Author: Lawrence Chan

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TLC Weekly Update May 8, 2020

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A busy week of catching up with emails, closing deals and writing scripts for my video lessons. Been a productive week except that I can’t exercise much due to shoulder pain. The pain had finally subsided so I guess I can get back to training slowly.

We are looking at potential re-opening soon in US and Canada. However, I doubt that after weeks of programming, the old normal may not return for a long time. One factor that affects people much is being cash strapped due to being layoff. Many businesses are not coming back. How to address this issue should be of highest priority for the governments worldwide.

A very disturbing article on an innocent man who spent most of his live in jail for a crime he never committed. Read it and you will be in awe too. How can all these people with the proper authority, knowing this man is innocent, yet did nothing to get him out?

The complete disconnect of the US stock market from reality drives many readers email me with questions like did they missed the bottom already or that should they short this rally, etc. Well, I suggest watching this video with Sam Zell talking about the post-virus economy. You will gain some insight about the new world we are going to face post COVID-19.

For all of you mothers out there, Happy Mother’s Day!

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TLC Weekly Update May 1, 2020

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After weeks of struggle fending off hackers and crazy crawler robots on daytradingbias website, my team finally got the necessary hardware upgrades needed to deal with them for good. A week of smooth running without server overloading. I still don’t know why the f$#k that people want to hack daytradingbias. Seriously it is just a site for day traders …

So my schedule is finally back to normal as I don’t need to coordinate works among hardware vendors, anti-hacking experts and my team. Although the among of work piled up is still going to be overwhelming, at least my premium members can access the trading tools without problems.

Next in line will be upgrading daytradingbias to use secured connections. That should not cause major interruption to our site. Just a lot of tedious manual editing work.

Now that the main annoyance is over, I can concentrate on completing the other projects. My plan is to finish the voiceover on several video lessons next week and start uploading them asap. Several training tools for traders under development will be added soon too.

This article on Lee Holloway, the architect of Cloudflare, is a sad story that we should all be aware of. Sometimes illness happening right in front of us yet everyone take it as something else …

For those of you interested in investing and trading, here is a video with Ray Dalio discussing the current market situation on Apr 15. His take on the current situation and what he things will happen down the road can be useful as a theme for anyone wanting to profit from not just the current situation but also a very different future after the outbreak.

Back to work. And still letting my shoulder to rest as it has not fully recover yet.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update April 24, 2020

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Another week of life under lock-down here in Toronto. Yet everything are getting done as more people adapted to using the technologies they avoided in the past ten years. I now have meetings with lawyers who insisted to meet face to face in the past with zoom. e-Signing documents with people who have the misunderstanding that e-signature are not legally binding. Things changed a lot as people are forced to adapt to the tech world that has been there all along.

For those of you traders and investors, here is an article on CalPERS failure to protect its assets as explained by Nassim Taleb. Idiots who have no understanding of tail risk nor proper trading experience in derivatives are often put in positions to manage risk. And this is a prime example of people who think he knows what he is doing. Unluckily, this is the norm for 99% of the financial industry. Here is another one coming from Canada.

I am still waiting for the hosting company to upgrade daytradingbias web server. It has been a struggle with them for weeks now. I understand that the lock-down is affecting their ability to handle non-emergency work. I guess I just have to wait for this to get done while working on the video lessons …

I hurt my shoulder one morning and now can’t do much until it recovers. It will be interesting to see how fast I will recover from the injury given that I have all these toys that are supposed to improve the recovery speed. I will explain what they are when I get the chance. Next week I should know if they helps.

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TLC Weekly Update April 17, 2020

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An article on how these ancient computer systems are still in use today by the governments that leads to the mess we are seeing during this crisis. I know about this all along as I have friends who are expert in these old programming languages that are very well paid to maintain these systems. The sad thing is that transition to more modern computer technology is not likely because it implies automatically obsolete the existing management teams …

On YouTube Bloomberg channel there is a good video talking with Ray Dalio on his take on the current situation. I find his objective reasoning still as sharp, that the Fed has no choice but to choose who to save, and as an investor you have the choice to choose to invest based on that information. In other words, don’t mess with the Fed until they blow up.

DaytradingBias is undergoing major server upgrade these few weeks. After that we will also update the site itself again, this time to comply with the Google transition to so-called secure internet connection. All these will be done with the hope that users access will not be affected significantly.

After the hardware upgrade I will release my video lessons on the site. It should be good enough to handle the load by then.

Many people email me asking how the stock market keeps going higher as they see more and more people are out of work. Well, remember that the stock market by design is not a tool to reflect the true value of anything. During time of high uncertainty, the expectations of the future by the investors will not be as united as in stable time. And that creates extreme swings as people of opposite opinions duel it out.

It is really not the time to think about investing. All the major players I know of have stopped all their near term investment projects. Deals that are in the middle of negotiation are all dropped. All savvy investors are sitting this out until we have clarity. That’s common sense.

While I am waiting for the server upgrade this weekend, I will work on more video lessons.

Have a great weekend everyone!

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TLC Weekly Update April 10, 2020

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Easter Friday is a US market holiday. So, here I am taking my time to write this while drinking my morning coffee.

