First debate of three scheduled just took place this Tuesday and we already have a taste of what is coming up. I wonder if the viewership would drop over time though as there is really nothing new or useful being discussed. Unless, of course, some super juicy conspiracy facts are exposed in coming weeks …
And now Trump declared that he tested positive with COVID, the plot thicken with even more uncertainties in coming weeks. How the stock market will react to this can be complicated because no one knows the outcome.
Someone referred me to this short video of Hugh Jackman being interviewed by an YouTuber. Either the youtuber has made a serious impression from the past, or that Hugh Jackman has a very good memory. I will let you decide.
I was asked lately by a number of people about the importance of statistics in trading. My point of view is that, before one even talk about statistics, they need to understand the difference between frequentist and Bayesian approaches. The two camps lead to distinctly different way to formulate their conjectures and inference methods. I personally do not believe that the frequentist approach works with trading and it is proven by Nassim Taleb that financial markets are all fattail animals. Here is a good short piece on the subject.
And having the correct understanding of Bayesian inference, is all more important in this post COVID world. Check out this video from Veritasium on the subject. It can help those of you who are so influenced by the reporting of daily cases to calm down and rethink about the whole situation.
Coming week I will be extremely pre-occupied by all kinds of paperwork and business chores. Better get things started now.
Have a nice weekend all!
p.s. belated Happy Mid-Autumn Festival to all of you who celebrate the occasion!
This is the quarterly option expiration week. As I explained in my past writings, the stock market behaviour during option expiration week is not the same as the other ones which often caught traders on the wrong side of the market. And it is happening again this week with people all cheering for a strong start for the week and then everything flipped upside down going into Friday. Awareness of these pattern changes can really help traders improve their performance into the next level.
I watched a good video from Veritasium on success – how luck play such an important role in our world really matters.
I came across an article about our bones being an important organ in maintaining our health. It looks like there are a lot more to research on this subject in coming years. For me, it gives me the motivation to not skipping regular exercise.
And here is an article that really mess with those of you who hate astrology so much – about the oysters and their sensitivity to the environment.
I have a lot to do this weekend so I will keep this post short.
Have a great weekend all!
Roller-coaster ride indeed for the stock market this week. Intraday swings pushing 3% almost everyday. Hope my day trading readers manage to catch some of these awesome moves!
This week I have multiple things that have to be taken care of quickly, which in turn completely messed up my original schedule. It is a challenge to get back on the rhythm when you want to sit down and do some research work yet being bombarded by emergencies one after another. Luckily the more time-sensitive works are now taken care of and I think I can get back on track to work on my more important projects.
Interesting video on mice reaction to the environment and breathing techniques to improve your cognitive functions. If you often wonder why breath work can do wonders, this video will give you a good answer.
For those of you who like playing chess, you would definitely know who Hikaru Nakamura is. As one of the strongest chess players in the world, he makes his living doing live twitch streaming. Lately, he is having fun playing with only garbage openings to rank up a new account quickly. The latest instalment of the videos shows us normal players that openings really does not matter when you are as good as Hikaru while facing “good” players.
We are seeing trees with leaves turning yellow / red already in northern part of Ontario. This summer definitely feels much shorter than last year.
Have a great weekend all!
Ontario is going for stage 3 reopening in many areas of the province today. However, the area I live in is still stuck in stage 2 so it is still difficult to organize face to face meetings. And it seems like majority of the people have accepted the new reality after months of restricted access to, well, everything. Restaurants are still not allowed to open the dine-in area. But then many of them are getting creative and use the parking lot as a patio so that they can at least take on some businesses. From what I see, these patios are all packed in the evening.
Vaccine news have been gathering all the buzz lately. Anytime some hype about a COVID-19 vaccine is announced, the stock market indices just jump higher. I am no expert in medical science but I do know that we have no vaccine for common cold. Here is a good read why there is no such vaccine.
My take is that all these efforts wasted on making vaccines for COVID-19 should be better spent on mass scale sanitization equipment. For example, Korea and Japan are working on mass scale UV light based air filtering for indoor places like malls and office buildings that can work against not only COVID-19 but all kind of viruses. Isn’t that more practical and meaningful for the long term?
Here is a video clip with Peter Thiel commented about global investment landscape. His view is always interesting and unique. This is good video for all those who care about the future.
I will spend this weekend fixing things up and reflect on the progress of various projects. Sometime it is important to take a break from intensive mental work. The brain needs to recover too.
Have a great weekend all!
I saw so many articles and news media quoting brokers that “they have never seen anything like that”, referring to the 500 points drop in Dow over last 45 minutes trading on Thursday. That is just absurd. I remember that it was no big deal back in 2008-2009. It was also nothing comparing to year 2000 dotcom bubble burst. People really have a short memory of these things …
Here is an interesting read about Magnus Carlsen, the best chess player alive, who groove around internet chess websites for fun and excitement.
A good video summing up the COVID-19 situation, watch it so that you are properly informed.
The CORVID-19 is spreading all over the globe. If your community is a high risk area, make sure you keep up with your personal hygiene routines so that you can minimize your chance of contracting the diseases. I was asked by some friends wondering if there is any Chinese herbal medicine can help in terms of prevention. There is really no magic solution so don’t fall for any scam out there.
I am experimenting with making videos myself instead of having someone else handle that. Sometimes the idea is so simple, like I am just trying to show a clip of my trading strategies working in real-time, it is much easier to assemble the video quickly and have it uploaded.
