Category: Blog

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TLC Weekly Update October 16, 2020

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This was option expiration week but then thanks to the way Softbank and its copycats cornering the stock market like no tomorrow, the option market makers have no choice but to accept defeat. Many gurus out there keep saying the stock market is not following the reality of the real economy. I have a slightly different take on the detachment of correlation though – underneath the major indices, only a handful of stocks are driving the indices to all time high while majority of the other components have not recovered like the real economies around the world. The stock markets are reflecting the reality – that only a handful of companies benefited from the situation.

Interesting read about the energy efficiency of computing. CPU overheat is something that affect computer performance ever since they were created. It looks like we finally learn more about this issue over the past several years that can contribute to major breakthrough in computer performance.

Scary tell from Loy Machedo in this YouTube video. Young people who are fortunate enough to grow up in the better parts of the world should know about the reality out there. The world is full of dark corners and the willingness to pay attention to these issues can help you develop a proper perspective of the world we are living in.

For the programmer readers, here is a long read about Amazon’s epic failure at cracking the online game industry. Sometimes, doing everything in-house just because you can afford it may lead to massive waste of resources and failure to deliver anything of significance. The same problem persists with majority of the aspiring traders who think they can afford to lose enough money to hack their way to trading success …

I have so much work to catch up with so I will wrap up here.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update October 9, 2020

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This week the markets are all about deal or no deal on the US stimulus package. It reminded me of the old saying that “all politicians are failed actors and actresses”. How long do you think they will continue with these dramas?

A good read about the loss generation in Japan. These people are in their 40s to 50s now and are still struggling. If not for the polite / mild culture of Japan, this can turn into a very serious problem. Just look at civil unrest everywhere else you probably get what I mean. Are we really heading towards Japanification? As some people put it 10 years ago, thanks to the mistakes made by governments everywhere to print money with no idea what the unintended consequences are, the outcome can be the end of our civilization.

This article is a good example how China’s business people conduct their businesses. Many westerners made the mistake believing that the current China has anything to do with the ancient heritage on the same piece of land. Well, it does not. It is a completely different civilization created from scratch. Bits and pieces of the ancient traditions and values of China are passed down but I don’t think you will easily find that anymore.

Robert Greene came out with another video – a conversation between him and Ryan Holiday. It is a long video of about an hour of conversation. It raises some questions we should all ponder upon in this environment.

Lots of things to wrap up from last quarter while setting up shop for my new venture. I am hoping my time will free up a bit more later this month so that I can sit down and write something interesting outside of trading.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update October 2, 2020

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First debate of three scheduled just took place this Tuesday and we already have a taste of what is coming up. I wonder if the viewership would drop over time though as there is really nothing new or useful being discussed. Unless, of course, some super juicy conspiracy facts are exposed in coming weeks …

And now Trump declared that he tested positive with COVID, the plot thicken with even more uncertainties in coming weeks. How the stock market will react to this can be complicated because no one knows the outcome.

Someone referred me to this short video of Hugh Jackman being interviewed by an YouTuber. Either the youtuber has made a serious impression from the past, or that Hugh Jackman has a very good memory. I will let you decide.

I was asked lately by a number of people about the importance of statistics in trading. My point of view is that, before one even talk about statistics, they need to understand the difference between frequentist and Bayesian approaches. The two camps lead to distinctly different way to formulate their conjectures and inference methods. I personally do not believe that the frequentist approach works with trading and it is proven by Nassim Taleb that financial markets are all fattail animals. Here is a good short piece on the subject.

And having the correct understanding of Bayesian inference, is all more important in this post COVID world. Check out this video from Veritasium on the subject. It can help those of you who are so influenced by the reporting of daily cases to calm down and rethink about the whole situation.

Coming week I will be extremely pre-occupied by all kinds of paperwork and business chores. Better get things started now.

Have a nice weekend all!

p.s. belated Happy Mid-Autumn Festival to all of you who celebrate the occasion!

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TLC Weekly Update September 25, 2020

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Roller coaster ride in the stock market continues. Nasdaq 100 rallied 5% higher from Monday low and then fell back down to Monday low right after. Such high volatility can induce even higher volatility going into election month. Investors and speculators should be more careful in coming few weeks. Powell may have very limited power in popping up the market should some kind of panic kicks in …

Learned something new here on how ants decide when and where to build bridges. Sometimes things are far more simple then we choose to believe in. One good example is the microstructure of the stock market. People cannot help themselves to make things so complicated when they look at the price movements that ultimately leading them to make bad trading decisions.

Sometimes brand building can be very bizarre because human nature is – crashing two trains to make a train company famous. As suggested by one of my staff, that I should record my trading computer 7/24 so that they can produce ASMR videos for those trading addicts on YouTube. Been thinking about it and may give it a try.

In case you do not know what ASMR videos are, you can search for “What is ASMR” on youtube to knock yourself out.