Another week of extreme market actions with US Federal Reserve going all-in with yet one more $2.3 Trillion bailout program on Thursday. We all know the claim that it is done to support the small and mid-sized businesses is just a lie. I don’t even want to guess which pockets those money will go into.

This is the fun part in watching all these news over the years on all these b.s. government aids claiming to do whatever for the economy. The money almost always ended up in the hands of those not targeted by these programs. It happens every single time. People choose to not vote for a reason – after years of disappointment in the actions of the politicians.

Can you blame them?

But US Federal Reserve governors and chairman are not even elected by the people …

I am asked about my view of the stock market. I have been bearish all along as I know the outbreak is something we cannot foretell if it is over. In addition, the end of the outbreak solves nothing. However, given the way Fed did what they did this week, I am guessing they are using the same 2019 playbook they did to print the market higher with the hope that people will turn into buyers again buying on all weaknesses.

It may not work this time, because all the stock market did was just 20% correction from year 2019 close. It is not even remotely corrected enough. That tells you how freak out the Fed really is. Remember baby boomers are not going to buy stocks from here. They are net sellers since year 2018. And the younger generations have no money in general, let alone investing in the stock market. The year 2019 run was hot-air created by the Fed and now that illusion is all gone.

The one nightmare the Fed trying to avoid is the redemption of index ETFs, once that started, it will not end well because it will exaggerate the declines that not even the Fed can put a brake on. Well, maybe they can if they start buying the stocks off the retirees now.

Switching to a happier topic here. No point grinding on doom and gloom.

Here is an article about college students constructing their colleges in the virtual world of Minecraft. Everything in scale and they even add special mods to Minecraft so that everything looks like the real things!

I am getting close to release my video lessons for TSB and ESDTC. The illustrations are taking more time to do as I am doing it myself. I used to sketch them by hand and then my staff will turn them into nice graphics magically. Well, good use of time though as we are all stuck at home until the lock-down is over.

Happy Easter!

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TLC Weekly Update April 3, 2020

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Another week of roller coaster ride with the stock markets worldwide. When I told the premium members that I expected after end of March S&P would collapse back down to around 2400, many were in disbelieve. Well, S&P tanked hard down to near 2400 on Wednesday. The timing sounds amazing but in fact it is just a simple observation.

What I noticed is that everyone suddenly turned into experts on COVID-19. That, of course, includes all these financial analysts coming out with their fancy projections and forecasts. However, from the medical papers published by the scientists, I’ve learned that we actually know almost nothing about the virus so far. Even the specialists who are studying the virus do not know enough about it to make any sensible projections on when and how the outbreak will be contained.

When we do not even know what we are dealing with, how can we produce meaningful projections?

So all these firms are selling a fast bottom to drum up business, nothing more.

The consequence is more downside once they run out of suckers. Of course, sometimes people get lucky and if this outbreak suddenly disappear for good, I am all for that. It is a nightmare that this world is not ready for.

I am wrapping up several videos this week. The first one is out on youtube already. It is a quick reminder on what to pay attention to when day trading Emini S&P during crisis. Check it out!

I am still working on the full length lessons for Trading Success Blueprint and Emini S&P Day Trading Course. Due to the self isolation rule here, I am working with minimal help from others at the moment. It feels nostalgic in a way that it reminds me of doing research on trading models alone decades ago. I hope that I can put out something within a week or so.

I came across this video with Sadhguru’s explanation on why meditation does not work for many. He summarizes this so well. If you find meditation is not doing anything for you, you probably need to watch this. It also reminded me to produce a lesson on meditation for traders since it is an integral part of TSB.

Will take a break this afternoon and resume working over the weekend.

Have a great weekend all!

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TLC Weekly Update March 27, 2020

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Another week of lockdown here in Toronto. Retail stores like Home Depot here are now restricting the number of customers allowed in the store to enforce the social distancing rule. Majority of the restaurants are closed and just a few out there, including McDonald’s of course, are open for take-out and delivery. People still go out to walk though as weather here has finally rise to about 10C.

I watched this fascinating video about dynamic systems by Veritasium on YouTube. By using visualization, the video explained clearly how that one equation turns out to be so important in almost everything around us. I like the video a lot because my discovery on price behaviour also lead to the same Feigenbaum constant 4.669 in price patterns. If you are a trader, pay attention to the way how linear stability exists inside the seemingly chaotic patterns.

I have been catching up with a lot of reading and writing lately as meetings are not scheduled anywhere. Even if there is the need to meet, we now use video chat or conference instead. All universities here now conduct the courses online. I wonder if the world will really go back to the old way of schooling at all since all these technologies are now being used, and that they work so well, physical locations no longer matter for these higher education institutions.

Schedule is still extremely packed as I like to get more things done yet it is hard to coordinate people getting projects completed. Everyone has to struggle with the restrictions imposed on us from kids staying home to long line up to buy essentials. Given the situation I guess my best bet is to work on a number of the projects all by myself until the lockdown is over.

Stay safe and Have a great weekend!

