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TLC Weekly Update April 9, 2021

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Another week of record new all time high for S&P500 but not quite with Dow and Nasdaq 100. This is definitely an environment that we rarely seen in the past. As far as I remember from my long trading career, this is the second time we see this all-time-high phenomenon. Last time it was the end of year 1999 to the beginning of year 2000.

I warned in my newsletter for my premium members that this year we are going to see problems with essentials. Here is a video from a youtuber contractor telling us how bad things have been with the renovation / construction materials. Things will go way worse before it gets better.

Unlike a growth driven inflation, what we are experiencing is a supply side limitation-driven price hiking. There is no limit to how far such price rising wave will go. It all depends on how desperate the buyers are. If this continues for a long time, it will damage the internals of a economy beyond repair.

I just watched another video from DoubleLine talking to Louis Gave of Gavekal Research. Mr. Gave has unique insights about the long term economic changes that will affect everyone who have an investment portfolio.

A very interesting video about Ireland’s Vitamin D report. For those of you who are told by MDs that you do not need Vitamin D supplement, it is important for you to watch it.

Since it is the beginning of a quarter, I have a lot of paperwork to catch up on. This is also the tax filing season for Canadians. Getting all these accounting work done and then I will be able to relax, say, for an afternoon, before getting back to work on other pressing tasks.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update March 5, 2021

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This week the stock markets worldwide zoom in to just one thing – the spike in US T-notes yield rate. It dropped a bit below 1.5%, we got that Monday mega rally. The next day it edged higher to 1.5% again, Nasdaq 100 higher flyers all hammered. And then yesterday Powell said nothing to calm people down, next thing we know yield just spike through the roof and collapsed S&P back below year 2020 close. Watching the markets move feels like watching a drunk doing all sorts of crazy things.

Got to wonder by next Friday will the markets remember what happened this week.

I watched a video about Turkey’s real estate trouble. The trouble there looks to me already happening everywhere else. Real estate investors should pay attention about this.

I came across this video recommended to me by a friend on tendon training. He is so surprised that what is said in the video confirms what I told him decades ago that the classic martial art training if done correctly it does not focus on training your muscles but your tendons. Sometimes it is important to not slap the words of “not scientific” on things you do not understand. I have seen first hand how one of these very old master martial artists with a thin and flimsy frame who can punch lightly and destroy a concrete wall …

No magic. No tricks. Pure hard work over several decades.

And obviously his disciples could not achieve the same level of power due to “demand of modern life”.

Jordan Peterson’s new book Beyond 12 Rules for Life is just released. Accompanying that, of course, are internet media exposure in place of the old world book tour. One of the conversations that stands out and worth watching the whole thing is the one Peterson did with Tom Bilyeu. The conversation leads to interesting explanation by Peterson on several psychology concepts that would take years to learn. Be warned – it is two hours long.

I am extremely busy working on multiple fronts and that stalled my effort on producing videos / short lectures for my trading courses. I can foresee that by end of March my marathon push to setup my prop trading firm will reach the milestone of completing the work on laying out the foundation. There will be few mundane tasks left and back to a more regular schedule to focus on research and development. I will then be able to pick up from where I left off on producing the videos.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update January 29, 2021

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Today is last trading day of January. While I am writing this the trading day has not ended yet but what a fight between the bulls and the bears. What many people do not realize is that brokerage firms almost always want January to close positively so that they can lure the investors into doing some business with them. i.e. the January effect.

The line in the sand is the 2020 year close. All morning S&P500 was trying to defend that price but failed to do so by lunch hour. I wonder if they will succeed later today?

I came across this video talking about “negative ion” products. Make sure you check it out to avoid these items because they can inflict serious harm. I am glad that I came across the video because I am a sucker at trying out novel health products …

For those of you who wonder why we experienced the GameStop fever and started to question whether stock market is functional, check this video out. Mr. Meldrum provided the most complete explanation of what happened to these fever stocks. I like to add that the selling of orderflow data by firms like Robinhood to HFT firms also add to the mess.

However, it is not something new at all. At the end, it is always those who board the train unprepared will be hurt the most. So know what kind of game you are getting into before jumping in.

Watch this video from CNBC on Chamath Palihapitiya’s take on the whole fiasco.