Stay safe and have a great weekend everyone!
Completed my second webinar yesterday. The explanation webinar is really long overdue but I just couldn’t do it over past 2 years. So here it is, my introduction webinar about my Real-Time Commentaries service and my approach to discretionary day trading Emini.
It took several rewrites until yesterday before I am satisfied with the presentation. It is something I know will help a lot of traders, no matter they subscribe to my service or not. Hence I make it available for free!
I came across this story posted by Tim Ferriss. Trust me, just read it.
Nassim is doing it again, interesting read about tail events and the relationship with strength training. Not that I totally agree with him, but his examples on things not related to body fitness are good reminder of the importance of paying attention to tail events when building anything that is expected to be used rigorously in the real world.
I should finally have time to wrap up the reorganization of my office. That means it is time for me to decide if I will show up in my videos. Maybe time to find an acting coach?
Until next time, have a nice weekend all!
The first real work week of year 2020 turns out to be as hectic as my schedule back in Hong Kong – long meetings with my business partners on new year goals and needs, pitching several investment opportunities to my friends with venture capital firms and family offices, and follow ups with programmers on various programming projects that must be completed this month.
It feels good to see things are getting done though. Last year was a challenging year as I tried to put in place all these foundations on automated trading for retail investors and training courses for retail traders, it takes grit for my team to see it through. I am very happy with what we have accomplished so far and I am sure year 2020 will be an amazing year.
Talking about grit, if you have not watch this video from Ted about it, you should. It is a short video from Angela Duckworth. In her own words, “Grit is the one measure that separate those who can achieve their long term goals from those who can’t.” For those of you who want to take on an ambitious goal this year, maybe you need the reminder to keep you on track.
Lately, I have been asked many times by others on whether the US stock market will see a correction. My answer is simple,”If you do not mind holding onto your long term positions with a 10 to 15 percent correction tomorrow, there is nothing to do. But if you mind or want to time the market, be ready for a market that takes full time attention from you to pull this off.”
I expect my work schedule to be very different from last year so I will have time to write on other things in this blog, not just the weekly updates. I have quite a number of requests asking me to write about other subjects from astrology to alternative medicines. I will make that happen.
People ask me why I keep writing these weekly updates. Well, it is my way to track my life so that, in retrospect, everyone can see if the 10 year and 12 year cycle are happening to me too. It is also my open journal to keep my loved ones knowing what I am up to since I may not be able to see them often given my schedule.
Good to be recovering from my sickness. One benefit from being ill is that I lose all the weight gained during the trip. So no need to figure out how to reduce those weight anymore. Just that getting a six-pack this year will still be quite far fetched … I am still hopeful!
Came across this article on using the mental technique of speaking to yourself in the third person can make you wiser. Well, it is exactly what I advocate for a long time to help traders improve their decision making ability. This technique is not something new as the article pointed out that even Julius Caesar used the method to improve his thought process.
Talking about New Year resolution – I have many projects that are yet to be completed. Given last year’s momentum, I am sure I can get quite a number of them wrapped up this year. The ones that I wanted to get done this year (in no particular order):
1. Courseware on Market Breadth Based Day Trading Strategies
2. At least 6 webinars / video lessons for DaytradingBias and the training courses
3. Release of my day trading strategies for gold future, bond future, etc.
4. Release of 2nd edition of Special Theory of Price Discovery
#4 holds very special meaning for me because having the 2nd edition released this year would be the 10th anniversary of the initial release of the first edition. I have the edited version of first edition on hand and I have already wrote like 50% more. I still feel like I have not put enough explanation there to help traders seeing the financial markets in my way, which is drastically different from the norm out there.
Very happy that I get to play these mini puzzles with my son last night. I picked up these puzzles while I was checking out the bookstores in Hong Kong. I cannot find them on Amazon though.
It used to be me who finish the puzzle in no time. Now he beats me hands down. I blame it on my presbyopia!
Happy New Year!
I finally fly back to Toronto this week right on Christmas Day. That’s the only day for which I can switch my flight to within this week. It sure looks like another pattern to me that people prefer not to travel on the Christmas day!
And the inevitable happened – I got sick. After working non-stop until the last day of the trip, getting on board a flight full of people coughing and sneezing is a very bad idea. Let’s see how long does it take for me to recover this time.
I came across this very interesting article on finding out the scientific reasons why practicing yoga or pilates can help people coping with stress.
This is the last issue of TLC Weekly Update in year 2019. I like to say thank you to all of you who take the time to read my writings. I am very grateful that I have completed several big projects this year.
I wish all of you a Prosperous New Year!
I came across this article on The Sugar Conspiracy telling us the sad story of how the modern nutrition science being all wrong thanks to power struggle and manipulation of data. I especially feel the sadness of how the scientist, John Yudkin, being persecuted by the mobs.
Someone shared this video of the Tonight Show having Gary V on wine tasting. Shortest intro on the subject that is fun to watch too. Since this is the season of drinking, maybe you want to learn a few tricks to show off to your friends.
I just posted a new article to the Defensive Money Management series on position sizing. It is the result of a lengthy conversation with some aspiring traders. As I mentioned last time, there is a very serious disconnect of correct trading concepts and the active trading crowd in Hong Kong. This new article focuses on explaining how to grow your trading business in a way that is sustainable.
I am travelling over the next few days to explore some investment opportunities. Hence the need to post early again this week. Will write about my experience after I go back to Hong Kong.
Have a great weekend everyone!