With all these riots and emotional “heated debates” among people with different viewpoints of things happening around us, maybe it is time to remember that Socrates hates democracy. My point is, you don’t need to have an opinion on things you don’t know. You don’t need to make a call on what is happening around you as if you are an expert of the subject. Listening too much to the news, which are by design to focus on extreme events to get your attention, is bad for your health.

Lately I’ve heard a lot of talks of the inevitability of the financial system breaking down. For example, Ray Dalio publicizes the idea that eventually the Fed will hit a wall with what they are doing. And some people are already thinking about bartering if “shit hits the fan”. Bartering has been around ever since human existed. Only after cash being accepted as the default form of medium for transactions that barter became less popular over time. So pay attention to the rise of bartering will give you a clue how close we are from that “wall”.

So much to get done this weekend again, got to run.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update September 18, 2020

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This is the quarterly option expiration week. As I explained in my past writings, the stock market behaviour during option expiration week is not the same as the other ones which often caught traders on the wrong side of the market. And it is happening again this week with people all cheering for a strong start for the week and then everything flipped upside down going into Friday. Awareness of these pattern changes can really help traders improve their performance into the next level.

I watched a good video from Veritasium on success – how luck play such an important role in our world really matters.

I came across an article about our bones being an important organ in maintaining our health. It looks like there are a lot more to research on this subject in coming years. For me, it gives me the motivation to not skipping regular exercise.

And here is an article that really mess with those of you who hate astrology so much – about the oysters and their sensitivity to the environment.

I have a lot to do this weekend so I will keep this post short.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update September 11, 2020

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Roller-coaster ride indeed for the stock market this week. Intraday swings pushing 3% almost everyday. Hope my day trading readers manage to catch some of these awesome moves!

This week I have multiple things that have to be taken care of quickly, which in turn completely messed up my original schedule. It is a challenge to get back on the rhythm when you want to sit down and do some research work yet being bombarded by emergencies one after another. Luckily the more time-sensitive works are now taken care of and I think I can get back on track to work on my more important projects.

Interesting video on mice reaction to the environment and breathing techniques to improve your cognitive functions. If you often wonder why breath work can do wonders, this video will give you a good answer.

For those of you who like playing chess, you would definitely know who Hikaru Nakamura is. As one of the strongest chess players in the world, he makes his living doing live twitch streaming. Lately, he is having fun playing with only garbage openings to rank up a new account quickly. The latest instalment of the videos shows us normal players that openings really does not matter when you are as good as Hikaru while facing “good” players.

We are seeing trees with leaves turning yellow / red already in northern part of Ontario. This summer definitely feels much shorter than last year.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update September 4, 2020

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What a week for the stock market – when everyone was talking about the market would never go lower because of the Fed policy, next thing you know we got a one day drop of more than 6% in Nasdaq 100 and 3% in S&P500. Usually September and October are the more volatile months so more fireworks is very likely in coming few weeks. On top of that, we have US election in early November. This is going to be very interesting for aggressive traders going into the end of this year.

Robert Greene just released a new video on human irrationality. It is a long video (about an hour) that I think everyone should watch and learn from it.

For those of you who grew up with the Apple II computers, you probably played the game Prince of Persia. Here is an interesting video on its creator Jordan Mechner who figured out how to break the Apple II hardware limitations. What he has accomplished shows the importance of having multiple voices in any large scale projects. If he had stayed the course of doing what he thought the game was all about, Prince of Persia would not have becoming the iconic classic games of all time.

And remember, never ask a surgeon whether you need a surgery – interesting talk of clash between Canada’s CMHC outgoing chief and Canadian real estate industry.

Looks like this weekend I will have a break from my marathon meetings. I need this badly as my biological clock is totally messed up over the past few weeks. Some “me time” for meditation and exercise sounds like a plan.

Have a great long weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update August 28, 2020

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A very productive week coming to an end while leaving me quite happy and exhausted. For one, finally closed a deal that has a marathon run of six months of negotiation. On trading side, I am making great progress with MultiCharts automated trading. Persistency and being patient have again proven to be useful when you want to accomplish something that worth the effort.

I am learning how to take night sky pictures lately. It is very different from taking regular photos due to the need of long exposure and other complicated settings. Will post some of the results here when they are reasonably enjoyable. Since I don’t have anything good yet, I have to use a stock photo this time.

Here is an interesting story on why the Sistine Chapel does not allow people taking pictures. I have been to Rome many times and stayed there for quite a bit in the past. Never thought of the reasons behind the no picture rule are so obscure.

For those of you who are trying to do intermittent fasting, you should read this good research paper on fasting from Japan. It will add to your understanding and help you stay the course.

