Author: Lawrence Chan

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TLC Weekly Update February 5, 2021

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Another wild ride in the stock market this Non-Farm Payroll week. Majority of the bears must be questioning their existence due to the melt up style rally all week giving us yet another all time high in S&P500 and Nasdaq 100.

Well, this deal or no deal dynamics of the stimulus package has been affecting the stock market ever since last quarter. Whenever a bigger deal is promised, stock market jumps higher. Whenever there is rumor of no deal, the stock market jumps even higher because a deal is imminent.

Now that today US Senate approved the package and US Congress has the ability to pass it easily … it will be interesting to see if we get “buy the rumor, sell the news” effect.

I am not sure about you, but I did indeed dropped my cellphone into water more than once. This article provides some good tips on how to deal with the unfortunate event.

For the sake of fun, I watched this video on machines peeling eggs … very interesting. I was searching for automation related videos and this one shows up … maybe I should be more specific with my search.

And this video show up when I search for building things manually … it is a long documentary video that you do not need to watch it from the beginning to the very end. This kid is just amazing. He is probably one of those who can survive WW3.

This weekend I have to reorganize my computers and doing some hardware upgrades. Given my luck lately, things probably will not work out as expected. I will take it slow so that I will not mess things up. After all, it is Mercury retrograde from Jan 30 to Feb 21, for those of you who are into astrology stuff.

After taking care of the hardware, there are tons of paperwork waiting for me. I guess there is no break this weekend.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update January 29, 2021

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Today is last trading day of January. While I am writing this the trading day has not ended yet but what a fight between the bulls and the bears. What many people do not realize is that brokerage firms almost always want January to close positively so that they can lure the investors into doing some business with them. i.e. the January effect.

The line in the sand is the 2020 year close. All morning S&P500 was trying to defend that price but failed to do so by lunch hour. I wonder if they will succeed later today?

I came across this video talking about “negative ion” products. Make sure you check it out to avoid these items because they can inflict serious harm. I am glad that I came across the video because I am a sucker at trying out novel health products …

For those of you who wonder why we experienced the GameStop fever and started to question whether stock market is functional, check this video out. Mr. Meldrum provided the most complete explanation of what happened to these fever stocks. I like to add that the selling of orderflow data by firms like Robinhood to HFT firms also add to the mess.

However, it is not something new at all. At the end, it is always those who board the train unprepared will be hurt the most. So know what kind of game you are getting into before jumping in.

Watch this video from CNBC on Chamath Palihapitiya’s take on the whole fiasco.

I am working on so many things lately it feels like I am running out of time everyday. Maybe I can slow down a bit once I resolve several technical issues with my automated trading. I will definitely write about that for my daytradingbias.com premium members because it is a very serious issue that can affect their trading.

Some readers keep asking for an update of the Big Game Hunter ES performance. I have downloaded the statements and have someone taking care of the performance summary. I will post it in the company blog later today.

I guess that’s it for the week.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update January 22, 2021

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Another week started with extreme events and ended up with almost nothing serious happened. It looks like the transition into a new four year cycle has finally begun. It will be very interesting to see how the world reacts to the storm of executive orders from the new US president.

Due to the continuous lockdown, I need to find more space at home for getting work done. Traditionally, Chinese people like to tidy up their home before Chinese New Year and I am one of them thanks to learning the habit from my parents. Let’s see how much garbage I can throw away this year.

Here is an astrology tidbit – for those of you who think that Chinese New Year is February 12th this year, think again. February 12th is the first new moon of the year of the Ox. The official Chinese new year is always between February 2nd to 5th. This year that day is the 3rd.

To simplify what I said above – year of the Ox starts on Feb 3, 2021.

My quest on studying history continues and I bumped into this very interesting story of a stock market crash that happened in Shanghai in 1910. And for those of you who can read or listen to Chinese, you can watch this video instead.

For those of you interested in chess, here is a video about the game between Bill Gates and Magnus Carlsen back in 2014. Enjoy!

I find it getting more and more difficult to make any meaningful comments (or open discussion) on current events without triggering the mobs to cancel your video or your website from being searchable by Google, etc. I have some content that I am advised to not posting them in the current environment. It looks like the only alternative is to keep all the content inside the membership area to avoid future trouble.

Here is an article illustrating how the media can influence the public opinion en masse – how Einstein’s Theory turned into a sensation back in the days.

Time to roll up my sleeves and start cleaning.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update January 15, 2021

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A relatively calm trading week after what happened last week. Yet it still ended with wild swings thanks to monthly option expiration today. Next week is POTUS inauguration. I guess many traders would love to time warp to the week after.

We are having a more restrictive lockdown in Ontario starting this week. We were told that we should stay at home unless we really need to go out. I find it funny though that the province owned liquor stores are deemed essential service and stays open throughout the whole crisis.

I continue to work hard on my various research projects but due to multiple equipment problems progress is slowed down quite a bit. I find it interesting that this type of problems usually cluster together once every few years. Maybe it has something to do with the astrology setup in the sky. LOL …

A fun read about a gentlemen’s bet made 25 years ago about the future of the world. The hostility of the “journalist” against the “novelist” is very obvious. After reading the article I am amazed that the bet was even made. Just think – if the novelist is correct, there is nothing left for him to collect!