I am working on so many things lately it feels like I am running out of time everyday. Maybe I can slow down a bit once I resolve several technical issues with my automated trading. I will definitely write about that for my daytradingbias.com premium members because it is a very serious issue that can affect their trading.

Some readers keep asking for an update of the Big Game Hunter ES performance. I have downloaded the statements and have someone taking care of the performance summary. I will post it in the company blog later today.

I guess that’s it for the week.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update December 25, 2020

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Holiday mode all week watching the stock markets trying to levitate higher just like the past. However, thanks to the deal or no deal drama with the US stimulus package, the whole world has to wait for the inferior actors and actresses in Washington done with their posturing …

I was so busy all year that I have decided to take a short break this week to tidy up my place and cook a turkey. I haven’t cook one for a few years. I am not sure if I still remember how to do it right but who cares. It is time to enjoy the holidays.

Another history lesson I learned lately – what caused the sudden collapse of the Mayan Empire.

For those of you who are at least middle age, you may want to pay attention about this. The everyday stresses you put onto yourself can cause lasting damage to your brain. No wonder I find many people not able to remember anything just one day after an important meeting. Well, I don’t take chances and take notes right after all meetings so that I don’t need to remember anything at all.

For those of you who want a lift you up video, enjoy some latest videos from Ryan Reynolds. I guess he is really making advertisement enjoyable.

Got to go. Need to work on the turkey. It takes several hours to cook the bird.

Merry Christmas!

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TLC Weekly Update November 13, 2020

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Today is Friday the 13th. Famous for handing out chaos and troubles. Well, the whole week was a mess for the financial markets thanks to Pfizer’s vaccine announcement spiked the stock markets much higher. And then everyone learnt that its CEO filed to unload most of his holdings of the company. Talking about sarcasms …

With the hanging issue of US election, everyone I talked to are as confused as I am about the near term outlook of the financial markets. A weekend break is much needed to reflect on all these latest developments. Some friends of mind are talking about using psychedelics this weekend to clear their minds. For those of you interested in New Age stuff, here is a piece on DMT trip … interesting I must say.

And for astrology fans, or just astronomy enthusiasts, the last Jupiter Pluto conjunction in this year just happened on Nov 12th. It will not happen again until Feb 4, 2033. That’s 13 years away. I am not sure what this signify. I hope, though, that it implies COVID-19 is over.

Someone sent this video to me on making a simple toy. This can be a fun project for kids and adults alike. Enjoy!

I am kind of re-reading a book I have. “Kind of” because it is a different edition. The book is The Most Important Thing Illuminated by Howard Marks. This edition has additional comments from other people and the author himself. It is a great book for anyone interested in longer term investing.

So much work to get done before the year end. I guess no holiday break for me this year.

Have a nice weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update October 2, 2020

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First debate of three scheduled just took place this Tuesday and we already have a taste of what is coming up. I wonder if the viewership would drop over time though as there is really nothing new or useful being discussed. Unless, of course, some super juicy conspiracy facts are exposed in coming weeks …

And now Trump declared that he tested positive with COVID, the plot thicken with even more uncertainties in coming weeks. How the stock market will react to this can be complicated because no one knows the outcome.

Someone referred me to this short video of Hugh Jackman being interviewed by an YouTuber. Either the youtuber has made a serious impression from the past, or that Hugh Jackman has a very good memory. I will let you decide.

I was asked lately by a number of people about the importance of statistics in trading. My point of view is that, before one even talk about statistics, they need to understand the difference between frequentist and Bayesian approaches. The two camps lead to distinctly different way to formulate their conjectures and inference methods. I personally do not believe that the frequentist approach works with trading and it is proven by Nassim Taleb that financial markets are all fattail animals. Here is a good short piece on the subject.

And having the correct understanding of Bayesian inference, is all more important in this post COVID world. Check out this video from Veritasium on the subject. It can help those of you who are so influenced by the reporting of daily cases to calm down and rethink about the whole situation.

Coming week I will be extremely pre-occupied by all kinds of paperwork and business chores. Better get things started now.

Have a nice weekend all!

p.s. belated Happy Mid-Autumn Festival to all of you who celebrate the occasion!

