of technical emergencies to address this week, so must go back to work on them now.

Have a great weekend all!

Month end for April managed to send the stock market indices closing above the first quarter close. That’s a powerful message sent to the world that the stock market is going to go much higher … for those who want to be scammed. This works only when more than 50% of the components in the major indices also doing the same. Well, I can tell you that it is not the case this time. So no confirmed strength for the stock markets to go much higher.

A great video on a real medical scientist calling bullshit on the bull shit research on statins. I always tell people that nowadays you can’t trust majority of the so-called research results because most of those involved are goal seeking instead of real exploration of what matters most. I am luckily that I can dissect these papers and tell if they are lying or not. Normal people will have a hard time figuring out the truth. Watch the whole video on how people in powerful position can suppress the truth even when their work are garbage that harm people.

For those of you interested in investing, Ray Dalio came out the other day in a podcast updating his thoughts on the subject of the changing world order. I think he has now finally telling what he truly believes will happen soon.

I didn’t know that there is this train that goes from Toronto to Vancouver. It looks nice enough to at least try it once. When I get the chance for a short break I will definitely give this a try.

Kevin Kelly went on The Tim Ferriss Show lately. If you have the time, I think many of you will enjoy this podcast.

Got to go. Tons of work to get done.

Have a great weekend all!

Another option expiration week ended in absolute stalemate between the bulls and bears. Funny enough, it looks like everyone from the hedge fund industry told me they are forced to buy in the hope of a melt up from here … I don’t know what to say.

Here is a video on the stock market talking about the bullish scenario. I don’t agree with Jason Shapiro point of view but then what do I know since I am just a day trader.

My personal take on the current trading /investing environment has not changed. It is simply not about the financial news or what central banks do at all. The future hangs on the geopolitical landscape going forward and any development on that front will decide what goes up and what goes down.

Patrick Boyle posted this interesting video about the “finfluencers”. The very last part kills it. Enjoy!

Many of you know my take on Cathie Wood’s ability in investing. Here is a short video of Hugh Hendry dissecting the so called insight from her. The video started with some trippy effects and if you do not like that skip to 2:30 to watch his actual analysis.

For those of you who just started hearing about ChatGPT, here an article talking about people who are smart enough to use it to make more money for a long time already.

Out of the blue, I have all these new technical issues to resolve. I am not sure if it is because of Mercury retrograde that starts on April 21 and ends by May 14. Anyhow I know this will eat up all my time.

Have a great weekend all!

US stock market again pushing higher this week, even though so many financial pundits calling for the stock market to go much lower with their magical turning dates. Personally I know for a fact that major downturn is coming to the US stock market no matter what the bulls believe in. But I don’t have an exact date for a top because I am not talking about all these market timing stuff or macro play based on the financial conditions worldwide.

All I need to know is that majority of baby boomers are now well passed their retirement age. It is just a matter of time they will continuously sell their stock holdings from their retirement accounts year after year while their children would never be able to offset the outflow. This one factor alone will limit any more upside for the stock market until majority of the stock market holdings owned by the boomers are drained.

Demographic dictates the real trend underlying majority of the swings in political and financial scenes. I mentioned this multiple times in my newsletters over the years. Interesting enough, on Friday Jeff Gundlach mentioned a new book coming out from Neil Howe, “The Fourth Turning Is Here”. You can look up his name for various podcasts featuring his talks. Here is a short video of him talking about US Federal Reserve. It is very insightful.

Of course what I expect is not set in stone. All it takes is the US government somehow find a way to kill like half of all their boomers in a short period of time … then those stocks they own will most likely be tied up in government audits for decades to come. Sorry for spreading another conspiracy theory.

Lately I watched a video mentioning that there are some 7 million young male adults (20-40s) in US are not working at all. Yet, they are reportedly spending 2000+ hours a year on screen time. And majority of them are taking some form of pain medications. And they don’t work. This is kind of scary.

I came across this video about bees that makes me think – things like this usually happens over a long period of time and at the end, when the tipping point is reached, the exponential disastrous outcome will hit. Be ready for major worldwide food shortage in a few years.

Since Howard Marks wrote about the changing landscape a while back, he hasn’t provided any updates on his view. This new video offers some more insights from him about the world.

This week in Toronto we have some exceptionally warm days well above 20C. That’s rare. It’s nice to get some sunshine though.

Have a great weekend all!

This quarterly option expiration Friday facing all kinds of twist and turns from bank runs on US regional banks and Credit Suisse getting worse and worse with its situation. Yet, S&P500 has shown the world that it is not ready to go lower, even under sure pressure on the banking sector. Maybe, the actual damage to the broad market index from the financials is not as important as many thinks?

The whole world is still discussing the ongoing crisis on youtube, twitter, etc.

Here is CNBC’s interview with Jim Grant on the situation.

And the sarcastic take on Credit Suisse by Patrick Boyle is well worth your time.

DoubleLine has released its latest webcast from March 7, 2023. Remember it is an internal webcast for DoubleLine’s clients. Having the chance to see what Gundlach has to say to its clients can help one to keep tap on the current financial environment.

My take on the situation is that the US regional bank problem is now partially contained by Powell and the US government. What we don’t know is that there can be unintended consequences after the US government, US Federal Reserve and Swiss National Bank all acting at the same time with such bold actions. My guess is that we may see yet another shock taking the US stock market lower in coming 1-2 weeks but as long as no more serious side effects are felt, at least not immediately, we will see at least a sizable bounce thanks to brave investors picking the bottom.

Until the unintended consequences surface, all is well.

I am going back to work after my lunch break.

Have a great weekend all!