My research on history landed me on this amusing cooking video of medieval monks. I am not that interested in sweet stuff but the stories he tells in the video are good. Enjoy!

After I watched the cooking video, somehow youtube showed me this video on how SPAM is made. I always wonder why SPAM can command a much higher price comparing to other “luncheon meat”. I have a better idea now.

I will probably write an article for my series, My Journey to Fully Automate My Trading. It is a good time to reflect on what I learned over the past year.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update January 8, 2021

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US electoral dispute is now over. But we are left with more questions than answers on the future of United States. Given how ugly this 2020 election has become, I can’t imagine what will happen by mid term 2022 …

Luckily I am just a Canadian. Canada being such an unimportant country, its political dramas do not lead to any meaningful impact on the world. This makes me feel much better during our elections.

Here is an older article about human brain’s approach to process sensory information. The article came out back in Oct 2019. This understanding of the human brain has helped computer scientists to breakthrough many of their problems in AI last year. So not everything happening last year was bad.

For some mysterious reason, youtube chose to put this on my front page. It turns out to be a charming video that I watched years ago.

I forgot to mention that I finally stopped my 20+ years habit of writing down notes on notepads some 2-3 weeks ago. I took the leap of faith to replace my written notepads with Samsung Galaxy Tab S6 Lite. It takes some adjustments to my routine but I can tell you after 2 weeks of notes taking on the tablet, I will never go back to pen and paper.

I chose this tablet over other options because of the included software for notes taking is better than ipad and ipad pro. I can now easily include clips by taking a picture using the tablet, or taking a screenshot from the browser. But most important of all, I no longer need to find space to store even more notepads.

I picked up a Rubik’s cube over the holiday with the intention to practice my cube solving skill. Then I found this on youtube. I want that cube!

I was asked by many friends about my year 2021 outlook. I will summarize the main points here. Some are technical view based on market data. Some are astrology based projections. And some are just wild imaginations. Consider this a mocking of all the predictions people made for 2021.

  • shortage of food and essentials
  • worldwide cargo transportation cost going much higher
  • interest rate goes up
  • civil unrest everywhere
  • a real pandemic will arrive that reduce global population by 10%
  • major earth quake happening somewhere
  • aliens finally public broadcast their existence among us
  • gold to crash 50% in a year or two
  • bitcoin to crash 80% in a year or two
  • aliens giving us warp drive and unlimited energy technology

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update January 1, 2020

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Holiday season coming to an end this week with the US stock markets closing at all time high on the last trading day of 2020. Who would have thought this is the outcome of COVID-19?

A epiphany came to me yesterday that it should not be a surprise. Back in 1987, the first stock market crash the US Federal Reserve had to deal with, it was caught by surprise and reacted to the situation carefully. Back then, the US Fed held the belief that they should not interfere with the free markets.

Since then, every financial crisis had resulted in the Fed reacting to the situations more quickly. And the amount of money being thrown behind each crisis gets bigger and bigger. The belief of the Fed has clearly changed from non-interference to central planning. There is no more deliberation within the Fed whether they should react to a situation or not.

At this point Fed will answer to all major and minor economic issues with automatic money pumping.

But isn’t central planning a “feature” of communism that the United States claims to be the root of all evil?

The Fed sees no consequence from their actions. However, normal people around the world are feeling the consequence everyday. The wealth gap has grown so much many people are now debt slaves. Isn’t this the cause of almost all the revolutions in human history?

What I worry about most, however, is something else. All the past crisis were singular events spaced out by at least 2 to 3 years. They hit the financial system hard but we have time for people to adapt and recover. What if the frequency of these events increases significantly? Would money pumping still work?

Talking about unintended consequence, here is a piece of local news that I am sure this problem is happening everywhere in the world. Kids with no supervision … you really believe they would not cheat?

Here is an interesting read on the work of a mathematician turned biologist. What I liked most is that patterns can emerge everywhere without the participants knowing. Stock market is a prime example – everyone are guessing and many traders just cannot see beyond their own point of view. In aggregate, recurring patterns emerge from their actions.

And this piece makes me thinking … special organizations would definitely create their next generation operatives with no finger print now that someone have figured out the DNA signature.

Taking a break today and will back to normal schedule tomorrow.

Wish you all a Happy New Year!

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TLC Weekly Update December 25, 2020

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Holiday mode all week watching the stock markets trying to levitate higher just like the past. However, thanks to the deal or no deal drama with the US stimulus package, the whole world has to wait for the inferior actors and actresses in Washington done with their posturing …

I was so busy all year that I have decided to take a short break this week to tidy up my place and cook a turkey. I haven’t cook one for a few years. I am not sure if I still remember how to do it right but who cares. It is time to enjoy the holidays.

Another history lesson I learned lately – what caused the sudden collapse of the Mayan Empire.

For those of you who are at least middle age, you may want to pay attention about this. The everyday stresses you put onto yourself can cause lasting damage to your brain. No wonder I find many people not able to remember anything just one day after an important meeting. Well, I don’t take chances and take notes right after all meetings so that I don’t need to remember anything at all.