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TLC Weekly Update September 18, 2020

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This is the quarterly option expiration week. As I explained in my past writings, the stock market behaviour during option expiration week is not the same as the other ones which often caught traders on the wrong side of the market. And it is happening again this week with people all cheering for a strong start for the week and then everything flipped upside down going into Friday. Awareness of these pattern changes can really help traders improve their performance into the next level.

I watched a good video from Veritasium on success – how luck play such an important role in our world really matters.

I came across an article about our bones being an important organ in maintaining our health. It looks like there are a lot more to research on this subject in coming years. For me, it gives me the motivation to not skipping regular exercise.

And here is an article that really mess with those of you who hate astrology so much – about the oysters and their sensitivity to the environment.

I have a lot to do this weekend so I will keep this post short.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update September 11, 2020

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Roller-coaster ride indeed for the stock market this week. Intraday swings pushing 3% almost everyday. Hope my day trading readers manage to catch some of these awesome moves!

This week I have multiple things that have to be taken care of quickly, which in turn completely messed up my original schedule. It is a challenge to get back on the rhythm when you want to sit down and do some research work yet being bombarded by emergencies one after another. Luckily the more time-sensitive works are now taken care of and I think I can get back on track to work on my more important projects.

Interesting video on mice reaction to the environment and breathing techniques to improve your cognitive functions. If you often wonder why breath work can do wonders, this video will give you a good answer.

For those of you who like playing chess, you would definitely know who Hikaru Nakamura is. As one of the strongest chess players in the world, he makes his living doing live twitch streaming. Lately, he is having fun playing with only garbage openings to rank up a new account quickly. The latest instalment of the videos shows us normal players that openings really does not matter when you are as good as Hikaru while facing “good” players.

We are seeing trees with leaves turning yellow / red already in northern part of Ontario. This summer definitely feels much shorter than last year.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update July 17, 2020

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Ontario is going for stage 3 reopening in many areas of the province today. However, the area I live in is still stuck in stage 2 so it is still difficult to organize face to face meetings. And it seems like majority of the people have accepted the new reality after months of restricted access to, well, everything. Restaurants are still not allowed to open the dine-in area. But then many of them are getting creative and use the parking lot as a patio so that they can at least take on some businesses. From what I see, these patios are all packed in the evening.

Vaccine news have been gathering all the buzz lately. Anytime some hype about a COVID-19 vaccine is announced, the stock market indices just jump higher. I am no expert in medical science but I do know that we have no vaccine for common cold. Here is a good read why there is no such vaccine.

My take is that all these efforts wasted on making vaccines for COVID-19 should be better spent on mass scale sanitization equipment. For example, Korea and Japan are working on mass scale UV light based air filtering for indoor places like malls and office buildings that can work against not only COVID-19 but all kind of viruses. Isn’t that more practical and meaningful for the long term?

Here is a video clip with Peter Thiel commented about global investment landscape. His view is always interesting and unique. This is good video for all those who care about the future.

I will spend this weekend fixing things up and reflect on the progress of various projects. Sometime it is important to take a break from intensive mental work. The brain needs to recover too.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update February 28, 2020

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I saw so many articles and news media quoting brokers that “they have never seen anything like that”, referring to the 500 points drop in Dow over last 45 minutes trading on Thursday. That is just absurd. I remember that it was no big deal back in 2008-2009. It was also nothing comparing to year 2000 dotcom bubble burst. People really have a short memory of these things …

Here is an interesting read about Magnus Carlsen, the best chess player alive, who groove around internet chess websites for fun and excitement.

A good video summing up the COVID-19 situation, watch it so that you are properly informed.

The CORVID-19 is spreading all over the globe. If your community is a high risk area, make sure you keep up with your personal hygiene routines so that you can minimize your chance of contracting the diseases. I was asked by some friends wondering if there is any Chinese herbal medicine can help in terms of prevention. There is really no magic solution so don’t fall for any scam out there.

I am experimenting with making videos myself instead of having someone else handle that. Sometimes the idea is so simple, like I am just trying to show a clip of my trading strategies working in real-time, it is much easier to assemble the video quickly and have it uploaded.

Stay safe and have a great weekend everyone!