The sell in May pattern returned this year after many years of hiatus. But then traders who started trading over the past few years would take this as a something that has no place in this new era of Fed printing until it can’t. So, we got a wonder rally today taking the stock market back up to about half of the drop made earlier in the week. At this point, the stock market is not closed yet so I can’t tell which side has won the week.
Nassim Taleb came out with a new video trashing Bill Gates. Not mentioned in the video is that Gates Foundation has been doing the same in many other places for a long time. So the damage is likely done already. I would go as far as contemplating that all the so-called climate change, virus outbreak, alien invasion are all his faults …
World chess champion Magnus Carlsen did it again – he can simply look at a chess board and recall what game it was, including the players involved and in which event. Normal humans can only analyze a board to try to find out the next best move, let alone remember the exact game right after. There is a reason why he is still the world champion today.
For those of you interested in intermittent fasting (IF), check out this video by Dr. Fung. The more clarity you have, the better you will be able to stick to your plan to utilize IF as a tool to keep yourself health. My warning though is not to jump into the more difficult fast until you are comfortable with handling your hungry first. It takes time to train your body to not signal you to eat even though you do not need food yet.
This week I will need to take care of chores that I have no time to deal with over the past few weeks. Will probably grind through them at a slower pace. So much has been done this month yet I still feel like I am behind schedule.
Have a great weekend all!
Today is Non-Farm Payroll report Friday and I just can’t believe the so-called economists and Wall Street analysts could have estimated that there would be a blockbuster employment figure. Anyone I know who runs a business tells me that the young adults refused to work because of the support payment they are receiving. The shortage of young adult workers will continue until the support payment stops. It is simply human nature …
Interesting read about Tom Anderson, the co-founder of MySpace – the retro look at social media back then and now. Are we entering a new norm in politicking worldwide thanks to the power of the modern social media?
Lately I discovered that Dr. Huberman has started his own podcast at YouTube. It is great news for anyone who is interested to learn more about themselves through the lens of biology and neuroscience. Dr. Huberman has put in much effort to make these podcast understandable by normal people without the scientific training. You don’t need to watch (or listen to) everything he puts out. Pick and choose the topics you want to know more and I am sure it will be time well spent.
Some of you have email me asking why I am super busy all the time. Well, if I am just trading and do nothing else, I will have a lot of free time on hand. However, I am in the process of building my own proprietary trading firm. I am busy raising fund, interviewing coders and research assistants to help me build the company.
My goal is to grow it big like Renaissance Tech one day. Given Dr. Simons started Renaissance when he was 44 years old, and that it took him and his partners 5 years to really figure out their approach, I am in a good position to start my firm since I already have my trading framework all developed over the years. The lockdown here makes it difficult to look for office space and hiring people. Training is especially hard as many things are much easier done face to face but it makes no sense to wait until after lockdown is over.
I will work on my emails over the weekend. If you are waiting for my reply, I think I will manage to catch up with the rest of my inbox finally.
Have a great weekend all!
Another all-time-high week for the stock markets. Now that the major big tech companies all have announced their earnings, we are entering the “Sell in May and Go Away” time window. Be ready for a normal pause in the stock market this coming month. Details of the possible scenarios is already provided to my premium members. We probably need to buckle up for a more volatile market environment over the next few months.
Lately I’ve heard many idiots telling me how bad eating beef is to the environment. This is classic propaganda done by some people with very specific agenda to shape the world. Funny how people can fall for this and spread the lies without understand a word they are told?
Here is a balanced video about the subject.
Many of my friends’ parents are getting to the age with dementia issues. They have been actively looking for drugs to help their parents to slow down the problem. Trying to learn more about this, I came across an interesting read on terminal lucidity. It makes me wonder if I will suffer dementia as I grow older and how to prevent that from happening looks like a high priority for me.
All these governments ordering people to social distance, lockdown and whatsoever they see fit, have failed so miserably because they have absolutely no common sense about human behaviour. As oppose to focus on offering reasonable workarounds (e.g. tell people to start taking Vitamin D / C, injection of Vit. D to patients with symptoms, etc.) and beef up their ICU capacities when they have the luxury over the last nine months, all they are doing is wasting time. Here is a story about New York and the unintended consequence of its government telling its people what’s not allowed.
In peaceful time, when effective governments are not needed, we have the luxury to allow clowns to be elected. We even have a laugh from their dumbness too because whatever they do, it does not really matter. However, in time of crisis, it is these clowns who will destroy people’s lives …
I hope this crisis will soon be over but I suspect that it will not due to extensive vaccination. Here is a video talking about what is now known and what to expect to happen soon. The sad scenario suggested by this doctor implies that we will see massive dying in coming years due to the inability of those who is in charge at understanding nature. I suspect this video will be removed soon so watch it while you can.