For those of you who want a lift you up video, enjoy some latest videos from Ryan Reynolds. I guess he is really making advertisement enjoyable.

Got to go. Need to work on the turkey. It takes several hours to cook the bird.

Merry Christmas!

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TLC Weekly Update December 18, 2020

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Last option expiration week of the year is now finally over. The rest of the year are filled with holidays so majority of the traders will not be trading. I wonder how many trading bots are aware of this and avoid trading too.

The other day my son showed me a game he’s playing online. It is a form of tower defense with several twists to make it appealing to gamers. Similar to all the other latest online games, it is free to play with extra items that one can pay for. I ended up digging out some old research on the economics of these games which explained that they make money by exploiting a form of human defect. Interesting.

In the spirit of the holiday season, here is a video on an animal letter opener.

One of the most messed up political drama this year is definitely Brexit agreement negotiation. Seriously, just watch this video and you will understand completely why there can never be any progress with the Brexit negotiation. Yet another example of politicians love wasting other people’s money …

It is time for me to slow down a bit, do some planning for next year and find inspirations from leisure reading.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update December 11, 2020

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Another interesting trading week almost over with all eyes on next week’s US electoral vote event (Monday, Dec 14) that may result in some shocking twists and turns. All these states filed their cases with the US supreme court may not impact the outcome though. But what if they do? I can’t imagine the mess we are going to see …

This is the time of the year people start to read up the astrology predictions for the coming year. One recurring talk about Dec 14 and Dec 21 this year keeps coming up. The other funny one is the talk about Mayan end of the world year was not 2012 but 2021. I am not a believer in astrology based on Zodiac birth month. It is still fun to read and watch astrologers, both experts and pretend ones, making forecast about people’s future.

I just learned about Russia’s organic food industry and I am very fascinated that how long will it take US to condemn all organic food because it is mostly imported from Russia.

My research on history for some mysterious reason landed me on this story about the evolution of bats. It is a good read though.

A good video by Yahoo Finance asking Paul Tudor Jones his view of the market. It is a short video packed with good info and his thoughts about the stock market may surprise you.

I am writing my 2021 business plan at the moment. After a year of total chaos and surprises, I have so much to add to my usual contingency plan. Trying to anticipate what has never happened in our own life time is difficult. Hence the research into past history to see what can happen and how that impact the economy and our lives becomes very useful.

For example, what if we have another major power outage like year 2003. Or that something like Ebola, instead of COVID-19, is spreading worldwide. The goal is to figure out what has to be done so that I will not react to these crisis level situations unprepared.

And of course, end of the year is a good time to clean out the junk. I finally have to throw away my trusted Samsung all-in-one printer / scanner. It served me well for over 10 years. Over the years, its drum died first, so I could not use it as a printer but I still keep it as a scanner. Then the scanner cover broke last time I moved so all it can do was doing autofeed scanning. And now its autofeeder gave in.

So after all, I ended up buying something this holiday season. Like it or not, life is a series of surprises.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update December 4, 2020

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This Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) week has surprised many people who keep talking about how overpriced the stock market is while all week the market just levitated to stay near all time high. Can’t blame them. Normal people, which include majority of the traders, do not pay attention to the obvious bullish biases during NFP weeks. It is a good thing for those who are aware of it and act on it.

Holiday season now in force so trading volume should be reduced somewhat. However, given the uncertainty of the US election still hanging around, I don’t know if the traditional Christmas rally can happen in a normal way like the past. Well, what’s normal this year at all?

Interesting read about the Donut King, there are lessons we can all learn from this story. From rags to riches once we all heard of but twice, makes it all more interesting.

This touching story about old couples who have to face the hard decision to send their loved ones to nursing home or palliative care is a problem many of us have to face eventually. From my personal experience and also shared knowledge from close friends, it gets harder if you are old and frail yourself as the caregiver. It is important to ask for help when you are exhausted and feeling hopeless.

I came across an interesting video talking about the discovery of how Ancient Egyptian sounds like. I wonder if they really got it right, or, like what most economists do, that everything they do are just pure guessing.

Here in Toronto the lockdown has escalated and a new trend has emerged. People are moving to houses in small towns outside of Toronto. It is like a mass exodus thanks to the technology we have available nowadays making it possible to work from home. These small town house prices have skyrocketed some 15-20% in a few short months while Toronto downtown core condo prices dropped 10-15% overall. This is a price shock event that will take time to absorb.

I reached a major milestone with my trading venture for which the automated day trading model I envisioned some two years ago is now mostly completed. It covers about 80% of the strategies I deem important. Looking back, if I did not made the decision to aim higher, this would never happen. Doing this while the stock markets going through its craziest time was a tough challenge. It also makes it much more satisfying.

For my trading venture, having the first model completed is just the first step, although a very important step. From here my team will have to expand on what I have accomplished and expand the research and development work across many more markets. It will be even more challenging when we start to tackle markets we are not familiar with. Can’t wait to see what we will accomplish in year 2021!

Have a great weekend all!