I found a good video on YouTube with Jeff Gundlach talking about the problem of finance illiteracy. There is a link to the complete interview in the description as well. The fully interview is long but it is a very enjoyable one covering many aspects of his life. It is like reading his biography uncensored. I found the part on astrology about him very fascinating. As someone like myself who have a similar scientific background and beliefs, yet accepting the fact that astrology can be useful and helpful to people.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update August 21, 2020

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Another roller coaster week for the stock market – S&P tagged its all time high before the outbreak and then suddenly turned south after learning that US Federal Reserve is not as accommodative as people want. Even though the sentiment and market breadth turned bearish, thanks to the strength of the big five tech companies, Nasdaq 100 (or should we call it Nasdaq 5) recovered.

This is definitely not the time to have a strong opinion about the market. Those who take it one day at a time can do fine.

Fun read about Max Brooks, author of World War Z and his takes on the pandemics plus other things.

One more fun read about Japan, KFC and Christmas.

Lately I was asked by many people from Hong Kong of my opinion about leaving Hong Kong to live in UK using their BNO passports. Since I don’t know much about the subject, I turned to my friends who are living in UK for more information. Well, the information I gathered tells me that it may not be a good idea.

Several factors I learned:

  • The basic cost of living too high
  • The near impossibility to land professional jobs because all the professional licenses in Hong Kong are not recognized in UK
  • As a foreigner staying in UK means no support / government aids on education for children and no medical health insurance
  • Next to impossible to become a UK citizen as you burn through so much money there for 5 years

So it looks like UK is really doing lip service to those people in Hong Kong. All UK wants is some high net worth Hong Kong people to stay there and spend a lot of money to stimulate their economy. It is not a surprise though …

If you really want to leave Hong Kong, I would suggest Canada. For those people who do not have a lot of money to immigrate by investing or opening a new business, there are a number of places in Canada looking for simple labor with no qualification whatsoever. One such destination is Yukon. Due to its extremely harsh weather, no one want to stay there and it is always in need of workers. It is easy to land a job there as a foreigner. After staying there for several years, you will be able to apply for your immigrant status and ultimately citizenship.

Comparing this to the BNO bullshit, which is kind of sexy on the surface, of course it is not appealing. But it is a simple honest way to immigrate. For my Hong Kong readers, think about it.

Just watched a video on the Brooks Brothers. As usual, CNBC does not catch the point why a brand really struggle. In essence, as long as a business serves the middle class or middle-upper class clientele, it gets destroyed during the past 50 years as that part of the population dropped to insignificance. For any consumer goods businesses to survive nowadays, it has to be either mass market focus, or ultra high-end focus. There is no in-between market for a long time.

Time to wrap things up and head for my cottage!

Have a wonderful weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update August 14, 2020

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Finally face to face meetings after “stage 3 re-opening” is here in Toronto area. Meeting marathon still. So much changes have to be implemented in everything and everywhere. The businesses I invest in all have to change the way how things are done so that the latest health guidelines are followed. Any failure to comply with the regulations can result in hefty fine …

This week we also had a major hardware failure. Last time that happened was several years ago. There are lemon cars … now I wonder if there are lemon servers.

An interesting article about the maintenance of 747s. It definitely echo the same theme of another article I linked to back on April 17. These systems just do not die. It is a very important lesson for modern equipment makers to pay attention to – it is just irresponsible to make appliances and capital equipment that do not last.

Here is a well balanced video on Canadian real estate market now and its future. I like his data driven approach. You may want to apply his methodology to analyze the real estate market in your area in case you are interested in buying or selling a property.

It is really impossible to speculate what will happen when the relief programs introduced by all these governments coming to an end. For Canada, there are more than 4.7 million Canadians receiving government support money (CERB) at $2000 every 4 weeks as of August. Canada is a country with an estimated population of 38 million people with about 22 million people in the workforce. It is 1 out of 4 people in the country receiving support payment.

There are also many full time college students getting CESB at $1250 every 4 weeks. But these special programs are going to stop by the end of August. Mortgage deferral programs the government asked the banks to provide are 6 months long. Those will end soon too.

What it means is that by September the impact of permanent job losses due to COVID19 will finally be felt. Since new businesses would not just pop up from nowhere, and that all existing businesses are in survival mode, it is going to take a long time before new job openings are created.

Similar problems for sure happening to many other countries. It is pretty clear that a global recession is coming. How to navigate through this difficult time is a tough question. Many people asked all kinds of questions on various financial decisions. It is really a matter of personal situation thus I can’t generalize the answers here.

What it looks like to me is that we are transitioning into yet another new era driven by technology. Thus “old economy” businesses will have a tough time. Technology companies enabling work from home, remote communications and secure remote access of corporate data would do very well.

But we really don’t know much about the future at this point. Hence my best advice for my readers is to stay conservative financially if possible. Reduce unnecessary spending is always a good idea. And if you are stressed out by the pandemic, read my last weekly update. There are some materials that you can learn from to cope with this.

Stay safe, keep fit and have a wonderful weekend all!