Too many complains from me this week. Time to get back to work.
Have a great weekend all!
What a roller coaster ride for the stock markets this week. S&P started the week dropping 2% and then magically rallied all the way back up. Yet, after Biden’s capital gain tax announcement, the whole recovery was wiped out once again. Today, we are witnessing the true animal spirit of the bulls who bravely push the stock market back up all the way again. Just like cats with nine lives, this bull market has proven once again it is not ready to die.
I came across this piece about two entrepreneurs taking on McDonald’s and its ice cream machine supplier. My first reaction after reading the whole article is that monopoly can exist not because of someone has a better technology or secret formula. It can also exist when those people in charge do not have the desire to improve customer experience.
If you are into first person flying experience, you may want to check out this amazing drone. Looking at it, the drone technology has really matured over the past few years. I am itching to get one too.
As someone who eat a lot of eggs and like eating eggs, this video proves what I suspected for a long time that not all eggs are equal. More importantly, the nutrition level in the eggs varies a lot but the so-called organic eggs from large companies are no better than their non-organic ones. If you pay attention enough to eat these eggs as-is, you can figure out which ones are better by their taste and texture.
I scheduled this weekend to clear my backlog of emails. For those of you waiting for my reply over the past few weeks, I will do my best to get back to you.
Have a great weekend all!
Another week of record new all time high for S&P500 but not quite with Dow and Nasdaq 100. This is definitely an environment that we rarely seen in the past. As far as I remember from my long trading career, this is the second time we see this all-time-high phenomenon. Last time it was the end of year 1999 to the beginning of year 2000.
I warned in my newsletter for my premium members that this year we are going to see problems with essentials. Here is a video from a youtuber contractor telling us how bad things have been with the renovation / construction materials. Things will go way worse before it gets better.
Unlike a growth driven inflation, what we are experiencing is a supply side limitation-driven price hiking. There is no limit to how far such price rising wave will go. It all depends on how desperate the buyers are. If this continues for a long time, it will damage the internals of a economy beyond repair.
I just watched another video from DoubleLine talking to Louis Gave of Gavekal Research. Mr. Gave has unique insights about the long term economic changes that will affect everyone who have an investment portfolio.
A very interesting video about Ireland’s Vitamin D report. For those of you who are told by MDs that you do not need Vitamin D supplement, it is important for you to watch it.
Since it is the beginning of a quarter, I have a lot of paperwork to catch up on. This is also the tax filing season for Canadians. Getting all these accounting work done and then I will be able to relax, say, for an afternoon, before getting back to work on other pressing tasks.
Have a great weekend all!
This week the stock markets worldwide zoom in to just one thing – the spike in US T-notes yield rate. It dropped a bit below 1.5%, we got that Monday mega rally. The next day it edged higher to 1.5% again, Nasdaq 100 higher flyers all hammered. And then yesterday Powell said nothing to calm people down, next thing we know yield just spike through the roof and collapsed S&P back below year 2020 close. Watching the markets move feels like watching a drunk doing all sorts of crazy things.
Got to wonder by next Friday will the markets remember what happened this week.
I watched a video about Turkey’s real estate trouble. The trouble there looks to me already happening everywhere else. Real estate investors should pay attention about this.
I came across this video recommended to me by a friend on tendon training. He is so surprised that what is said in the video confirms what I told him decades ago that the classic martial art training if done correctly it does not focus on training your muscles but your tendons. Sometimes it is important to not slap the words of “not scientific” on things you do not understand. I have seen first hand how one of these very old master martial artists with a thin and flimsy frame who can punch lightly and destroy a concrete wall …
No magic. No tricks. Pure hard work over several decades.
And obviously his disciples could not achieve the same level of power due to “demand of modern life”.
Jordan Peterson’s new book Beyond 12 Rules for Life is just released. Accompanying that, of course, are internet media exposure in place of the old world book tour. One of the conversations that stands out and worth watching the whole thing is the one Peterson did with Tom Bilyeu. The conversation leads to interesting explanation by Peterson on several psychology concepts that would take years to learn. Be warned – it is two hours long.
I am extremely busy working on multiple fronts and that stalled my effort on producing videos / short lectures for my trading courses. I can foresee that by end of March my marathon push to setup my prop trading firm will reach the milestone of completing the work on laying out the foundation. There will be few mundane tasks left and back to a more regular schedule to focus on research and development. I will then be able to pick up from where I left off on producing the videos.
Have a great weekend all!
Today is last trading day of January. While I am writing this the trading day has not ended yet but what a fight between the bulls and the bears. What many people do not realize is that brokerage firms almost always want January to close positively so that they can lure the investors into doing some business with them. i.e. the January effect.
The line in the sand is the 2020 year close. All morning S&P500 was trying to defend that price but failed to do so by lunch hour. I wonder if they will succeed later today?