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TLC Weekly Update March 20, 2020

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Another week of extreme market conditions with the world under siege by the pandemic, when will things getting back to normal?

I was out doing some banking. Yes, there are still things that has to be done at a branch. The bank staff are all wearing masks with signs telling us to stay at least a meter away given the government’s instruction of social distancing.

Majority of the restaurants are closed. Some small shops are open doing take-out and delivery orders. McDonalds and other fast food chains are open doing the same without dine-in. Life still goes on. People are adapting to the situation.

For chess lovers, I watched this video of Josh Waitzkin playing chess at 11-year old. It is an incredible game where the sacrifice looks like a mistake which led to Josh’s opponent did not think deeply what the move implies. It is a great lesson to anyone whose line of work has a strategic component that the ultimate purpose of your project, business or trading matters more than the perceived notion of material need.

Since many of us are staying home, may I suggest reading books instead of binge watching movies and TV shows online? If you are a trader, you can check out The Obstacle Is The Way by Ryan Holiday. For atheists and those who feel uncomfortable reading books about religion, I think you should checkout Awareness: The Perils and Opportunities of Reality by Anthony De Mello.

I am getting close to produce several video lessons for DaytradingBias. Originally my intention was to do it in a lecture hall or presentation room setting. Well, I guess those options are now no longer available. So, I will do it at home instead. Whatever it takes to bring these useful learning materials online.

Have a great weekend all and stay safe!

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TLC Weekly Update March 13, 2020

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People everywhere I bump into asked if I am doing alright when the stock markets worldwide falling apart. Obviously they are not traders. And depending on their tone,I can tell some of them have this schadenfreude high. Schadenfreude means pleasure derived from another person’s misfortune. I think you get the point. There are always people like that.

In order to avoid a lengthy discussion of the topic, I would just say, “Oh, really? I am busy with other things lately.”

It is already difficult to tell a beginner trader about the current trading environment. It is even more difficult to get the point across with someone who has all kinds of incorrect beliefs about trading and investing in general. And if any part of the explanation includes me making a handsome profit during this time, it will open a big can of worms …

So I kept my mouth shut to have some peace.

Interesting read on fasting that may help you to get better sleep. Some of my friends always have to eat something round the clock. I just sent them this article. I will follow up to see if any of them would give it a try. I am eager to see what the results are.

Will take a break this weekend after a week long hectic trading. In high volatility environment, when the stock market is swing hundreds of points in the Dow Jones Industrial Average every few minutes, lots of concentration is needed to do things right. And that takes a toll on the brain. It is important to keep a clear head if you choose to trade in this environment. You can make a lot of money quickly, but you can also lose as much money, if not more, in even shorter period of time.

Good news is that I am finally wrapping up one project this week. Although there are many more to go, I can see a few more will be done in coming two months. Very happy with the progress I made.

Talking about progress, I managed to double my pull-ups but it really hurts. At my age, it is much harder to recover from injuries. I guess I have to take it slow. Train smarter, not harder.

Have a great weekend all!

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Mercury Retrograde: Blessing in Disguise

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Everyone talks about Mercury retrograde as if it is a time of trouble. This year (2020) Mercury retrograde from February 16 to March 9, then in June 18 to July 12 and once more in October 13 to November 3. We are about to see the end of the first retrograde period. Let’s sum up my experience so far with this retrograde.

The famous electronic device failing issue:

  • my cell phone used up all its battery once
  • one of my UPS (uninterruptable power supply) battery suddenly died
  • my laptop suddenly dropped its speed to 0.4G
  • my remote trading server works fine, but Tradestation crashed like an hour before market close

The famous communication issue:

  • I ask for one document, people give me something else all together, several times
  • Some deals just stuck on unimportant points

Is it a time that we are supposed to experience more hiccups? Sure.

But should we be afraid of it? Hell no.

Learn to make use of the positive side of Mercury retrograde is what matter most.

Instead of pushing hard on getting deals done, I know it is a time to take things slow and review documents carefully. So things may not progress as fast as I like, at the same time I get to hammer out all the details with time to spare.

This is also the best time to push hard on conducting research projects. As someone who spend a lot of time studying the financial markets. This is the best time for me to review what I have done in the past and see if I can improve on what I have accomplished before. Even past research that ended up not useful can become inspiration of a new research direction.

During this retrograde, I found one significant flaw in one of my trading models that leads to the large drawdown that I do not feel comfortable trading. This particular problem is there for 12 long years since I started trading the model. Some of you may recognize that 12 years is also an important cycle.

The breakthrough to this issue helps me drop the drawdown on this model by half. And in turn, the new research helps me applying similar ideas to a number of other models to improve their trading stability. I never thought I can improve these trading models any further until now.

I am very happy with the results.

The key to utilize Mercury retrograde is to first dive deep into research / study something important to you before the retrograde at least several weeks prior. Then revisit the subject again during the retrograde to see if you can gain new insights. Incorporate the new insights to further your understanding of the subject. It’s effectively a hack to gain expertise quickly.

I am looking forward to the next Mercury retrograde already.

Mercury retrograde is really a blessing in disguise for traders and anyone who conduct serious research.