I came across this video talking about “negative ion” products. Make sure you check it out to avoid these items because they can inflict serious harm. I am glad that I came across the video because I am a sucker at trying out novel health products …
For those of you who wonder why we experienced the GameStop fever and started to question whether stock market is functional, check this video out. Mr. Meldrum provided the most complete explanation of what happened to these fever stocks. I like to add that the selling of orderflow data by firms like Robinhood to HFT firms also add to the mess.
However, it is not something new at all. At the end, it is always those who board the train unprepared will be hurt the most. So know what kind of game you are getting into before jumping in.
Watch this video from CNBC on Chamath Palihapitiya’s take on the whole fiasco.
I am working on so many things lately it feels like I am running out of time everyday. Maybe I can slow down a bit once I resolve several technical issues with my automated trading. I will definitely write about that for my daytradingbias.com premium members because it is a very serious issue that can affect their trading.
Some readers keep asking for an update of the Big Game Hunter ES performance. I have downloaded the statements and have someone taking care of the performance summary. I will post it in the company blog later today.
I guess that’s it for the week.
Have a great weekend all!
Holiday mode all week watching the stock markets trying to levitate higher just like the past. However, thanks to the deal or no deal drama with the US stimulus package, the whole world has to wait for the inferior actors and actresses in Washington done with their posturing …
I was so busy all year that I have decided to take a short break this week to tidy up my place and cook a turkey. I haven’t cook one for a few years. I am not sure if I still remember how to do it right but who cares. It is time to enjoy the holidays.
Another history lesson I learned lately – what caused the sudden collapse of the Mayan Empire.
For those of you who are at least middle age, you may want to pay attention about this. The everyday stresses you put onto yourself can cause lasting damage to your brain. No wonder I find many people not able to remember anything just one day after an important meeting. Well, I don’t take chances and take notes right after all meetings so that I don’t need to remember anything at all.
For those of you who want a lift you up video, enjoy some latest videos from Ryan Reynolds. I guess he is really making advertisement enjoyable.
Got to go. Need to work on the turkey. It takes several hours to cook the bird.
Today is Friday the 13th. Famous for handing out chaos and troubles. Well, the whole week was a mess for the financial markets thanks to Pfizer’s vaccine announcement spiked the stock markets much higher. And then everyone learnt that its CEO filed to unload most of his holdings of the company. Talking about sarcasms …
With the hanging issue of US election, everyone I talked to are as confused as I am about the near term outlook of the financial markets. A weekend break is much needed to reflect on all these latest developments. Some friends of mind are talking about using psychedelics this weekend to clear their minds. For those of you interested in New Age stuff, here is a piece on DMT trip … interesting I must say.
And for astrology fans, or just astronomy enthusiasts, the last Jupiter Pluto conjunction in this year just happened on Nov 12th. It will not happen again until Feb 4, 2033. That’s 13 years away. I am not sure what this signify. I hope, though, that it implies COVID-19 is over.
Someone sent this video to me on making a simple toy. This can be a fun project for kids and adults alike. Enjoy!
I am kind of re-reading a book I have. “Kind of” because it is a different edition. The book is The Most Important Thing Illuminated by Howard Marks. This edition has additional comments from other people and the author himself. It is a great book for anyone interested in longer term investing.
So much work to get done before the year end. I guess no holiday break for me this year.
Have a nice weekend all!
First debate of three scheduled just took place this Tuesday and we already have a taste of what is coming up. I wonder if the viewership would drop over time though as there is really nothing new or useful being discussed. Unless, of course, some super juicy conspiracy facts are exposed in coming weeks …
And now Trump declared that he tested positive with COVID, the plot thicken with even more uncertainties in coming weeks. How the stock market will react to this can be complicated because no one knows the outcome.
Someone referred me to this short video of Hugh Jackman being interviewed by an YouTuber. Either the youtuber has made a serious impression from the past, or that Hugh Jackman has a very good memory. I will let you decide.
I was asked lately by a number of people about the importance of statistics in trading. My point of view is that, before one even talk about statistics, they need to understand the difference between frequentist and Bayesian approaches. The two camps lead to distinctly different way to formulate their conjectures and inference methods. I personally do not believe that the frequentist approach works with trading and it is proven by Nassim Taleb that financial markets are all fattail animals. Here is a good short piece on the subject.
And having the correct understanding of Bayesian inference, is all more important in this post COVID world. Check out this video from Veritasium on the subject. It can help those of you who are so influenced by the reporting of daily cases to calm down and rethink about the whole situation.
Coming week I will be extremely pre-occupied by all kinds of paperwork and business chores. Better get things started now.
Have a nice weekend all!
p.s. belated Happy Mid-Autumn Festival to all of you who celebrate the occasion!